X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Five Undervalued NL Starting Pitcher Targets for 2016 Drafts

The National League is simply loaded with elite pitching. You could miss out on most of the top ranked guys and still find yourself with an abundance of options heading into the middle rounds. Still, it's important to know what you're looking for when those later rounds approach and there are holes to fill at SP on your roster. Finding hidden value at the starting pitcher position could make or break the final outcome of your 2016 fantasy squad.

Some of the guys we're about to discuss do not exactly qualify as sleepers, per se. But, with the plethora of quality pitching available, these players may drop far lower than their true value suggests. Let's take a look at how you can secure some of the NL's most dependable and exciting pitchers for a cheap price come draft day.

Editor's note: You can find more draft values and potential sleepers in our running list all preseason long, and be sure to also check out our rankings dashboard which is loaded with lots of great analysis.

 

Starting Pitcher Draft Values - National League

Adam Wainwright (STL, ADP 71.3)

NL Pitcher Rank - 14th

Analysis: Let's start by acknowledging the abundance of red flags surrounding Wainwright. Chiefly, he'll be turning 35 in August and nobody wants to take a gamble in the early rounds on aging pitchers. Also, it's worth noting that he's coming off a significant injury after missing most of the 2015 season with a torn Achilles tendon. Above all else, it's difficult to even qualify Wainwright as a sleeper - he's ranked among the ranks of other elite pitchers in a national League that is stacked with top-tier talent.

Even still, the ranking is too low for Wainwright. This is a man who has finished among the top-3 Cy Young vote-getters for each of his past four full seasons. Over the past six years, he boasts a 2.80 ERA, 8.0 K/9 and a 1.11 WHIP, despite a 2010 Tommy John surgery. It's unreasonable to expect Wainwright to finish among the Cy Young contenders in his twelfth MLB season. However, it's ridiculous to consider him over the hill. The torn Achilles is not the type of injury to incur long-term consequences. Though he's thrown the fastball less and less over the past few seasons, his velocity has not significantly declined, still hovering in the 90 mph range. Most importantly, that curveball is still nasty and will continue to rack up strike outs. With 997 curveballs thrown over the past two seasons (that is, all of 2014 and the brief stint in 2015 before the Achilles injury) Wainwright has struck out 105 batters and kept opposing hitters to a .149 AVG. If he can stay healthy, Wainwright is a lock for another fantastic season, and will most certainly contribute in the win category by leading a perennially potent Cardinals club.

 

Steven Matz (NYM, ADP 129.7)

NL Pitcher Rank - 27th

Analysis: Matz started 14 games at the Triple-A level in 2015 with the Port Saint-Lucie Mets. In those 90.1 innings pitched, Matz recorded a 2.19 ERA, racked up 94 strike outs and yielded just six home runs. The Long Island native may have seen some success in the minors, but pitching in the big leagues is a much different story. Not true for Matz. In six starts near the end of the season for the Mets, (after missing a few months with a lat injury) the 24 year-old maintained a steady 2.27 ERA en route to a 4-0 record, not to mention extended success in the postseason.

Somehow, Matz is still among the least fear-invoking pitchers in the Mets rotation. For fantasy purposes, that's actually good news. Matz won't have to endure the challenge of facing rival aces in marquee matchups as often as the likes of Matt Harvey and Jacob deGrom, likely giving him a better chance to succeed. Matz still needs a wider Major League portfolio to prove his worth, but in many ways he is more promising than fellow pitchers lumped in this ranking bracket. For example, Raisel Iglesias (another rookie in 2015) holds a ton of promise heading into 2016, making him the 20th ranked NL pitcher on FantasyPros. Though Iglesias pitched 60 more innings than Matz in the MLB (not to mention Iglesias was promoted to a flailing Reds club while Matz entered a playoff-bound title contender), Matz proved to be much more effective on the mound. Namely, Matz boasted an ERA nearly two full points lower than that of Iglesias (4.15). In all fairness, Iglesias shows much more strikeout potential, but Matz clearly seems like the most reliable option. I would certainly rather snag Matz than the other pitchers in his vicinity, including Gio Gonzalez and Patrick Corbin.

