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John breaks down his biggest overvalued and undervalued players in dynasty fantasy football ahead of the 2026 NFL season. Which players are sleepers at their ADPs and which might bust?
In dynasty fantasy football startup drafts, one of the most important things you can do is identify players who are overvalued or undervalued and position yourself to pick the undervalued players while avoiding those who are valued too high. You can also gain an advantage by trading for or away from either type of player.
There are many reasons a player might be valued too high or too low. Hindsight is 20/20, of course, but after the 2024 season, Jacksonville Jaguars wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr. had burst onto the scene as the most productive rookie wideout. He was drafted very early in startup drafts for 2025 dynasty fantasy football as a result.
Now, it seems that it's very unlikely he'll pay off where he was valued. It's not possible to predict the future, of course, but his issues with drops and his production being the result of major injuries to each of the team's other starting pass-catchers, boosting his production, were a warning signal. That's just one example to keep in mind, but let's dive in!
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Overvalued: Nico Collins, WR, Houston Texans
There won't be much here talking negatively about Collins as a player. He's a huge receiver with unnatural movement skills for his size who excelled greatly in his breakout 2023 campaign and early in 2024 before he suffered a hamstring injury. When he returned, he wasn't quite the same. And his 2025 campaign was disappointing.
He's valued highly because of his talent, but the situation he's in, the quarterback throwing the ball to him, the overall state of the Texans offense, and their lack of talent at offensive coordinator are likely to hold back Collins for some time, unfortunately. His injury history is also highly concerning.
CJ Stroud missed a near TD.
He had Nico Collins wide open, completely over threw him, is he nervous?
Seriously, what is happening? 🤦♂️ pic.twitter.com/A2WMCRXzTL
— SM Highlights (@SMHighlights1) January 13, 2026
Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud has come nowhere close to replicating his fantastic rookie season in his two subsequent years. Instead, he's been wildly inconsistent and has made endless highly inaccurate throws and bad turnovers. And it doesn't seem like much will change -- Houston's offensive line is partially to blame here.
The Texans traded away their elite left tackle after their line already had performed poorly in 2024, and the results in 2025 were predictable. They seem multiple seasons away from addressing the issue, and their elite defense keeps getting them into the playoffs, which doesn't help their draft position.
The offensive coaching also leaves much to be desired. Good offensive coaches like Klint Kubiak and Liam Coen do a great job.
IT’S A NICO COLLINS TOUCHDOWN 🔥
TBvsHOU on ESPN/ABC
Stream on @NFLPlus and ESPN+ pic.twitter.com/U6Y0P4qSic— NFL (@NFL) September 15, 2025
It's frustrating because Collins' talent is undeniable. He could be one of the NFL's most dominant receivers, but there is simply so much standing in his way. He can still be productive, but at where he's being drafted and traded, my analysis indicates that you can get better value for who you could draft around the same spot and the assets you could get in a trade.
The best players in dynasty fantasy football are often the best players who also happen to be on the best offenses in the NFL. Coaching, quarterback play, and the strengths of various position groups on the roster all play a factor. Collins has disadvantages in all these areas -- and he's been very injury-prone, too, having played in an average of just over 13 games per season.
Current KeepTradeCut Value:
- QB - Brock Purdy (Superflex)
- RB - Kenneth Walker III
- WR - Garrett Wilson, Emeka Egbuka
- TE - Tyler Warren
- Rookie Pick - 2026 Early First
Undervalued: Tucker Kraft, TE, Green Bay Packers
Kraft had a monster 2025 season that was unfortunately cut short by injury when he tore his ACL in Week 9 against the Carolina Panthers. Kraft had emerged as the clear best pass-catching TE in Green Bay, with a monster 33.3 PPR fantasy points thanks to seven catches for 143 yards and two touchdowns in Week 8, having been his finest performance.
Kraft will likely be significantly diminished to start the 2026 season, depending on when he returns to the field, and might not be 100 percent until 2027. This is a perfect buy window for the TE who could become the top overall dynasty fantasy football tight end, or at least clearly in the top three. He's the TE5 according to most rankings, and a projected fifth-round pick.
What a catch by Tucker Kraft for the TD!
📺: #HOUvsGB on CBS/Paramount+
📱: https://t.co/waVpO8ZBqG pic.twitter.com/5cpzRJLlEj— NFL (@NFL) October 20, 2024
Kraft is an absolute monster after the catch -- that's his best ability as a player. He's the best TE in the NFL at picking up extra yards after making snags, which helps boost his efficiency stats measurably. And the Packers lack a true WR1, instead employing an ugly rotation of their wideouts. TEs don't need quite as many targets to be elite for fantasy, though.
