Overvalued Fantasy Football Tight Ends - Potential Busts for 2024 Drafts

August 22, 2024

Craig Rondinone takes a look at three fantasy football tight ends who are overvalued in 2024. He analyzes why these TEs could be fantasy busts this season.

When putting together your cheat sheets for your upcoming fantasy football drafts, remember that it is just as important to avoid the busts as it is to find the breakouts.

Some big-name tight ends out there have blessed fantasy footballers with plenty of points over the years. The problem is that some of these superstars might fall on hard times in 2024. It could be because of injuries, old age, or fewer targets and opportunities. Fantasy managers have to be aware of the tight ends with possible pitfalls so they can adjust the rankings on their draft lists.

Which tight ends are overvalued in fantasy football for 2024? Here is my list.

Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs

ADP: TE1, 21 overall

Kelce is the most dominant tight end in the history of fantasy football. The future Hall of Famer and popular podcaster had racked up seven straight 1,000-yard years until falling just short of the mark in 2023 with 984 yards. Even though his numbers slipped in all major departments, Kelce was still ranked second-to-fourth in most fantasy formats at the tight-end position, and he enters the 2024 campaign as the best or one of the best tight ends to grab in all fantasy formats.

It is amazing how well Kelce’s body has held up and how his stats have remained the same after all these grueling seasons. He has missed five games in a decade. He has had 100 targets or more in nine consecutive seasons. Kelce has been able to play on an above-average level despite countless commercials and being on the road with Taylor Swift. Don’t you just feel that Kelce’s run of being the top tight end in fantasy football is about to end, though?

The tires started to lose a little tread last year. Will they finally go flat this season? He seems overdue for an injury that costs him multiple games. His body has been hit more than most due to all the playoff games he has appeared in. I would not be shocked if fantasy managers only get 60 catches for 800 yards and four scores from Kelce. It is time for a young phenom like Detroit’s Sam LaPorta, Arizona’s Trey McBride, or Buffalo’s Dalton Kincaid to knock Kelce off his perch.

T.J. Hockenson, Minnesota Vikings

ADP: TE13, 113 overall

Hockenson has been one of the top tight ends in fantasy football the past couple of seasons with both the Detroit Lions and the Vikings, and he had the best year of his career in 2023 when he racked up 95 receptions for 960 yards and five touchdowns. When Hockenson is healthy, there is no question that he is one of the top-5 tight ends in fantasy football.

Hockenson has two major hurdles to hop over if he is going to have another great year in 2024, though. One is that he is returning from a torn ACL suffered in Week 16 last year. It is probably a long shot that he will be ready by Week 1 considering how late in the season the injury occurred. Even when Hockenson comes back, he will likely be slowly inserted into the tight-end rotation, especially since sturdy veteran Robert Tonyan was brought in to keep the spot warm for him in the offseason.

The other hurdle is Kirk Cousins is no longer throwing to him. Hockenson will receive passes from journeyman Sam Darnold or rookie J.J. McCarthy. It is unlikely either will be as consistent and accurate as Cousins was. This coupled with Hockenson’s recovery from his major knee injury, which could cost him a couple of games at the onset of the season, makes him risky to draft in the early rounds. Let someone else in your league hang their helmet on Hockenson to be their top tight end.

Cole Kmet, Chicago Bears

ADP: TE15, 135 overall

Kmet was one of the few bright spots in a spotty passing attack for the Bears in 2023. He set career highs with 73 receptions for 719 yards and scored a half-dozen touchdowns. Other than top target DJ Moore, Kmet has been Chicago’s second-best option for targets in recent seasons. Kudos to Kmet for being a fantasy force when he had to catch wobbly ducks from Justin Fields, Tyson Bagent, Trevor Siemian, and Nathan Peterman for the past two years. Now that No. 1 pick Caleb Williams is helming the offense, you would think Kmet’s fantasy value would skyrocket.

The problem with Chicago used to be the dearth of pass-catchers. Now, the problem for Kmet is there are so many great options that he might be lost in the target mix. The Bears re-signed WR1 Moore to a multimillion-dollar contract, then traded for longtime L.A. Chargers stalwart Keenan Allen, and THEN drafted Washington standout Rome Odunze in the first round in April. To even slice into Kmet’s target total more, the Bears signed veteran tight end Gerald Everett in the offseason, who is an old favorite of new offensive coordinator Shane Waldron. Oh, and did I mention that newly acquired running back D'Andre Swift has averaged 49 receptions per year during his career?

1. Bears TE Gerald Everett out-snapped Cole Kmet with the starters (14-11).

They both ran the same amount of routes (5)

Kmet was targeted twice, dropping both. New OC Shane Waldron comes from SEA who ran plenty of 12 personnel (2 TE's).

Already fighting for targets with DJ…

— Connor Allen (@ConnorAllenNFL) August 12, 2024

Kmet has gone from the No. 2 target in Chicago’s passing game to arguably the No. 4. Kudos to the Bears for making moves to improve their pass-catching corps, but their shrewd signings and deft draft choices have made Kmet’s fantasy value as questionable as my choices at the buffet when I am starving. Kmet might convert more targets into catches thanks to Williams’ passes, but he might not see 90 again since Moore needs 100-135, Allen needs the same, and Odunze, Everett, and Swift will need their fair share of looks, too.

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