 

Raisel Iglesias (CIN, ADP 144.0)

NL Pitcher Rank - 20th

Analysis: Okay, forget everything I just said about Matz - Have you seen what Iglesias can do? The 26 year-old Cuban rookie blew batters away in an abbreviated 2015 MLB stint, evidenced by his 9.82 K/9 ratio. That figure was good for sixth in the NL among qualified starting pitchers. Not bad for a rookie. In all fairness, being ranked at 20th in the NL at the brink of his first full season is quite the accolade, considering he is among big-time guys like James Shields and Shelby Miller. So, why is he being drafted behind guys like Steven Matz when strikeouts reign supreme in fantasy baseball?

Well, his 4.15 ERA might be a daunting figure for some. Among the other top-10 NL finishers in K/9 for the 2015 season, Iglesias' ERA was the highest by a noticeable margin. But much of that had to do with luck. In the Cuban league, Iglesias was known much more for his control than his strikeout ability. After all, this is a guy who can just barely touch 95 mph on the radar gun, and that's on a good day. His 3.55 FIP is not too far off from Matz' 3.61 figure. The shallow confines of the Great American Ballpark are not doing him many favors. But all of the metrics point toward a lower ERA in 2016. Unfortuantely, that may coordinate with a regression in the strike out department. Either way, Iglesias is one of the key high-ceiling guys heading into next season and could be a quality pickup if he lingers into the middle rounds. Be careful of Reds fans in your league, they will likely be keeping an eye on him from the outset of the draft.

 

Wei-Yin Chen (MIA, ADP 208.0)

NL Pitcher Rank - 32nd

Analysis: Chen has quietly staked a reputation for himself as one of the league's most consistent and reliable pitchers over the past few seasons. While the Orioles organization was plagued by disappointing seasons from promising stars like Chris Tillman and Kevin Gausman in 2015, Chen silently carried the load for the team and provided ample support for a high-powered offense to get the job done. He delivered quality starts in 21 of 31 starts and allowed more than three earned runs on just four occasions, never allowing more than six. All of this paid off in 2015 in the form of a respectable 3.34 ERA. He struggled with the long ball, (28 HR, good for a 1.3 HR/9 rate) but never let games get out of hand.

Listen - Chen is not going to blow people away. His strikeout numbers are underwhelming, but they won't kill your fantasy team. That's the best thing about Chen - he won't kill you in any category, as many high-ceiling guys being taken before him undoubtedly will. He may not have as much luck in the win category in 2016 playing for a lowly Marlins squad. With that being said, his home run problems should be alleviated in Marlins park as compared to a hitter-friendly Camden Yards. Chen has managed more and more control with each passing season, as shown by his steadily declining ERA totals (4.07 in 2013, 3.54 in 2014, 3.34 in 2015). In his age 30 season this year, there's no reason to believe his concentration should waver. At the end of the day, Chen's security is worth more than Andrew Cashner's uncertainty or the shakiness of other pitchers taken before him, such as Alex Wood and Jason Hammel. He may not produce many complete game shutouts, but Chen will be a great asset for an already strong team.

 

Tanner Roark (WSH, ADP 338.0)

NL Pitcher Rank - 61st

Analysis: Ranking Roark this low should be considered criminal. There are multiple guys ranked above him who will miss great swaths of the season with injuries and a handful of guys above him who are flat out no good. Now, I'm sure many of you are thinking the same thing right now - who even is Tanner Roark? It's a fair thought, considering he spent the entirety of 2015 in the Nationals bullpen and didn't even have much success there (4.38 ERA, 1.306 WHIP). The only lesson those numbers teach me is that Roark has no place in the pen. His true calling is as a starting pitcher.

OK, that may be a bit melodramatic. It starts to sound more realistic when you take a closer look at what Roark did as a starter for the Nats in 2014. In 31 starts, Roark finished the season with a 2.85 ERA, 1.092 WHIP and a 138/39 K/BB ratio. Roark's success can be most impressively quantified by his 5.1 WAR, good for sixth in the NL and placing him among the ranks of Jake Arrieta and teammate Jordan Zimmermann, both Cy Young contenders that year. Somehow, Roark's success was completely overlooked, despite the fact that he saw much more consistent success than the likes of Stephen Strasburg and Gio Gonzalez. It's extremely unlikely that Roark will find the same success as his 2014 campaign. However, he will be in the starting rotation after the club traded away Zim and Doug Fister. 61st is simply too low. In most draft formats, he may not be chosen at all. If he's still lurking near the final rounds of your draft, he can be an incredibly value pickup as his consistency is almost a guarantee and his upside is sky-high.

 

MLB & Fantasy Baseball Chat Room

[iflychat_embed id="c-12" hide_user_list="yes" hide_popup_chat="no" height="400px"]

 


Check out RotoBaller's entire fantasy baseball waiver wire pickups and sleepers list, updated daily!




