Spencer's DraftKings PGA DFS lineup picks for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (2026). His PGA DFS targets and value plays for daily fantasy golf lineups, and golfers to avoid.
Welcome, everyone, to my DraftKings PGA DFS lineup picks and advice for the 2026 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. I'll be providing DFS picks and analysis to help you set those winning DraftKings lineups.
New starting this year -- if you want to see a deeper dive into my DraftKings analysis and thoughts for the week, you can click that link and find my beefed-up version, including more picks, data, analysis, and PGA DFS models.
Be sure to follow me on X @TeeOffSports to get more answers this week. Also, if you aren't doing so already, I'd love for you to consider signing up for my RotoBaller premium subscription. There are numerous tools available, including my dynamic "PGA Rankings Wizard Model."
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Fantasy PGA DraftKings Lineup Picks - AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
Below are some of my favorite picks for DraftKings. We also have tons of other great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools, and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.
PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - Spencer's Model (And More)
We have some exciting changes that we are implementing this year over at RotoBaller. There will be multiple subscription-based tiers for our readers to enjoy, including my very own TeeOffSports VIP Package that will include the following items:
PGA Rankings Wizard Model (Pre-Tournament)
- A powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows users to input data to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you are considering signing up, take a look at this how-to guide on everything you can find weekly inside my pre-tournament model. The sheet is loaded with sortable and weighable information to help you in all sectors of the market.
- The Pebble Beach
Vegas Report (All Pre-Tournament Bets)
- Top Pre-Tournament H2H Pick: (104-60-9) 63.41%
- All Pre-Tournament H2Hs: (353-277-34) 56.00%
- In-Tournament H2Hs (361-250-69) 59.08%
- Total H2Hs Since 2017: (714-527-103) 57.53%
- Outright Winners Since 2017: 55
- Units: +341.218 Units
- All Totals Are Entering 2026
- Click here to see an example
In-Tournament Model (Updated Stats + User Configuration Ability)
- Here, you will find updated stats for the particular tournament -- all sortable and weighable when you make a copy of your own under the file tab. The purpose of this is to provide an area where you can research the daily proceedings for DFS strategy or find outright or daily head-to-head wagers. There are over 25 weighable categories by the time Round 4 comes around, including the ability to add back in your pre-tournament research for every day.
In-Tournament Head-To-Head Bets For Rounds 1, 2, 3, and 4
- Lifetime Record:
- (361-250-69) 59.08%
- Click here to see an example
First-Round Leader/3-Ball Articles
- Twelve first-round leader wins over the last few years.
- Click here to see an example
One & Done (Deep Dive Into Potential Options To Consider)
- 10+ million in earnings during two of the past three seasons while providing information for contests. We will take a comprehensive look at a handful of options to consider.
- Click here to see an example
Late DraftKings Article (Condensed Player Pool) + Ownership Trends
- We will build off the Monday article throughout the week and consolidate selections toward a more concrete player pool for everyone to consider by Wednesday.
- Join the community! You will be able to talk to fellow subscribers and have real-time weekly chats with the team.
- $249.99 per year - Sign up today for all the tools I provide!
- You can also try things out for $14.99 per week or get the complete PGA Platinum package from everyone on the team for $299.99. I believe that deal is one of the best offers in the space and includes work from Joe Nicely, Patrick Gates, Ian McNeill, Todd McGill, Matt Miller, and me.
Let's Look at the Stats
| Stat | TPC Scottsdale | PGA Average |
| Driving Distance | 297 | 284 |
| Driving Accuracy | 53% | 62% |
| GIR Percentage | 66% | 65% |
| Scrambling Percentage | 59% | 55% |
| Average Three-Putts Per Round | 0.36 | 0.54 |
The Pebble Beach Pro-Am Field
- Field Size: 80
- Cut: No Cut
- Top 20 Entrants: 18
Last Five Winners of the Pebble Beach Pro-Am
| 2025 | Rory McIlroy | -21 |
| 2024 | Wyndham Clark | -17 |
| 2023 | Justin Rose | -18 |
| 2022 | Tom Hoge | -19 |
| 2021 | Daniel Berger | -18 |
Expected Cut Line
| 2025 | No Cut |
| 2024 | No Cut |
| 2023 | |
| 2022 | |
| 2021 |
Pebble Beach + Spyglass Hill
6,816 Yards - Par 72 - Greens: Poa
(Pebble/Spyglass split on Thursday & Friday -- Both weekend rounds at Pebble Beach
Course history will land in my Premium DraftKings article this week!
