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Analysis of five fantasy baseball starting pitchers drafted in the later rounds. Are these SP undervalued players and potential sleepers to target in deeper drafts?
Once you reach the middle-to-late rounds of drafts, it would be smart to consider drafting some upside fliers that can provide a great return on value. You can take a risk or two on a variety of different players, including a prospect, forgotten veterans, players returning from injuries, or even players with skills but have playing time concerns. It is essential to know the player pool so you can take a chance at a spot in the draft that you're comfortable without deviating from your overall strategy.
Today we are looking at some late-round starting pitchers for you to consider. Do we think they are draft targets or players to avoid? Are their ADPs undervalued? Will they make significant fantasy contributions and be one of your later-round draft sleepers? Read on to see our take.
Our editors have hand-picked these specific MLB players for your draft prep enjoyment. Normally only available to Premium subscribers, the five outlooks below are meant to give you a taste of the in-depth analysis you receive with our industry-leading 2020 Draft Kit. Be sure to subscribe today and start reading all 400+ of our 2020 player outlooks, and many other premium articles and tools, available exclusively in our 2020 Draft Kit.
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Kenta Maeda — SP/RP, Minnesota Twins
Maeda had a successful season, and the future might be even brighter with a trade that sent him to the Minnesota Twins. Maeda started 2019 in the rotation, but he was moved to the bullpen in September. The timing of the move is questionable, but the Dodgers have always played musical rotation spots with their starters.
On the whole, Maeda finished the year with a 4.04 ERA (3.95 FIP) and a 27.1% K-rate, buoyed by a 33.9% strikeout rate in the bullpen. He also adjusted his repertoire usage during 2019. Maeda threw his four-seam fastball (37.4%) less often than previous seasons, preferring the slider (30.8%) and change-up (23.8%) more than usual. The move to the bullpen led to "slider city," as Maeda slung it nearly 60% of the time. The result was a career-best Chase (34.8%) and Swinging Strike (14.6%) rates in 2019.
Maeda will start 2020 in the Twins rotation, and his consistent velocity (92 mph) provides reassurance of a repeat performance. Maeda also benefits from wonderful offensive support. With a dedicated spot in the rotation, Maeda's value will skyrocket, making his current 196 ADP a bargain while you can still get it.
Lance McCullers Jr. — SP, Houston Astros
McCullers is set to make his return to the mound in 2020 after missing all of 2019 while recovering from Tommy John surgery. The talented right-hander went 10-6 with a 3.86 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in 2018 before the injury. When he's on the mound, McCullers is a talented arm which uses an offspeed-heavy approach, almost fully abandoning his four-seam fastball in 2018. He features a curve and change-up that both have a PutAway% of 25 or greater with the changeup registering a 6.8 pVAL in 2018. His SwStr% rose to an elite 13.5% in 2018, and his K-BB% was a solid 17.5%, which is further evidence of McCullers' strikeout upside when he's healthy.
The only concern for the 2020 season is that the Astros have said they'll cap McCullers' innings around 120. How they will do that is anybody's guess. If McCullers gets put on the IL, fantasy owners can then pick up an SP to take his place, which would make him a great value at his current ADP of 195. However, if he is shuffled up and down between AAA (he has two MiLB options left) or transferred to the bullpen for a stretch, it will be hard to keep him rostered and accrue value. He's a talent that is worth taking a chance on at the back end of a fantasy rotation, but owners should make sure they can make up for his innings elsewhere.
Andrew Heaney — SP, Los Angeles Angels
Heaney had a 4-6 record with a 4.91 ERA in his 95 1/3 IP in 2019, but the 28-year-old's peripherals suggest that he could be much better in 2020. First, he'll presumably have a clean bill of health after two separate IL stints with left shoulder inflammation a season ago. Heaney also had a 4.18 xFIP in 2019, suggesting that his ERA could be much-improved if his 18.3% HR/FB drifts toward the league average. However, the biggest reason to want Heaney is his 28.9% strikeout rate last season.
Heaney generates strikeouts with a three-pitch mix: sinker, curve, and change. While sinkers generally don't help generate strikeouts, he offers a very high spin rate (2,524 RPM) and Active Spin percentage (94%), which makes it more of a good four-seamer (11.5 SwStr%, 62.6 Zone%) than a traditional sinker. His curve is a true wipeout pitch, making up for a low 28.4 Zone% with a 42.3% chase rate and 19.3 SwStr%. His change is the weakest of the three pitches, but it flashes potential as well (15 SwStr%, 46.9 Zone%, 34.1% chase).
Heaney should also be in line for improved run support with the addition of Anthony Rendon to the Angels offense, and the defensive wizardry of Andrelton Simmons (16 Outs Above Average last season) could help Heaney as well. Overall, Heaney's 186.94 ADP is a bargain for a pitcher who could have SP2 upside in fantasy.
Masahiro Tanaka — SP, New York Yankees
Tanaka has been one of the league's most inconsistent starting pitchers since first entering the MLB in 2014. Last year, Tanaka, unfortunately, had one of his worst overall seasons, and it was a significant drop-off from 2018. Tanaka went 11-9 with a 4.45 ERA and career-worst 1.242 WHIP in 2019. His split-finger, which was once an absolutely dominant pitch, took a significant step back. His first year in the league, he induced a swinging-strike rate of 28.2% from the pitch, but last year that dropped to 11.2%. His overall strikeout rate of 19.6% in 2019 was a massive drop from 2018's 25% mark, and 2018 also saw Tanaka post a solid 3.75 ERA and 1.13 WHIP.
Tanaka has excelled in keeping his walks low since entering the league, and that didn't change last year as he maintained a 5.3% walk rate. No matter how volatile he may be, he shouldn't ever kill you in WHIP. He currently has an ADP of about 236, which means that fantasy owners are certainly scared off from the 2019 down year. Tanaka's win potential makes him a great value at his current ADP, but expect some rough outings along the way in 2020.
Ryan Yarbrough — SP/RP, Tampa Bay Rays
Yarbrough had a solid 2019 for Tampa Bay but was a bit of an enigma for fantasy baseball. The Rays, pioneers of the opener strategy, did a great job of using Yarbrough as efficiently as they could, making it tough to gauge his true skill set compared to other pitchers. Yarbrough made 14 starts and was used as the bulk reliever 14 times, so the Rays picked their spots to hide Yarbrough from the top of their opponent's batting order, and it helped his numbers.
Yarbrough won 11 games with a 4.13 ERA and a sparkling 1.00 WHIP thanks to a minuscule 3.6 percent walk rate. Where he really excelled, however, is limiting hard contact. Among pitchers with at least 300 batted ball events, Yarbrough easily led the league with an elite 84.1 MPH average exit velocity. He was one of only two pitchers with an average exit velocity on fly balls under 90 MPH. Lack of hard contact helps make up for the fact Yarbrough won't help in strikeouts as his career strikeout rate is just 20.6 percent.
Tampa Bay will likely continue to use him in a bulk-reliever role giving him plenty of win potential while helping in WHIP. He won't be a must-start fantasy option, but for a pick outside the top-250 overall, he is worth a late-round flier as a bench pitcher to use in good matchups.