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Aaron Wiggins

Sidelined Friday
Luguentz Dort

 Questionable for Friday
Chet Holmgren

Available for Friday's Matchup With Kings
Zach LaVine

Set to Return Friday
Domantas Sabonis

Questionable to Suit Up Friday
Terance Mann

Considered Probable for Friday's Cup Game
Taurean Prince

Questionable to Play Bulls
Dean Wade

Out Against Wizards
Ayo Dosunmu

Questionable for Friday's Game
Kelly Olynyk

Tagged as Questionable for Friday
Jeremy Sochan

Listed as Questionable for Meeting With Rockets
Steven Adams

May Remain Out Friday
Collin Sexton

Listed as Probable for Friday
Dereck Lively II

Expected to Return Next Week
Caris LeVert

Questionable for Friday
Grayson Allen

Good to Go Thursday
Jalen Green

Upgraded to Available
De'Aaron Fox

Not Ready to Play Friday
De'Andre Hunter

on Track to Return Friday
Lonzo Ball

to Sit Out Friday's Game
Tobias Harris

Out on Friday
Brock Purdy

Getting Closer, Still Questionable for Week 10
Chris Godwin

Might Not Return Until Late November, Early December
Daniel Jones

Colts Believe in Daniel Jones as Their Franchise QB
Puka Nacua

Practices in Full, Says he Feels Good
A.J. Brown

Listed as Full Participant in Thursday's Practice
Saquon Barkley

Practicing in Full Coming Out of Bye Week
Kyle Tucker

Headlines List of 13 Players to Receive Qualifying Offers
Pete Fairbanks

Becomes a Free Agent
Filip Hallander

Out Against Capitals
Tyson Kozak

Available Versus Blues
Cody Glass

Returns to Action Thursday
Connor Brown

Out on Thursday
Mats Zuccarello

Could Be an Option Friday
Matt Duchene

Remains Out Thursday
Harold Fannin Jr.

Misses Practice With Hamstring Injury
Roope Hintz

a Game-Time Call Thursday
CFB

Luke Fickell Will Return as Wisconsin's Head Coach in 2026
NFL

Antonio Brown Extradited to the United States on Attempted Murder Charge
Aaron Jones Sr.

Returns to Practice in a Limited Capacity on Thursday
D'Andre Swift

on Track to Return After Full Practice
A.J. Brown

Back at Practice After Bye Week
Saquon Barkley

Practicing on Thursday
Rhamondre Stevenson

Misses Another Practice, Availability in Doubt
Garrett Wilson

Cleared for Week 10 Matchup
Rico Dowdle

Back at Practice on Thursday
Bo Bichette

Blue Jays Extend Qualifying Offer to Bo Bichette
Craig Stammen

Named Padres New Manager
Michael Pittman Jr.

Returns to Thursday's Practice
James Cook

Back on the Field on Thursday
Nick Chubb

Back at Practice on Thursday
Brian Thomas Jr.

Not at Practice Again on Thursday
Chris Godwin

Misses Thursday's Practice
Bucky Irving

to Miss Another Week of Practice?
K'Andre Miller

Could Return to Action Thursday
Sean Monahan

Injured in Wednesday's Loss
Tyler Bertuzzi

Pots Third-Period Hat Trick Wednesday
Macklin Celebrini

Leads Sharks Past Kraken
Jakob Chychrun

Records Three Assists Wednesday
Alex Ovechkin

Scores 900th Career Goal
Jorge Polanco

Declines his 2026 Option to Become a Free Agent
Adam Gaudette

Available Against Kraken
Scott Laughton

Set for Season Debut Wednesday
Justin Brazeau

Ruled Out for Four Weeks
Tristan Jarry

Expcted to Miss Three Weeks
Conor Garland

Returns Against Blackhawks
Rasmus Sandin

Back for Capitals Wednesday
Denton Mateychuk

Out on Wednesday
Chris Sale

Braves Picking Up Chris Sale's 2026 Option
Michael Thorbjornsen

Poised to Continue Hot Play in Mexico
Davis Riley

Struggling to Find Form Ahead of World Wide Technology Championship
Taylor Montgomery

Leaning on Putter at World Wide Technology Championship
Stephan Jaeger

Offers Strong Value at World Wide Technology Championship
Ben Griffin

Looks to Stay Hot at El Cardonal
Nick Dunlap

Looking to Find His Game at El Cardonal
Wyndham Clark

Searching for Consistency at El Cardonal
Michael Brennan

Aims to Extend Fairytale Start at El Cardonal
Nathan MacKinnon

Extends Point Streak to Seven Games
Shane Bieber

Staying in Toronto for 2026
Salvador Perez

Agrees to Two-Year Extension With Royals
Trevor Story

Opts in for Remaining Two Years on his Contract
Yu Darvish

to Miss All of 2026 Following Flexor-Tendon Surgery
Shota Imanaga

Becomes a Free Agent
Luis Robert Jr.