First Look Into Outright Bets
Check my Vegas Report and the Discord chat room.
Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium DFS PGA and Betting subscription?
Like what you read today? You can show your support for Spencer by using the promo code TEEOFF when purchasing a PGA Premium Pass. You get 10% off and full access to all of our Premium PGA articles, Spencer's data models, DFS tools, and Lineup Optimizer! You also get exclusive access to weekly betting picks from Spencer Aguiar, one of the top betting minds in the industry!
Final 2023 Golf Betting Results:
(Individual breakdowns of all sections in thread) @RotoBaller2023 (+16.634 Units)
2022 (+67.485 Units)
2021 (+68.846 Units)
2020 (+37.015 Units)
2019 (+27.743 Units)
2018 (+55.88 Units)
2017 (+54.26 Units)Overall: (+327.863 Units) pic.twitter.com/tuaDfwFXlo
— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) November 21, 2023
Favorite DFS Plays for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
Not so much with this Jake Knapp answer that you will get below, since he is one of the mutual agreements on the slate, but the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am provides a unique outlet we might not normally see for a no-cut tournament of 80 players when we dive into one core factor.
There is no way around it in today's modern market. Data Golf controls much of what we get across the space. That answer is forefront for both DFS and betting returns.
I am proud of the work we do at RotoBaller and of our industry-leading potential in matchups. Still, it doesn't mean we are going to win the head-to-head shift in market impact against a site like Data Golf (nor would I want to, because its influence allows some contrarian viewpoints on our end).
Data Golf is extremely sound when it comes to its values. My model rarely has a clear 180-degree difference in how a tournament will play out over the week, oftentimes agreeing with their overall math. We can find our deviations in a slate for DFS to try and avoid the public sentiment, but they are very good at what they do, and trying to oppose them for the sheer sake of being different will be a losing proposition long-term. Numbers typically work better for all when my math aligns with theirs.
That answer of similarities will barely come to fruition this week outside of Jake Knapp, though. A no-cut tournament will always be boom-or-bust in nature to begin with because there are only so many differing routes you can take to get unique (without going so rogue that it makes no sense), although this week presents the ultimate gamble for me: Either win a lot of money or none because of the differences I see in what is proper when it comes to roster construction.
My math really likes the ultra-negative part of the slate when looking at their numbers. Tommy Fleetwood, Russell Henley, Sepp Straka, Justin Rose, Jason Day, Shane Lowry, Viktor Hovland. All these names might experience less "playability" in the public's eyes than you might expect because of the impact of Data Golf's reach.
I also found myself in full-fade spots in a lot of what they have going at the top. I like Scottie Scheffler (as they do), but the lower-tiered options are not as in agreement, which continues this ability to swing for the fence and hope for the best.
There is a very negative return present and one that might end up with egg on my face, although I love the concept of being able to be unique in an 80-man field. It is rare to get that path in today's modern market.
Jake Knapp ($7,900)
I stated this earlier, but this is not going to be a unique take. Jake Knapp is the single-best value on the board for me at his $7,900 price tag.
The 31-year-old has started the year on fire, posting three consecutive top-11 finishes, including a ball-striking display in Phoenix that arguably could have won him the tournament had he gotten his typical sound putting returns.
My model ranked Knapp seventh overall in putting in this field, sixth on Poa greens over his last 24 rounds, and fifth in par-five scoring. If the returns of him being 10th in this tournament while approaching the green in similar conditions come to fruition, the sky is the limit for Knapp to not only compete but potentially win a title. I am going to continue riding this hot form until the wheels fall off.
Sepp Straka ($7,700), Harry Hall ($7,500)
One of the biggest indicators for success at this tournament has been "Putts Per GIR."
Wyndham Clark led the way in my model two years ago. Rory McIlroy, who isn't some prototypical fit here, landed top 10. The names have been consistent in their returns.
Here is the reconstructed board for me of the top 12 in a hybrid version of that category in 2026. Not all of these names grade out extremely well overall, but it does help to point in a direction.
Straka adds to that return by being the sixth-best SG:Total golfer in this field over the last year, and might be a value of sorts because of his recent negative form on tour. I love the idea of betting on his upside in a no-cut tournament. Hall, on the other hand, continues to be one of my favorite golfers in the world for the price point you normally pay in these elevated fields.
$7,500 (Or Less)
Matt McCarty ($6,800), Jacob Bridgeman ($6,900), Harry Hall ($7,500)
Those are the three best-rated golfers for me from $7,500 and less. You can dive into my model to get a better sense of what it likes or dislikes about all those names above.
More PGA Analysis and Picks
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