Dolphins vs. Bills Start 'Em, Sit 'Em Thursday Night - Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, De'Von Achane, Joshua Palmer, Khalil Shakir, Keon Coleman, Dalton Kincaid

September 18, 2025

Fantasy football start 'em, sit 'em lineups advice for Dolphins vs. Bills on Thursday Night Football in Week 3 (2025). NFL matchups analysis and TNF starts/sits.

This week's matchup between the Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins has a very high implied total. Will that matter? Over the years, we have seen a lot of different variations of Thursday Night Football. Some games are mind-numbing punt-fests while others are offensive explosions. But the one thing you never want to see, especially for fantasy football, is a game filled with injuries.

That's what happened last Thursday night when Jayden Daniels, Jayden Reed, and Austin Ekeler all suffered injuries. This week's matchup between the Bills and the Dolphins should have a lot of offensive fireworks, but more than anything, we just don't want a repeat of last Thursday.

I will bring you Thursday Night Football analysis all season, focusing on who to start, who is on the fence, and who should find the bench. Let's dive into this Week 3 Thursday night matchup for the 2025 season. You can also check out our main Week 3 start 'em, sit 'em matchups article for all other games. Good luck in your fantasy football week, RotoBallers!

Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills

Thursday, September 18th, 8:15 PM ET

Notable Injuries:

• Darren Waller (TE, MIA) - OUT - Hip
• Malik Washington (WR, MIA) - Questionable - Thumb
• Jaylen Waddle (WR, MIA) - Questionable - Shoulder

Dolphins vs. Bills Matchup Breakdown

At first glance, you might think you know exactly what is going to happen in this game. After all, this is a matchup in Buffalo that pits the NFL's fourth-ranked offense (according to Pro Football Focus metrics) against the league's 30th-ranked defense. And while that is certainly a mismatch and major disadvantage for Miami, we can't forget about the other side of the ball.

The Dolphins, even with their struggles in Week 1, are a top-half of the league team in receiving and receiving grades, while the Bills rank just 18th in pass coverage. That number is even jaded slightly because the team didn't have to do anything against Justin Fields last week, as he self-imploded with a 3-of-11 day.

Eyes toward TNF. #GoBills @LaBellaAssociat | Read more: https://t.co/wGexhUIkwq pic.twitter.com/GpSvImuWGw

— Buffalo Bills (@BuffaloBills) September 16, 2025

Do I think Miami wins this game? Absolutely not. But I think that with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle running routes, and now De'Von Achane playing more than 90% of his team's snaps (93% in Week 2), this is an offense that shouldn't get embarrassed. The biggest X factor, of course, is Tua Tagovailoa. If he commits bad turnovers like he did in Week 1, they will get blown out. If not, he could lead them to compete just like they did against New England on Sunday.

Must-Starts for Fantasy Football Lineups

De'Von Achane (RB, MIA)

Yes, De'Von Achane is evolving into a workhorse running back for the Dolphins. He played on 93% of snaps on Sunday after playing 73% in Week 1. This led to 19 touches, 122 total yards, and a touchdown against New England. Achane also led the Dolphins in targets last week with 10.

The Bills locked up Breece Hall in Week 2, but were tormented by Derrick Henry in the opening week. The reality is probably somewhere in the middle for this rush defense, but a game where the Dolphins are big underdogs plays into Achane's pass-catching ability.

Tyreek Hill (WR, MIA)

Glimpses of the old Tyreek Hill were back last week when he caught six balls on seven targets for 109 yards. The Bills have two cornerbacks and two linebackers on the injury list as we start the week, so they could be a depleted secondary against one of the league's top speed threats.

Jaylen Waddle (WR, MIA)

Like teammate Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle bounced back last week for five catches for 69 yards and a touchdown. He drew seven targets in this game, including the Dolphins' only red-zone target to wide receivers or tight ends.

Josh Allen (QB, BUF)

Josh Allen was a bust for fantasy managers in Week 2, and kicked a lot of people out of their Guillotine Leagues with 148 passing yards, 59 rushing yards, and no touchdowns against the Jets. But this is a woeful secondary and a bottom-10 defense against the run, so there should be no hesitation in starting Allen. Allen is RotoBaller's second-ranked quarterback for Week 3, per Nick Mariano.

James Cook (RB, BUF)

James Cook might have just had the best game of his career, rushing 21 times for 132 yards and two touchdowns. He did that all while playing less than 50% of the team's snaps, so it's not like he needs to be on the field for 80 plays to make a huge impact. The Dolphins have already given up big days to Jonathan Taylor and Rhamondre Stevenson this year, and Cook is likely to be the running back who explodes against them.

