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Frank's deep dive into starting pitcher fantasy baseball breakouts, waiver wire adds for Week 14 of 2026. Are these unlikely aces potential league winners?
It's time for the Week 14 edition of our Unlikely Aces article for the 2026 fantasy baseball season. This is a page where we look at pitchers who are performing above expectations, otherwise known as "Unlikely Aces." The goal here is to dive in to see if there are any tangible improvements worth noting.
This season, it's been extremely difficult for pitching, as there have been numerous injuries, most notably to Garrett Crochet and Cole Ragans, who have been out for a while. Ragans is likely out for the year. That's why it's even more essential for unlikely aces, as they're able to keep your starting rotation afloat while you manage injuries. The big question to consider here is, can they keep it up? Are there any reasons to doubt their recent performance?
This week, we're focusing on Cade Cavalli, Nathan Eovaldi, and Casey Mize. Each of these pitchers is widely rostered across Yahoo! leagues, but they're worth investigating further because they've been in a nice rhythm here. With that in mind, let's take a closer look.
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Cade Cavalli, Washington Nationals
27% Rostered
Cavalli has a 3.69 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP with a 25.7% strikeout rate and a 7.3% walk rate in 90.1 innings so far. It's been an inconsistent first half, but we've seen some flashes of brilliance from Cavalli, most recently against the Red Sox. This was a start where he tossed seven scoreless, one-hit innings with zero walks and 13 strikeouts. Cavalli has now racked up a combined 20 strikeouts in his last two outings, spanning 13 innings.
But before that, Cavalli lasted only 2.2 innings against the Rays, where he allowed two earned runs on six hits. The point is, he's been held back by a few blowup outings, which is why it's important to look at the overall picture here. What we see is a 27-year-old righty who has increased his strikeout rate by 7.4%. The underlying metrics look great as well, as highlighted by a 3.53 SIERA.
Cade Cavalli, K'ing the Side in the 2nd with Flames 🔥🔥🔥 pic.twitter.com/2Q49Fxxv8s
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) June 30, 2026
Cavalli boasts two pitches with a 30+% whiff rate, including a knuckle curve (40.6%) and a sweeper (30.1%). Pairing those two breaking balls with a fastball that sits at 96.6 MPH gives Cavalli an impressive arsenal to continue to get opposing hitters out. What's most intriguing is that the sweeper is a brand-new pitch, which gives him another weapon against righties.
Given what we've seen from Cavalli in his last two starts, coupled with the advanced metrics that support his surface stats, we could see him really take off in the second half. Obviously, it's going to be hard to trade for him after such a dominant outing vs. the Red Sox, but if he has another blowup, I'd look to make a move.
Verdict: Cavalli is an ascending talent who is starting to put everything all together.
Nathan Eovaldi, Texas Rangers
93% Rostered
You may be wondering why I'm including Eovaldi in this article. After all, he was phenomenal last season, putting up a 1.73 ERA and a 0.85 WHIP with a 26.0% strikeout rate and a 4.2% walk rate in 130 innings. The reason is simple: Eovaldi had gotten off to a poor start this season, but he's gotten into a nice rhythm of late, so it's time to dig in a little deeper.
In Eovaldi's last three starts, he's put up a 2.70 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP with a 31.2% strikeout rate and a 3.9% walk rate. The underlying metrics indicate that Eovaldi deserves even better than these numbers, as seen with his 2.50 SIERA.
The biggest key here is the elite command, as the 3.9% BB% is a massive improvement from what he was showing previously at 22.8% K% and 5.9% BB%. We've also seen Eovaldi fix his home run issue lately, going from a 1.68 HR/9 to a 0.90 HR/9.
The biggest takeaway that he can have from this recent hot streak is that Eovaldi is a pitcher with a strong track record who looks like he's rediscovered the form he had in his elite 2025 season.
It's worth noting that we do see a key difference in pitch usage. Eovaldi has trimmed his four-seamer usage from 22.5% to 12.5% this year. We've seen the veteran righty increasingly rely on his splitter, increasing its usage from 31.4% to 36.3%.
Simply put, this is a veteran who hasn't shown any signs of decline. If you were able to buy low on him before this hot streak, give yourself a pat on the back. You can continue riding the wave. Make sure not to sell high. The Rangers look like playoff contenders, while Eovaldi will get the benefit of playing in a pitcher-friendly environment.
Verdict: Eovaldi has injury concerns as a 36-year-old, but while he's on the field, expect him to continue to provide strong ratios.
Casey Mize, Detroit Tigers
56% Rostered
Mize is having a phenomenal season so far, putting up a 2.63 ERA and a 0.97 WHIP with a 26.9% strikeout rate and a 5.5% walk rate in 65 innings. The underlying metrics look fantastic, including a 3.41 SIERA.
We've seen Mize improve his strikeout rate by 4.7%. He's been able to induce whiffs at a much higher rate as well, bumping up his swinging-strike rate from 10.8% to 12.8%.
When looking at Mize's pitch mix, we see one key change: he's increased his slider usage from 16.3% to 24.6%. It's been an effective pitch for him, putting up a .283 xwOBA and a 30.7% whiff rate.
What's notable here is that last season, the slider wasn't nearly as effective, inducing only a 19.3% whiff rate. It's interesting to see that Mize is throwing it with less velocity, going from 88.2 MPH to 87.6 MPH.
Mize is coming off an absolutely dominant outing against the Yankees, where he tossed seven scoreless innings, allowing only one hit with zero walks and 10 strikeouts. I know that the Yankees are struggling right now and playing without Aaron Judge, but that's still extremely impressive, especially since it was on the road.
Last night's outing by Casey Mize was unlike any other in franchise history.
Across 126 years of Tigers baseball, he's the first pitcher to throw 7+ shutout innings with 10+ strikeouts, while allowing zero walks and no more than one hit. #DNMW pic.twitter.com/7WDTi3G7LX
— Tigers PR (@DetroitTigersPR) June 30, 2026
What we can take away from Mize's profile is that this clearly looks like a young pitcher who is finally putting everything together. He's still only 29 years old. Sometimes, it takes time for these pitchers to find a groove in the big leagues, especially when they've dealt with the number of serious injuries that Mize has.
Remember, Mize was once a first overall pick, considered one of the best pitching prospects in baseball. Considering what we've seen so far, I'd look to buy high.
Verdict: What we're witnessing is a talented pitcher who is finally breaking out. Try to trade for him and steal him from a league mate who doesn't value him properly.
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