RADIO
The 2023 fantasy football season is over, but that doesn't mean we are done analyzing the game. The 2024 draft season will be here before we know it.
One of the biggest questions that fantasy managers need to have answered is more confusing than in recent years. Who should be the number one overall pick on draft day?
There are arguably several candidates worth considering, but we'll narrow it down to four for now. Here are my top choices and reasoning as to why they should or should not be the number one overall pick.
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Should Christian McCaffrey Be the #1 Pick?
San Francisco 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey has been on a dominant run these last few years, finishing as RB2 in 2022 and RB1 in 2023. In PPR formats, CMC had over 100 more points than the next closest running back, averaging almost 21 points per game in 16 games played. The star running back missed just one game in the last two seasons, which occurred in Week 18 when he took a rest. McCaffrey concluded the 2023 season with 2023 scrimmage yards and 21 total touchdowns, leading the league in both departments.
With Kyle Shanahan's system being a perfect fit for the dynamic running back, McCaffrey has easily been the best fantasy player over the last two seasons. After three great years to start his career, McCaffrey played just 10 games in 2020 and 2021. He led the NFL in touches this season, but it remains uncertain if he'll be able to get through another season without missing a game. CMC had 12 games with at least 12 PPR points and two games with 40 points, scoring a touchdown in all but three games. The 49ers' star back has a strong case to be the 1.01 again, as long as he can avoid injury.
Should CeeDee Lamb Be the #1 Pick?
Dallas Cowboys wide receiver CeeDee Lamb finished as the WR1 this season, averaging nearly 24 PPR points per game and reaching 30 or more points in five games. The 24-year-old set career highs in receptions (135), yards (1749), and touchdowns (14). Lamb led the league in receptions this season and was targeted at least nine times in all 11 games after the bye, with six games of 13 or more targets. His standout performance came in Week 17 against the Lions during the fantasy championship, where he caught 13 of a season-high 17 targets for a career-high 227 yards, including a 92-yard touchdown.
Benefiting from an All-Pro season by Dak Prescott, the Cowboys' air attack was one of the best throughout the year. Lamb demonstrated his ability to thrive as the go-to option even when opponents focused on shutting him down. He has scored at least 300 PPR points and finished as a top-five receiver in each of the last two seasons without Amari Cooper. Lamb has played all 17 games in both seasons and has missed just one game over his four-year career. While much of his success relies on the health and performance of Prescott, Lamb appears poised for another dominant season in 2024.
Should Tyreek Hill Be the #1 Pick?
Miami Dolphins wide receiver Tyreek Hill had a dominant 2023 season, finishing as the WR2 in all formats and averaging over 20 PPR points per game. This marked the fourth time in his career that he finished in the top two in all formats, including each of his first two seasons with the Dolphins. The 29-year-old was in the race for 2,000 yards before an injury forced him out of a game, ultimately ending with a league and career-best 1,799 receiving yards and a league-best 13 receiving touchdowns. The cheetah had eight games with at least 100 receiving yards, setting the tone for 2023 in Week 1 when he caught 11 passes for 215 yards and two touchdowns, earning nearly 45 PPR points.
Under Mike McDaniel's prolific offense, multiple players have been able to thrive in recent years. Built on speed, the Dolphins' pass game often revolves around Hill. Despite the presence of other talented playmakers like Jaylen Waddle, Raheem Mostert, and De'Von Achane, Hill consistently appears to be the focal point of the Dolphins' offensive strategy. With another year of experience with Tua Tagovailoa and McDaniel, Hill seems poised for another extraordinary season in 2024.
Should Justin Jefferson Be the #1 Pick?
Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson played a career-low 10 games in 2023, despite being the unanimous 1.01 in fantasy drafts ahead of the season. In reality, the 24-year-old participated in just eight full games this year and still managed to finish with over 1,000 receiving yards. Jefferson faced multiple injuries, and with Kirk Cousins missing most of the season due to a torn Achilles, the Vikings had to rely on a combination of Joshua Dobbs, Nick Mullens, and Jaren Hall at quarterback. Remarkably, Jefferson still averaged over 20 PPR points per game this season.
The star receiver had a dominant 2022 season, finishing as the WR1 in all formats after posting top-five finishes in each of his first two years. Jefferson had not missed a game in the first three years of his career, and managers were excited following his strong start to 2023, where he scored at least 24 PPR points in the first four games before getting injured. In Week 18, Jefferson reminded everyone of his talent, catching 12 passes for 192 yards and a touchdown with Mullens at quarterback. Jefferson stands out as one of the most elite talents in the NFL, and he would be a tremendous pick for a bounce-back season, especially with the return of Cousins or improved quarterback play in general.
Honorable Mentions
Ja'Marr Chase had a solid season in 2023 despite Joe Burrow dealing with injuries and playing the majority of the season with Jake Browning. Chase has consistently been the WR12 or better in each of his first three seasons, and with the potential departure of Tee Higgins seeking a new contract, there's a chance for Chase to see an insane target share, putting him in contention for the 2023 1.01.
Breece Hall emerged as the next closest running back to McCaffrey this season, delivering crucial performances with 70 PPR points in Weeks 16 and 17. The 22-year-old, recovering from ACL surgery, became the true workhorse towards the end of the season, with the expectation that players tend to dominate more in their second year back from surgery. The Jets' offense is anticipated to improve in 2024, and with Aaron Rodgers healthy, Hall looks poised to rival any running back.
Kyren Williams made a significant impact in 2023, averaging over 20 PPR points per game, trailing only McCaffrey in that regard. The Rams found the most success on the ground they've ever had in the Matthew Stafford era, and the 23-year-old totaled 100 or more yards in each of the last six games, scoring a touchdown in all but one. While potential changes to a more air-raid offense with Stafford and Cooper Kupp fully healthy could occur, Williams is expected to thrive if featured again in 2024.
The #1 Pick Is...
The unquestioned first-overall pick in 2023 was Jefferson, and the clear pick this year should be Christian McCaffrey. McCaffrey's immense value stems from his substantial role compared to other running backs in the NFL, and his versatility allows the 49ers to feature him as the centerpiece of their offense. While concerns about CMC's past injuries linger, it's worth noting that every player is susceptible to getting hurt, and McCaffrey has proven to be as durable as anyone over the last few years.
Assuming he can stay healthy, McCaffrey is poised for yet another dominant season, with fantasy managers likely finding themselves in contention for a championship.
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