Possible Starts for Fantasy Football Lineups

Tua Tagovailoa (QB, MIA)

The first game against Indianapolis really looks bad on Tua Tagovailoa's ledger, but he has been throwing consistently (34 pass attempts per game) and ranks in the top 12 in both passing touchdowns and red-zone pass attempts through two weeks. This is a game where Tagovailoa is going to have to throw to keep the Dolphins in the game, and both Waddle and Hill showed last week that they can be capable WR1s for Miami and in fantasy football.

Keon Coleman (WR, BUF)

All Buffalo wide receivers have numbers that look completely skewed compared to Week 1 because the Bills were up so big against the Jets and never had to push the ball downfield. Most wide receivers, including Keon Coleman, played 55% of snaps or less in that game. But Coleman still caught three balls for 26 yards in essentially less than half a game. When both teams are scoring, Coleman is going to be a very valuable asset for Buffalo to have.

Sauce Gardner was on Keon Coleman 56% of his snaps in the 1st half. Despite that Coleman is the most utilized Bills receiver

— Michael F. Florio (@MichaelFFlorio) September 14, 2025

Dalton Kincaid (TE, BUF)

In a game where Josh Allen only threw 25 times, Dalton Kincaid led the team in targets with six. He has back-to-back weeks now with four receptions, and it appears he is going to settle into about four or five receptions per game, 50-70 yards, and a few touchdowns sprinkled in there. Perhaps most importantly, Kincaid has back-to-back weeks with a red-zone target from Allen.

Khalil Shakir (WR, BUF)

Khalil Shakir is a PPR play this week, perhaps in a flex spot. He hasn't shown this year that he can be a target compiler, like other slot receivers such as Ladd McConkey. Shakir's best value comes in high-scoring games when there is a need for Josh Allen to throw quick passes and not wait for downfield throws to develop.

Consider Sitting for Fantasy Football Lineups

Darren Waller (TE, MIA)

UPDATE: Darren Waller has been ruled out of this game.

Darren Waller is still getting into game shape coming out of retirement and hasn't played in the first two games of the season. There is no guarantee he will play in Week 3, either. Even if he did, the Dolphins did not target a tight end even once in Week 2, so that part of the game plan left when Jonnu Smith walked out the door to Pittsburgh.

Malik Washington (WR, MIA)

Mailk Washington is also banged up and playing well behind Achane, Hill, and Waddle in this Miami offense. Washington played more than 60% of the snaps on Sunday, but he has just four receptions for 32 yards in two games. And I don't think we can count on another miraculous punt return like in Week 2.

MALIK WASHINGTON TAKES THE PUNT ALL THE WAY! WHAT A RETURN.

NEvsMIA on CBS/Paramount+https://t.co/HkKw7uXVnt pic.twitter.com/EvVfpiL9Vc

— NFL (@NFL) September 14, 2025

Joshua Palmer and Elijah Moore (WRs, BUF)

Keon Coleman and Khalil Shakir are dominating what looks are going to wide receivers in the Bills offense. That has left only scraps (and lower snap numbers) for players like Joshua Palmer and Elijah Moore. Also hurting them is the fact that Buffalo is 27th in passing play percentage through two weeks of the season.

Kirksey’s Thursday Night Football Picks

Current Spread: BUF -12.5
Over/Under: 49.5

Wow, 12.5 points is a whole lot of points. The consensus when you see a line that large with a team coming to town that doesn't have a host of significant injuries is to take the points and profit. But we just saw the Bills easily cover this number against the  Jets in Week 2, so should we automatically go with Miami and the points?

I think we should. The Miami passing attack has the potential to move the chains, put points on the board, and keep this game within 10 points. It's a much better offense built to catch up in a game than the Justin Fields-led ground game the Bills saw last week. Just imagine the pain if the Bills are ahead by 17 points in the fourth and then the backup defenders give up a touchdown for the backdoor cover.

Yes, 12.5 is too high for me. The Buffalo defense might have held strong against the Jets, but it showed a lot of vulnerability against the Baltimore Ravens in Week 1. Miami and Tagovailoa are not Baltimore and Lamar Jackson, but the Tua-Hill-Waddle combo is enough in the positive ledger to keep Miami in this game.

The Pick: MIA +12.5, OVER 49.5

2025 Overall Record:
Spread (1-1), Over/Under (1-1)

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