White Sox Pick Up 2026 Option on Luis Robert Jr.
CFB

LJ Martin Expected to Play in Top-10 Matchup Against Texas Tech
PGA

LIV Golf Expanding To 72-Hole Format In 2026
Atlanta Braves

Braves Hire Walt Weiss as Their Next Manager
Kris Bubic

Cleared to Begin a Throwing Program
Brandon Woodruff

Declines Mutual Option for 2026
Freddy Peralta

Brewers Exercise 2026 Option on Freddy Peralta
Lucas Giolito

Declines his 2026 Player Option
J.J. Spaun

Finishes Sixth at Procore Championship
PGA

Matti Schmid Finishes Tied for 46th at Baycurrent Classic
Keith Mitchell

Finishes Tied for 10th at Baycurrent Classic
Si Woo Kim

Finishes Tied for 21st at Genesis Championship
Mackenzie Hughes

Misses The Cut at Sanderson Farms Championship
Max Greyserman

Finishes Second at Baycurrent Classic
Austin Eckroat

Finishes Tied for 56th at Baycurrent Classic
Luke Clanton

Finishes Tied for 56th at Bank of Utah Championship
Pete Alonso

Officially Opts Out of his Contract With Mets
Alex Bregman

Opts Out of his Contract With Boston
Edwin Díaz

Edwin Diaz on the Open Market This Winter
Cody Bellinger

Becomes Free Agent After Opting Out
Kyle Larson

Wins His Second NASCAR Cup Series Championship at Phoenix
Ryan Blaney

Concludes the 2025 Season with A Win at Phoenix
William Byron

Strong Championship Effort Ends With Late-Race Flat-Tire Crash
Denny Hamlin

Overtime Four-Tire Call Costs Denny Hamlin the Championship
Chase Briscoe

Championship Bid Never Really Started After Two Tire Failures
Brad Keselowski

Nearly Steals Phoenix Race
David Onama

Suffers First-Round TKO Loss
Steve Garcia

Scores First-Round TKO Win
Ante Delija

Suffers His First UFC Loss
CFB

Dylan Raiola Suffers Season-Ending Injury
Waldo Cortes-Acosta

Gets Knockout Win
Themba Gorimbo

Drops Decision At UFC Vegas 110
Jeremiah Wells

Gets Back In The Win Column
Yadier del Valle

Remains Undefeated
Isaac Dulgarian

Cut By UFC Following Submission Loss
Daniel Frunza

Still Winless In The UFC
Charles Radtke

Dominates Daniel Frunza
Allan Nascimento

Gets Submission Win
Cody Durden

Suffers Second-Round Submission Loss
Austin Cindric

is A Driver to Avoid for Phoenix DFS Lineups
Alex Bowman

Could Alex Bowman be A Sneaky Tournament Play for Phoenix?
Noah Gragson

Should DFS Players Roster Noah Gragson At Phoenix?
Erik Jones

Is Erik Jones Worth Rostering for DFS at Phoenix?
Michael McDowell

an Easy Recommendation for DFS at Phoenix
Chase Briscoe

Probably Won't Win the Title
Joey Logano

Could Play Spoiler in Championship Battle at Phoenix
Tyler Reddick

Seeking to End Winless Drought, but Probably Won't Have the Speed
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace Looks to Protect Top-10 Points Finish at Phoenix
Brad Keselowski

Hasn't Been Fast at Phoenix With RFK Racing
Daniel Suarez

With Nothing at Stake, Expect Little From Daniel Suarez
Kyle Busch

Qualifies Well, but Will Probably Finish Worse Than he Starts
Chris Buescher

Ryan Preece has a Shot to Overtake Chris Buescher as RFK Racing's Lead Driver
Austin Dillon

Looks to Avoid Finishing Last in NASCAR Playoffs
AJ Allmendinger

A.J. Allmendinger Might be a Worthy DFS Option

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP