Week 4 Consistency Reports - All Positions

September 29, 2018

Measuring fantasy football performance using consistency data. Ben Rolfe takes a look at QB, RB, WR, and TE numbers through the first three weeks of the season and what that might mean for them going forward.

Three weeks may still seem too early to be assessing consistency but if you look at the tables below you can see that already the best fantasy options are beginning to rise to the top. We can already see just how inconsistent tight ends and to some extent running backs are compared to wide receivers and quarterbacks. You may also see some surprising names high on the lists but you need to cross reference the COR numbers with the players ceiling. For example starting a player like Ito Smith who has a high COR rating but a ceiling of just six fantasy points does not make sense. This is especially prevalent at the tight end position, where there are some low scoring options high up in the COR rankings.

The information I am going to use in this articles comes from FFstatistics.com, founded by the person who used to write this article, Addison Hayes. Here are the links to the main articles last year where Addison introduced his key terms. The three main elements are standard deviation (explained here), calculations of players floors and ceiling (explained here) and then finally the use of the Coefficient of Variation to calculate Consistency Ratings or COR (explained here). This paragraph is going to be present a lot this year for those of you interested in the math behind the numbers below.

A final note for this article is that although this article will be published following Thursday Night Football, the numbers from those games will not be included. I will also be unlikely to touch on those players unless they stand out as major players you should be targeting on the following weeks waiver wires. Therefore, do not be surprised to not see much mention of Minnesota Vikingss or Los Angeles Rams players below.

Quarterbacks

The table above (and each table in the article) is sorted by players 2018 COR through three games from largest to smallest. After three weeks worth of data the COR values are truly starting to reflect what we have seen with our eyes this season. Patrick Mahomes has been other worldly with 13 touchdowns but he will face his biggest test so far on the road at Denver Monday night. If he can be good there then we could have a legitimately stunning talent on our hands. We also have Ryan Fitzpatrick who had a wobble in the second quarter last Monday but pulled it out in the second half. Again this week will be a tough test but while he is starting for the Buccaneers you have to keep rolling with him.

Very interesting to see Russell Wilson in third place. It feels like Wilson has been disappointing but what he provides is solid production. Joe Flacco in fifth is another name interestingly high and now he gets to go against a very poor Steelers defense on Sunday night.

Lower down on the chart we surprisingly find Tom Brady who has really struggled this year. With Josh Gordon closer to being healthy and Julian Edelman back next week it will be interesting to see how he fairs over the next few weeks. Matthew Stafford's numbers look bad because of the Week 1 performance but he always has the possibility to put up decent points totals.

Running Backs

James White remains an interesting name near the top of this list. It is clear Brady trusts him more than the other backs so we should see plenty of him in the passing game. Javorius Allen in sixth is a little misleading as he has been extremely touchdown dependent. Saying that, he is seeing the majority of the rushes in the red zone so far. Most of the rest of the top-15 are names you would expect to find apart from Ito Smith and Malcolm Brown but their average points total makes them semi-irrelevant in this conversation.

Isaiah Crowell and Kerryon Johnson just inside the top-30 will continue to be frustrating while they are competing for touches in that backfield. If either of those could get a leg-up on their situation they could become a valuable weekly starter. David Johnson at 29 is extremely frustrating as the Cardinals are using him in such a bizarre way. You have to keep starting him but unless they commit to him more going forward he is going to be a frustrating option.

Lower on the list we have some other guys who are stuck in competitions and touch-shares and are frustrating. Dion Lewis, Derrick Henry, Chris Carson and Bilal Powell are prime examples of guys that are extremely hard to trust until we see whether they start getting more of the carries. The final name I wanted to mention is Giovani Bernard who appears 50th. His complete lack of Week 1 performance hurts his consistency ranking through three week. However, playing in Atlanta makes him a must-start this week.

Wide Receivers

Danny Amendola is probably the only odd name out in the top-15. Interesting names include Kenny Golladay and Chris Godwin who are both now legit fantasy receivers. Will Fuller is always a start when he is active and Tyler Lockett could see some inconsistent weeks coming with Doug Baldwin returning from injury.

There is a lot of quality in 20-30 range. DeAndre Hopkins and Odell Beckham Jr. are hurt by the ineffectiveness of their teams offensive lines. T.Y. Hilton is having to reinvent himself a little as Andrew Luck appears unable to throw the ball downfield. Julio Jones, Tyreek Hill and Marvin Jones are all in teams which have a ton of offensive weapons, meaning their production is going to be hit-or-miss on a week-to-week basis.

Five names stand out in the 40s. Sammy Watkins is going to have tough weeks with all the weapons in Kansas City. Allen Robinson is suffering due to Mitchell Trubisky's struggles. Demaryius Thomas has suffered from some drops, especially in Week 2 and is becoming a major concern for me. Calvin Ridley has had three absolutely extreme weeks, from a zero-point performance in Week 1 through to a three touchdown performance in Week 3. Right now he is a must-start but beware the potential for a sudden down week. Corey Davis has not been helped by the constant changing of quarterback in Tennessee but with Delanie Walker out the Titans are likely to need to rely on their round one pick from last season.

Tight Ends

This is always the position that drives people nuts from a consistency point of view and the COR ranking being so low compared to the other positions reflects that. Jordan Reed looks to finally be healthy and you have to ride him while he is on the field. O.J. Howard appears to have asserted himself in that Buccaneers offense and I expect him to be a big part again this week.

Rob Gronkowski is having a tough year but he is not getting much help. That offense is such a mess that defenses can double team Gronkowski without fear of being beaten elsewhere. Once Edelman and Gordon come into this offense then Gronkowski should have more success.

Jimmy Graham is as frustrating as we feared he would be in the Packers offense. They seem unable to work out how best to use the tight end in Green Bay and Graham is becoming a potential drop candidate. Trey Burton is also struggling due to his quarterback but I still think that offense can improve and I would stick it out with him.

More Fantasy Football Analysis