The Deepest Dive: QB Sleepers in 16+ Team Leagues

May 24, 2020

Antonio Losada evaluates ADP data related to deep fantasy football leagues and comes up with quarterbacks that can become valuable QB sleepers in 16-plus team leagues and formats.

Can you name every fantasy league you played in last season? Probably not. But can you think of their average structure? The most probable question is yes because most leagues are often comprised of 8 to 12 teams with 15 roster spots each and use the now-standard PPR format of scoring. That is not always the case, though, and some fantasy GMs engage in way deeper leagues yearly in order to have a tougher challenge in their hands.

Fantasy leagues can be as large as the commish wants them to be, but for our purposes, we're going to define a deep league as one in which at least 16 teams take part. That means that each draft round would consist of 16 picks and that there would be 240 (15 rounds multiplied by 16 teams) players drafted overall. So for this exercise, I will be looking at players with ADP over 240 using a dataset comprised from drafts based on leagues with such structure. The data comes from PPR-format leagues, and whenever I mention stats, projections, and fantasy points those would all be spoken of on the basis of that format.

Here is a look at four quarterbacks that can be considered sleepers in super deep, 16-plus teams leagues. Keep an eye on them and track their presence on the draft board as they can become interesting pieces down the road during the development of the 2020 season!

Marcus Mariota, Las Vegas Raiders

ADP: 270

There is no denying Marcus Mariota's fall from grace last season. Although the real-life Titans made the right choice in benching Mariota after starting six games with a 2-4 record, the truth is that Mariota was still a valuable asset for fantasy GMs. During the first five weeks of the season (the only games he started and finished) Mariota threw for an average of 223.2 yards per game and launched seven total TD while scoring 19.3 PPG. The sample is small, sure, but that fantasy average would have ranked 18th by season's end that's almost a QB1 in 16-team leagues and a surefire one in deeper ones.

How things have changed in just 12 months. Last summer, Mariota entered the 2019 season as a starter, was named QB1 six times, then got benched (yet he still hoped Ryan Tannehill dropped the ball and allowed him back), and now is the clear backup for a long-time starter in the Raiders' Derek Carr. BUT Derek Carr is far from a sure thing in Las Vegas. Carr's future with the Raiders is murky at best, and we would witness a reverse-Mariota being pulled off in Las Vegas this season. That means that Mariota could turn into a starter no later than a few weeks into the schedule.

Drafting Mariota is a gamble, sure, but super deep leagues call for these types of moves. If Mariota turns into a starter you'll be getting a potential QB1 for peanuts. Looking at Mariota's projections for the 2020 season yields a false image or at least a skewed one due to him not being the starter from Week 1. If we average the numbers, though, he should approach 30 attempts and 20 completions per game, around 218 yards per contest, and 1.4 TDs (basically 3 TDs every two games) for an average of 19 PPG again. Nobody would pass on that at the price Mariota is going these days.

Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles

ADP: 252

It is impossible to find true bargains with such cheap ADP, so one has to play the cards, gamble, and hope for the best. Consider Hurts a quarterback-handcuff with huge upside. The Philadelphia Eagles quarterback depth goes two-levels deep in that it will feature Carson Wentz and rookie Hurts. Any other option should be off the table for Philly. Now, if you know anything about Wentz, it's how he's dealt with health issues during his whole career. He missed three games in 2017, five in 2018, and only last year could he come back to a full 16-games played season. Will that hold in 2020?

Same as with Mariota, Hurts' fantasy value is entirely out of his control. And in this case, even more than in Mariota's. Even if Wentz goes on to have a rather bad season he will probably hold onto the starting role for the whole year as Hurts is levels below Mariota in terms of experience. There is no real way for Hurts to make it to the field if there is not an injury interfering in Wentz's year.

If that happens and Wentz is forced out, though, Hurts has everything to thrive in the current NFL. While it'd be a tad too much to call Hurts the next Lamar Jackson, his profile definitely mimics that of the reigning MVP. For a more realistic comp, though, you can think of Robert Griffin III. Hurts is a threat on the ground, the Eagles clearly saw something in him by drafting the Oklahoma product 53th-overall, and his arm isn't that bad. Dual-threat QBs are the rulers of the current NFL landscape. Bet on Hurts--and hope for Wentz getting injured--and you'll get a winner.

Jacoby Brissett, Indianapolis Colts

ADP: 323

Philip Rivers is a mountain of a man. He's also entering his age-39 season and although he has played every single game without missing a single one since 2005 (his sophomore season, only because he wasn't starting at all) you never know when father time will come calling. The odds of Rivers falling down to injury are pretty small, that's right, but if it happens then Brissett would be the one stepping up and Brissett is at least a QB1.5 in this league.

What do I mean by that? Well, Brissett was forced to start last season for the Colts amid Andrew Luck's unexpected retirement (which made him a QB1 in Indy's plans) but he didn't play overly great football (which made him a QB2 in fantasy leagues). Average both things and you get your beloved QB1.5. Brissett played 15 games last season and he was very close to reaching 3,000 yards and 20 touchdowns on the year. His average PPG was a little low (14.5) but it is not that the Colts had a lot of weapons to help his efforts on offense.

Those numbers are a dream for 2020, though, as Brissett is obviously entering the season as the clear-cut backup to Rivers, the marquee FA-signee of Indianapolis. Betting on Hurts starting games is somehow reasonable due to Wentz's history. Betting on Brissett is a riskier proposition as Rivers seems to be made of steel. Even with that, though, it is not that you'll find much better players that could turn into very serious fantasy assets if stars align a bit for them with a 320-plus (!) ADP.

Cam Newton, Free Agent

ADP: 242

If this is not the gamble of gambles then I don't know what is at this point. The league is not colluding against Cam Newton. Newton is still available as a free agent just because of the pandemic these days. But can you think of a better player not being signed this deep into the offseason? Remember that Newton was the MVP of the NFL in 2015, was named no. 1 player in the league in 2017, and made the top-100 every year from 2012 to 2019 without interruption, all of that being named to the Pro Bowl in 2011, 2013, and 2015. That's insane, and Newton is still 31 years old.

Just two years ago, already missing two games, Newton finished as the QB13 in total PPR points and averaged 20.2 PPG, the eight-highest mark in the league among quarterbacks. He passed for 3,395 yards, threw 24 TD, and on top of that he was able to add 488 yards and four more touchdowns on the ground. Newton brings the complete package, full stop.

Where Newton ends up is still an unanswered question, but he will land somewhere, and if he's healthy to make it to the field I have zero doubts he will do so and end the season as a starter. It's just a matter of time for him to find a place brave enough to forget about the past and see Newton for what he is, a league winner without a team that carries 20-plus PPG potential with him and who these days has an ADP lower than those of players such as Case Keenum, Brian Hoyer, RG3, Tyrod Taylor, or Andy Dalton just to name a few.

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