RADIO
As we head into the NFL Divisional Round, we now have a stacked group of eight teams left that should make up a fantastic four-game slate this weekend. Some favorites won, but other underdogs surprised in their games over the first weekend, so how do we rank them before the first game kicks off on Saturday?
Teams like the Houston Texans and Green Bay Packers were not favored to win but dominated teams that were supposed to have strong defenses. It's just further proof that the landscape of the NFL can change on a dime after any given Sunday.
What do the NFL power rankings look like after the completion of the Super Wild Card Weekend? Here is our ranking of all eight NFL playoff teams.
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The Elite Eight
1. Baltimore Ravens (13-4 regular season)
The only thing that can be identified as a potential defect in the armor of the Baltimore Ravens at this point is rest. When Lamar Jackson takes the field on Saturday against the Houston Texans, it will be 21 days since he played an NFL game. Of course, Jackson threw five touchdowns in just 22 attempts in that last game, so he seemed to be on top of his game before the calendar turned to 2024.
This team is going to go only as far as Lamar Jackson takes them, and let's just say the playoffs have not been kind to him over the years. In his four career playoff starts (he was injured last year and did not play), Jackson has one game with a completion percentage over 58%. He has more zero-passing touchdown games (2) than games with two or more (1). He has thrown at least one interception in each game and has been sacked 19 times in four games.
Career playoff passing TDs
- CJ Stroud: 3
- Lamar Jackson: 3
— Michael F. Florio (@MichaelFFlorio) January 17, 2024
Add it all up and he is 1-3 in the playoffs. Do I think the Ravens are going to falter as nine-point home favorites? I do not. But if Lamar is rusty and not his elite self, the Texans do have a shot here.
2. San Francisco 49ers (12-5)
Brock Purdy was the topic of all the conversation this season, but their season can be defined by two other players who were missing in Weeks 6-8 When Deebo Samuel and Trent Williams sat those three weeks, the San Francisco 49ers went 0-3 and averaged 17 points per game. For the rest of their games, the 49ers were 12-2 (with one loss being in Week 18 with the JV squad) and scored 31.4 points per game.
They are 10-point favorites against Green Bay after the football gods robbed us of the 49ers-Cowboys rematch, but San Francisco should not overlook the Packers. They are going to likely go with the same combo aerial-ground attack that destroyed Dallas and punch San Francisco in the mouth early.
3. Buffalo Bills (11-6)
The game against Pittsburgh was closer in the fourth quarter than it should have been, but that's just because the Bills' defense is losing people at a Miami Dolphins-ian rate right now. But the Bills are big fans of the Dolphins right now because their late-season collapse allowed the Bills to play this Divisional Round game at home. Can the defense withstand a Patrick Mahomes attack this week? They certainly have before.
Josh Allen has a challenge for #billsmafia next week against the Chiefs
"we're going to need a fantastic atmosphere...the vibe, the energy, the juice we can use from that..."#bills #nfl pic.twitter.com/MK8cVIfK5G
— Jenna Cottrell (@JennaCottrell) January 16, 2024
The Bills already defeated Kansas City in Arrowhead Stadium this season (20-17 in Week 14 in the Kadarius Toney game) and held Patrick Mahomes to just one touchdown pass. In fact, while people remember the epic 42-36 January 2022 game where Mahomes beat the Bills, he historically has struggled against them. In his career, Mahomes is 1-3 against Buffalo in the regular season with just a 63% completion rate and a 7:5 touchdown-to-interception ratio plus seven sacks taken.
4. Detroit Lions (11-6)
All of a sudden, the Lions are almost touchdown favorites to make it to the NFC Championship Game despite not having won a playoff game in 33 years before last weekend. You may have seen any number of posts after the game that relayed the fact that Jared Goff was a perfect 22-for-22 with 277 yards and a touchdown when he was not pressured against the Rams on Sunday.
Jared Goff when not pressured last night:
22-of-22, 277 yards, 1 TD
That’s the most attempts without an incompletion in the playoffs since ESPN began tracking pressures in 2009. pic.twitter.com/DKAlDbU8Lp
— Field Yates (@FieldYates) January 15, 2024
Why does that matter? Tampa Bay ranks 19th in Pro Football Focus' pass rush grades, while the LA Rams ranked 11th. The Lions keeping a clean pocket this weekend will mean plenty of time for Goff to carve up Tampa Bay with Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta.
