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Welcome to the "Chicago Wins No Matter What Bowl" for Week 10 of NFL Thursday Night Football! The two teams, who pulled off a blockbuster trade that essentially became DJ Moore and a bunch of picks for Bryce Young will face each other on Thursday night with both seasons headed down the toilet.
However, the Bears have a young, emerging quarterback, a stud wide receiver in D.J. Moore, and a bevy of early-round picks in years to come. Meanwhile, Carolina currently sits with the second-worst record in the league and has to turn over its first-round pick to Chicago instead of the right to draft a player like Marvin Harrison Jr.
This certainly qualifies under the umbrella of an underwhelming Thursday Night Football game, but there still might be plenty of fantasy options to consider. I will be bringing you Thursday Night Football analysis all year long, focusing on who to definitely start, who is on the fence, and who should find the bench. Let's dive into this tenth Thursday Night matchup of the 2023 season.
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Carolina Panthers @ Chicago Bears - 8:15 pm ET
Be sure to also check our our Panthers vs. Bears NFL Actives / Inactives Report for Thursday Night Football. Notable Injuries:
- Justin Fields (QB, Chicago Bears) - Thumb - OUT
- Cole Kmet (TE, Chicago Bears) - Knee - EXPECTED TO PLAY
- D.J. Chark (WR, Carolina Panthers) - Elbow - DOUBTFUL
- Laviska Shenault Jr. (WR, Carolina Panthers) - Ankle - OUT
Bears’ rookie quarterback Tyson Bagent will start his fourth straight game in place of Justin Fields, who is recovering from a dislocated thumb on his throwing hand.
More via @CourtneyRCronin:https://t.co/plH2TpfJ52
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) November 9, 2023
Panthers vs. Bears Matchup Breakdown
At first glance, this game looks like it could be a scoring bonanza as both Carolina and Chicago are in the bottom three in touchdowns allowed per game this season. Carolina is last at 3.5 per game and Chicago is 30th at 3.1. But a deeper dive tells us that the two defenses on these squads are headed in opposite directions recently.
On the surface level, Carolina's touchdowns per game have gone up in the last three weeks to 3.7 per contest while Chicago is down to 2.3. Also in their last three, Carolina allows opponents to score 89% of the time they reach the red zone, but Chicago has dropped down to 66%. Chicago has pinned their defensive hopes on the rush defense, and they now rank first in the NFL with just 3.3 yards allowed per attempt, a number that looks high compared to the 2.7 they've allowed in their last three games.
Chicago is also stingy against the pass at home, allowing just 205 passing yards per game at Soldier Field, including just six yards per pass attempt allowed. With Bryce Young struggling and Tyson Bagent still a work in progress, this is unlikely to be a high-scoring affair, but Chicago with the superior defense and the home crowd has the advantage.
Must-Starts for Fantasy Football Lineups
DJ Moore (WR, CHI)
Moore's five targets in Week 9 were his lowest since Week 1, but he still ranks top-20 among all wide receivers in target share (24%) and air yards share (38%). As was expected, he has become the primary weapon in this offense and both Justin Fields and Tyson Bagent have relied on him heavily in weeks past. Sprinkle in a little revenge game narrative against the Panthers, and Moore easily falls within the WR2 range this week considering the teams we have on bye.
PFF Receiving grades over the past month:
92.5 — Tyreek Hill
91.7 — A.J. Brown
91.0 — Ja’Marr Chase
90.0 — Adam Thielen
88.9 — DJ Moore
88.7 — CeeDee Lamb
86.0 — Jake Bobo
83.3 — Drake London
80.1 — George Pickens
80.0 — Brandon Aiyuk
79.6 — DeAndre Hopkins
79.6 — Garrett Wilson…— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) November 1, 2023
Adam Thielen (WR, CAR)
Speaking of target monsters, Adam Thielen - even with a meager six last week - has at least 11 targets in four of his last six games and is now top-15 in the NFL with a 26% target share on the year. How much is he hogging targets on his own team? His 76 this year are exactly double the number of the next-closest pass-catcher on the Panthers. His 62 receptions are more than three times that of Jonathan Mingo, who is next on the squad with 20.
Cole Kmet (TE, CHI)
Cole Kmet's 18 targets are good enough to rank ninth among all tight ends over the last three weeks, but it looks even better when you consider Kmet had exactly zero targets in their Week 7 game. Kmet, thanks to 55 yards and two touchdowns, had his second week of the 2023 season with an overall TE1 finish, and that follows another top-10 week in half-PPR scoring from Week 8. He has been Bagent's safety valve with 10 targets and eight targets in the last two games, and that should remain here in Week 10.
