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Dave's top NFL Draft prop bets for the 2025 NFL Draft. Read his best NFL prop bets and favorite NFL betting picks for the first round of the 2025 NFL Draft.
The 2025 NFL Draft is just about here. It's the biggest event of the NFL offseason as many future NFL stars get to hear their names called in front of millions of fans.
Believe it or not, many sportsbooks allow gamblers to make wagers on the draft itself. For handicappers, the NFL Draft provides another opportunity to make some dough. If you are following teams’ needs and correctly reading the tea leaves, you can get a strong sense of what teams might do when draft night begins. That means if you know what you’re doing, you can gain a nice advantage over the sportsbooks.
Make sure you’re following RotoBaller on X, and check out RotoBaller.com for all your NFL Draft and sports betting needs. Here are our best bets and value picks for the 2025 NFL Draft.
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Miami Dolphins Position of First Player Drafted - Offensive Lineman
(+135) BetMGM Sportsbook
Risk .33 Units to Win .45 Units
The Dolphins have to address their offensive line in this draft. Last year's starting left tackle, Terron Armstead, recently announced his retirement. This was bad news for a Miami offensive line that only ranked 21st in PFF's pass-blocking grade and 28th in PFF’s run-blocking grade in 2024. The Dolphins did sign free-agent guard James Daniels to a three-year, $24 million deal in an attempt to bolster the line, but more work is needed.
Miami’s offense was not quite as explosive in 2024 compared to previous years. Some of that was due to quarterback Tua Tagovailoa missing time with another concussion. But part of the issue was that the running game was so inefficient. Miami's normally exceptional running game suffered greatly because of its poor offensive line. A strong running game has been a critical element of Mike McDaniel’s offense. Bolstering the offensive line would go a long way toward increasing the efficiency of this offense.
Tagovailoa also continues to struggle with injuries. The Dolphins have to do everything they can to keep him upright. Sending a quarterback with Tagovailoa's injury history behind a porous offensive line seems like a good way to get fired. General manager Chris Grier and head coach Mike McDaniel know their jobs are on the line this season. The best way for this duo to remain employed is to make sure Tagovailoa stays on the field.
Despite their other needs, it would be malpractice for Miami to continue ignoring its offensive line. It stands to reason that the Dolphins will address the position in the NFL draft.
Ashton Jeanty to be Drafted by the Las Vegas Raiders
(+120) BetMGM Sportsbook
Risk .33 Units to Win .4 Units
The Raiders have been the most popular landing spot for Jeanty for several weeks now. However, there has been a lot of smoke about the Jacksonville Jaguars seriously considering taking Jeanty with the fifth overall pick. So much so that the Jaguars are now the betting favorites to land Jeanty. While Jacksonville appears firmly in the mix, taking Jeanty would be a highly questionable pick when you consider the depth of this running back class and all their other needs.
Jeanty to the Raiders still makes a lot of sense when you break it down. Head coach Pete Carroll loves to run the football, and a talented back like Jeanty seems like a dream pairing.
ASHTON JEANTY IS UNSTOPPABLE ⚡️@BroncoSportsFB scores a third TD before the half 😤 pic.twitter.com/2Xek565tR5
— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) December 7, 2024
Chip Kelly is now the Raiders' offensive coordinator and is known for building strong rushing attacks. Jeanty would be a good fit here.
The Jacksonville news has caused this line to move. Las Vegas was previously a -145 favorite to land Jeanty just last week. You can now get this bet at plus money odds. While the Jaguars could seriously be considering Jeanty at fifth overall, it's very important to remember that this is a time when there's a lot of hot air floating in the news. Don't forget, just two years ago, Will Levis was reportedly a lock to be the fourth overall pick, and he eventually fell to the second round.
I already bet this when Las Vegas was -130 favorites to draft Jeanty. I am buying the dip and going back to the well one last time. Jeanty and the Raiders just make too much sense.
Total Quarterbacks Drafted in Round 1 - Over 2.5
(-125) BetMGM Sportsbook
Risk .42 Units to Win .33 Units
We know Cam Ward is a lock for the Titans with the first pick. While Shedeur Sanders has become a polarizing prospect, he is still generating interest from the Giants, Steelers, and Saints. Sanders is not a lock to go inside the top 10 picks. Pittsburgh could take him at 21st overall, or another team could trade back into the first round to take him as well.
Jaxson Dart is also reportedly very high on several teams' draft boards. We could very easily hear this name called on night one. Jalen Milroe is one of the more intriguing players in the entire draft. He is a dual-threat quarterback with better-than-advertised pocket passing and has major upside as a rusher. Milroe offers NFL teams the highest ceiling at the quarterback position. We could see a team trade back in the first round to select him to lock up the all-important fifth-year option.
While it's also been reported that some teams don't have a first-round grade on any of the signal-callers this year, the NFL is still a quarterback-driven league. Teams will do what they must to secure their quarterback of the future.
In a draft where there is not much consensus across the board and few surefire first-round caliber players, we could see a flurry of moves from teams eager to find their quarterback of the future.
Washington Commanders Position of First Player Drafted - Running Back
(+1100) BetMGM Sportsbook
Risk .15 Units to Win 1.65 Units
This is one of my favorite longshot plays of the NFL Draft. The Commanders have gotten solid but not spectacular running back play from Brian Robinson Jr. the last three years. He has left a lot of meat on the bone and isn't a dynamic playmaker.
Head coach Dan Quinn has dropped some hints that the team could look to upgrade their running back room. He has mentioned how pass-catching running backs are a big key to their offense. However, Washington's backs were not very effective in this area last year. It does still have Austin Ekeler under contract, but he is an aging player who's struggled with injuries the last two years.
Ashton Jeanty and Omarion Hampton are considered first-round locks. In all likelihood, neither one will be available when Washington picks at 29th overall. Former Ohio State rusher TreVeyon Henderson is reportedly very high on some teams' draft boards. He has a three-down skill set, is one of the best pass-blockers in the draft, and is more than capable of making big plays in the passing game.
#OhioState RB TreVeyon Henderson motions out wide and shows off his tracking skills. TH vs. a LB in space is mismatch.
His big-play potential as a runner and receiver is going to be a great fit in an NFL offense. pic.twitter.com/ghuhMSYU5B
— Dane Brugler (@dpbrugler) November 11, 2024
Some insiders have noted there's a strong likelihood Henderson will go higher than many think. He could be in play for Washington at the backend of Round 1. His skill set would fit nicely with Jayden Daniels and offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury's system.
I originally got this line when it was +1500, but I still believe there is value at 10-1 or higher. Washington does have other needs, but don't be surprised if they take a running back with their first pick.
Total Running Backs Drafted in Round 1 - Over 2.5
(+200) BetMGM Sportsbook
Risk .16 Units to Win .33 Units
This is one of my favorite bets of the NFL Draft and ties in perfectly with our previous wager on the Washington Commanders. We are banking on Henderson being the third back taken in the first round. There's been enough smoke about him going earlier than expected that it's fair to believe it's a very realistic possibility.
Even if Henderson isn't our guy, we've got some other outs. This is not seen as a particularly strong draft, and teams reportedly only have true first-round grades on a handful of players.
With the running back class as strong as it is, there's a good possibility that a team picking toward the back of the first round will take a running back they have ranked highly on their board. Remember, Clyde Edwards-Helaire was once a first-round pick when the Kansas City Chiefs reached for him in the 2020 NFL Draft.
We could see something similar happen this year. At +200 odds or higher, this is a good bet. I'm looking to take advantage of it.
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