5. Kansas City Chiefs (11-6)
Sunday night will be a first in Patrick Mahomes' career. It will be his first true road playoff game ever. Every Mahomes playoff game has been at home or a neutral site for the Super Bowl. How will the road environment, being an underdog, and a hostile Buffalo crowd affect him? The answer might just be, not much.
Patrick Mahomes has been an underdog just 10 times in his NFL career.
Chiefs open +2.5 or +3 at Bills next week.
Mahomes is 8-1-1 ATS (7-3 SU) as an underdog, per @ESPNStatsInfo.
It will be Mahomes' FIRST road playoff game
— Ben Fawkes (@BFawkes22) January 16, 2024
This is sure to be the game of the weekend, and features perhaps the league's two best quarterbacks. However, it will also feature two defenses that are firing on all cylinders. According to The Spoken Podcast, the Chiefs have allowed the following points in their last six games in the second half: 6, 7, 3, 0, 6, 0. The Bills, on the other hand, have generated the most takeaways on defense this season (29), and were seventh in passing touchdowns allowed.
Everyone wants to see another Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes old-fashioned shootout, but this game (and these teams) are more likely to be defined by what the defense does and who can come up with the big stops and turnovers.
6. Houston Texans (10-7)
The Texans' defense has looked elite lately, but it has certainly been an odd season for the young and inexperienced squad. Specifically thinking about the matchup against Lamar Jackson, it's hard to figure out who this defense really is. They allowed the eighth-most passing yards to quarterbacks, but the fewest passing touchdowns (17). They allowed the 12-fewest rushing yards to quarterbacks, but the most rushing touchdowns (7).
No other team sacked Lamar Jackson more than the Texans did in their game against him in Week 1 (four times), and they also caused him to fumble twice. This defense is much improved over their early-season performance (they allowed zero passing touchdowns in three of their last four regular season games) and they just forced the Browns into two turnovers and just 56 rushing yards in Wild Card Weekend.
I have zero questions about the offense's ability to put up points on anyone right now, and with the way the defense is playing, I am grabbing the points at HOU (+9) wherever I can.
7. Green Bay Packers (9-8)
How badly did the Packers stomp on the throat of the Dallas Cowboys? San Francisco coach Kyle Shanahan tells us when his team started game-planning for Green Bay.
“Halfway through the second quarter.”
Kyle Shanahan and the 49ers started preparing for Green Bay early on in Cowboys-Packers 🤣pic.twitter.com/bsWB16Pp7w
— Action Network (@ActionNetworkHQ) January 17, 2024
Jordan Love has been absolutely masterful since about the middle of the season. In his last nine games, Jordan Love has thrown 21 touchdowns and just one interception, accounting for more than 2,400 yards. In his last two games (both essentially elimination games), Love has completed almost 80% of his passes for five touchdowns and no picks. He also has only been sacked once in those games.
San Francisco will win this weekend, but Jordan Love is going to make it interesting.
8. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-8)
After Monday night's Buccaneers-Eagles game, do we think that Tampa Bay is really that good, or that Philadelphia is really that bad? I assume it's a combination of both, but going into Detroit is going to be a much tougher task for Baker Mayfield and his squad.
However, the Eagles were somewhat flummoxed by the defensive schemes from Tampa Bay on Monday that didn't allow them to run the ball at all.
Both DeVonta Smith and Jason Kelce have now said that the Buccaneers played fronts that made it impossible to run against.
That’s why the #Eagles didn’t run the ball
— Eliot Shorr-Parks (@EliotShorrParks) January 17, 2024
If Tampa Bay can contain David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs this week as they did with Jalen Hurts and D'Andre Swift, the pressure might be on Jared Goff and his offensive line to deliver the win through the air. The Rams had a 10% sack rate on Goff last Sunday night and the Buccaneers will need to do something similar to have a shot against this Lions team with momentum and the home crowd on their side.
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