The after-catch ability helps soften the blow of a lack of targets for Kraft, though. He had just one game with 10 or more targets last season, yet still turned in five contests with double-digit PPR fantasy points.
Current KeepTradeCut Value:
- QB - Baker Mayfield (Superflex)
- RB - Travis Etienne Jr.
- WR - A.J. Brown/Zay Flowers
- TE - Sam LaPorta
- Rookie Pick - 2026 Mid First
Overvalued: CeeDee Lamb, WR, Dallas Cowboys
The arrival of WR George Pickens to the Cowboys put a major damper on Lamb's ability to produce elite numbers. He seems far overvalued in the top seven of all players in dynasty fantasy startup league rankings. Lamb had to fight through an ankle injury that likely slowed him down for the remainder of the season he played after the injury in 2025, though.
Still, Pickens looked the part of the WR1 in the games that he didn't have clear effort issues. Those tend to happen a few times a year. But Pickens will remain with Dallas in 2026, and Lamb's insane target volume in 2023 isn't likely to return. That propelled him to the WR1 overall in fantasy football leagues that season.
UNREAL 92-YARD TD 😱😱😱
📺: #DETvsDAL on ESPN/ABC
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/urKeZaIvCL pic.twitter.com/uVK0ixWWZo— NFL (@NFL) December 31, 2023
For years, Lamb operated as the clear, uncontested No. 1 receiver on a team that simply didn't have any other great options in the passing game. Tight end Jake Ferguson has played reasonably well at times, but the team's other receivers have all been WR3 and WR4 level or worse. That's not true anymore.
Lamb's targets per game dropped off substantially -- from over 10.6 per game in 2023 and 10.1 in 2024 to under 8.4 in 2025. That's a very big difference. Two fewer targets per game unequivocally leads to fewer fantasy points, as targets are absolutely massive for fantasy production, especially for receivers.
Pickens, meanwhile, averaged just over eight targets per game, but reached 1,429 receiving yards and scored nine touchdowns, while Lamb had just three TDs despite playing in three fewer games. Pickens is an elite downfield target and very effective in the red zone, while Lamb dropped multiple passes on what could have been huge plays. He had very unreliable hands.
Cowboys with a turnover on downs
DALvsPHI on NBC
Stream on @NFLPlus + Peacock pic.twitter.com/1Qjf2y9F1h— NFL (@NFL) September 5, 2025
Even for a player of Lamb's caliber, a slight reduction in targets for him and an increase in targets for the other elite receiver on the team is reasonable as a result of drops like this. Trading Lamb for an absolute haul in dynasty fantasy football is probably a good idea if you can get fair value for what he's going for.
Current KeepTradeCut Value:
- QB - Joe Burrow (Superflex)
- RB - Ashton Jeanty
- WR -Drake London
- TE - Trey McBride
- Rookie Pick - 2026 1.01 (Jeremiyah Love)
Undervalued: George Pickens, WR, Dallas Cowboys
The section above about Lamb breaks down a lot of reasons why Pickens is undervalued. It's not insane to say he's the WR1 of the Cowboys right now. Sure, Lamb might come back stronger next season, with fewer drop issues and a healthier ankle. But Pickens did nothing but dominate last year.
Aside from a few outbursts, he was fantastic and ended up being one of the most valuable picks at his ADP to make in fantasy football. But his ability to make acrobatic contested catches and his high-level route-running, as well as his lethality in the red zone, make it possible that he could lead Dallas once again in receiving yards and touchdowns, even if Lamb gets a slight edge in targets in 2026.
— Performances (@NotNflBurner) February 12, 2026
Quarterback Dak Prescott is tied to Dallas long-term, and head coach Brian Schottenheimer did a great job making the Cowboys offense one of the best in the league. Pickens is in a great situation to thrive, and you should consider the possibility that he'll be the most productive receiver on the team and one of the best in all of fantasy football in 2026.
He could be a top-10 player in dynasty startup drafts in 2027, and I wouldn't be surprised.
Current KeepTradeCut Value:
- QB - Trevor Lawrence (Superflex)
- RB - Jonathan Taylor/James Cook
- WR - Garrett Wilson/Emeka Egbuka
- TE - Colston Loveland
- Rookie Pick - 2026 Early First
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