Solid Starts for Fantasy Football Lineups
Darnell Mooney (WR, CHI)
After six straight weeks where he finished between WR47 and WR133 in half-PPR formats, Darnell Mooney burst back onto the scene last week with five receptions for 82 yards and a WR19 finish in half-PPR formats. This doesn't mean Mooney is back to being in WR2 consideration every week, but Carolina allows a 66% completion rate per game this year and Mooney may be getting more involved as Bagent gets comfortable.
Chuba Hubbard (RB, CAR)
When the Bears are at home, they are the third-best rush defense in the league by opponents' rushing yards per game. They allow just 68.5 rushing yards per game in Chicago this season and just 3.3 yards per rush attempt to lead the league. Where Hubbard will need to get involved is in the passing game. The Bears allow the most receiving yards, the most receiving touchdowns, and the third-most receptions to the position this season. Hubbard ranks 10th among all running backs with 146 routes run this season, so his fantasy production will have to come on rushing volume and targets from Bryce Young.
RB Target Share Leaders in Week 9:
Austin Ekeler 25%
Jerome Ford 25%
Aaron Jones 24%
Jonathan Taylor 21%
Tyjae Spears 16%
Chuba Hubbard 16% 👀
Alvin Kamara 16%
Tony Jones 15%— Scott Spratt (@Scott_Spratt) November 8, 2023
Khalil Herbert or D'Onta Foreman (RBs, CHI)
Khalil Herbert (ankle), who has been on IR for four weeks, practiced in full this week, but is still technically listed on IR as of Wednesday night. He would need to be activated in order to play on Thursday night and that would make a messy running back room even worse. Last week, D'Onta Foreman saw almost 60% of the snaps, but that was after four backs got between 21% and 36% of snaps for the Bears. If the Bears commit to Foreman as the lead back and Herbert stays on IR, Foreman would be a decent play, but Darrynton Evans and Roschon Johnson still loom as well.
Consider Sitting for Fantasy Football Lineups
Tyson Bagent (QB, CHI)
Bagent is a day three rookie quarterback who has three touchdowns and six interceptions in his four games filling in for Justin Fields. Considering Carolina is a bottom-eight rush defense by opponents' yards per rush attempt, I expect Bagent to give a healthy dose of targets to Moore and then the Bears will pound the ground game to eke out a win. Bagent is a borderline play even in Superflex leagues.
Bryce Young (QB, CAR)
In his seven starts this season, Bryce Young has one game where he finished above QB17 for the week. On a short week on the road against Chicago, I'm not starting Young in a standard league unless I'm absolutely desperate. Young has three touchdowns and three interceptions in his last three games, plus he has taken 14 sacks.
The Panthers could’ve had CJ Stroud but instead they draft Bryce Young lmaoo 😭 what a blunder pic.twitter.com/WMW4uDpNvp
— AK (@AKris__) November 5, 2023
Jonathan Mingo (WR, CAR)
Mingo was a preseason trendy sleeper as many thought he might be the short-yardage specialist that rookie Bryce Young would rely on when pressured. Mingo is getting the short targets (his 10.7 average target distance ranks 53rd among wide receivers), but the problem is he's getting almost no work. He is 58th in targets and 62nd in target share, losing just about all the usage to Adam Thielen. He is good for a decent PPR game every now and then, but not a reliable fantasy asset.
Miles Sanders (RB, CAR)
Miles Sanders now has back-to-back weeks under a 25% snap share for the team that spent $25 million in the offseason for his services. He hasn't crossed the 40 rushing yards threshold since Week 2 and has seen one red zone opportunity in the last five games. As sad as it is to admit, he belongs firmly at the end of fantasy benches now.
Hayden Hurst (TE, CAR)
Hayden Hurst chipped in 54 receiving yards on Sunday which gave him a TE20 rank on the week. The problem is those 54 receiving yards were more than his last five games combined. His ceiling right now with a low-impact Bryce Young seems to be about TE15 every week.
Kirksey’s Thursday Night Football Picks
Current Spread: CHI -3.5, Total: 38.5
Bryce Young simply has not been able to string together any sustainable successful drives this season, and it's been especially bad on the road. He has just a 58% completion rate with 203 yards per game and a 5:4 touchdown to interception ratio away from Carolina this year. The Bears' defense is stout against the run which means Carolina will likely have to resort to Young drop-backs 25-30 times in this game. That does not bode well for Carolina or the fantasy prospects of their players.
Knowing that a win against Carolina actually gets the Bears closer to the number one overall pick, this is a game where Chicago should control the line of scrimmage, target DJ Moore heavily against his old team, and play conservatively with Tyson Bagent. The Bears cover in a low-scoring affair.
Picks: CHI -3.5, UNDER 38.5
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