Bears vs. Commanders TNF Start 'Em, Sit 'Em - Justin Fields, D.J. Moore, Khalil Herbert, Cole Kmet, Sam Howell, Brian Robinson, more

October 3, 2023

Fantasy football start 'em, sit 'em, and lineup advice for the Chicago Bears and the Washington Commanders on Thursday Night Football in Week 5 (2023). Detailed player breakdowns and TNF matchup analysis.

For those who love to hate-watch Thursday Night Football, this matchup with the Chicago Bears visiting the Washington Commanders was picked especially for you! Start with two lackluster teams, and add in a lack of true attractive fantasy options, and you have a recipe for uninterested fans. This is the NFL betting degenerate game of the week because unless you really care about the maturation of Justin Fields or wonder who could possibly replace Chase Claypool's two targets per game, there is not a lot of immediate appeal.

However, the Commanders were ultra-competitive against the Eagles in Week 4 and Justin Fields had the best passing day of his career against the Denver Broncos (I mean, who doesn't?). So perhaps there will be some intrigue here between two teams headed in opposite directions.

Both teams are coming off competitive games--although two losses--and are looking to build more momentum in Week 5. This should hopefully be a competitive game for the NFC foes, but a lot of that depends on Chicago. I will be bringing you Thursday Night Football analysis all year long, focusing on who to definitely start, who is on the fence, and who should find the bench. Let's dive into this fourth Thursday Night matchup of the 2023 season.

Chicago Bears @ Washington Commanders - 8:15 pm ET

Notable Injuries:

• Chase Claypool (WR. CHI) - Team Decision - OUT
• Chris Rodriguez Jr. (RB, WSH) - Illness - Questionable

The Bears-Commanders Matchup

The matchup between these two teams on Thursday night could not be more different in terms of style of play and strength among the various units. Chicago ranks top ten in seconds per offensive play while Washington is in the bottom 10. Washington passes the ball at the fourth-highest rate in the league (64%), while the Bears are stuck down at 17th (58%).

Both teams are in the top 10 in yards per rush attempt this year, but Chicago has ironically been scoring through the air (1.8 passing touchdowns per game) while Washington prefers to get in via the ground game (1.0 passing touchdowns per game, bottom 10 in the NFL).

The difference in these teams is most clear on the defensive side of the ball. Washington is a top-seven team in the league, only allowing teams to score from the Red Zone 1.3 times per game. Chicago, meanwhile, is 29th in that category, allowing 3.0 scores per game. I do not think this will be another game where Justin Fields can just throw all over the place like he did against the Junior Varsity Denver Broncos defense. If the Bears can try and have success with a balanced rushing attack, that will be the way they stay competitive in this one.

Must-Starts for Fantasy Football Lineups

Justin Fields (QB, CHI)

Justin Fields had the game of his life on Sunday, but it strangely had nothing to do with his rushing ability. His 25 rushing yards on Sunday were his fifth-lowest in a game where he threw at least 20 pass attempts. He finished the game with 28 completions, 335 passing yards, and four passing touchdowns. That is largely a product of the Denver defense being historically bad, and his passing numbers should regress some this week.

Washington only allows 230 passing yards per game this season and that includes the 311 that Jalen Hurts threw in Week 4. However, they have allowed the third-most rushing yards to quarterbacks this year (131). Considering the rate at which they bring pressure, I expect a lot of Fields scrambles in this game, which should give him a nice rushing floor. He won't be a top-five quarterback again this week (most likely), but the floor is higher than you might think if he can avoid sacks.

Terry McLaurin (WR, WSH)

McLaurin saw a season-high 25.6% target share last week and looked like Sam Howell's preferred weapon on the field. He also saw 33% of the air yards and was top-12 in total air yards on the week. McLaurin's catches, targets, and yards have gone up essentially every week and it appears Howell is back to favoring Scary Terry during Spooky Season.

With the Bears allowing the second-most yards per pass attempt this season (8.4 yards, just behind the Broncos), this is a matchup I am going to exploit wherever possible Thursday night.

Solid Starts for Fantasy Football Lineups

Khalil Herbert (RB, CHI)

Khalil Herbert's usage exploded in the Week 4 game where there was a neutral game script all day, which is a good sign he will be the workhorse when the Bears are competitive this year. Herbert had 103 rushing yards and 19 receiving yards plus a receiving score against Denver (again, who doesn't?). Washington allows 4.5 rushing yards per attempt to opponents.

D.J. Moore (WR, CHI)

Last week might have been the perfect sell high window for D.J. Moore in fantasy, but if you held onto him, you likely have to trot him out there one more week to see if the new Fields-Moore connection is real. Moore is getting deep shots and high-value targets, and if he can convert like he did on Sunday, this could be the start of something special.

Deep target (20+ air yards) leaders:

11 — Chris Olave
10 — Justin Jefferson, A.J. Brown
9 — Tyreek Hill, Amari Cooper, DJ Moore

The percentage of those deep targets that were catchable, per @FantasyPtsData:

78% — DJM
67% — Hill
60% — JJ
55% — Olave
50% — AJB
33% — Cooper

— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) October 4, 2023

Jahan Dotson (WR, WSH)

Even though Terry McLaurin out-targeted Dotson 10-9 in their last game, Dotson still was a major part of the offensive game plan and had four red zone targets compared to zero for McLaurin. At worst, Dotson is a WR3/Flex play considering the Bears have allowed five receiving touchdowns to wide receivers through four games.

Brian Robinson Jr. (RB, WSH)

Brian Robinson is now more than doubling up Antonio Gibson on touches every week, so this is clearly his backfield now. But the best and most encouraging part of Robinson's game on Sunday is that he had five opportunities in the red zone compared to just two for Gibson. That kind of usage could make him a fantasy star the rest of the way.

Sam Howell (QB, WSH)

So far the Bears have allowed the following QB finishes in their first four games: QB3, QB18 (Baker Mayfield), QB5, and QB9. You might have better options on your roster than Sam Howell, but I doubt they all have better matchups.

Consider Sitting for Fantasy Football Lineups

Cole Kmet (TE, CHI)

Here are Cole Kmet's game logs in catches-yards-touchdowns format for his four games: 5-44-0, 4-38-0, 2-22-0, 7-85-2. Care to guess which game was against the Denver Broncos? The Washington Commanders allow a league-low 2.1 fantasy points to the tight end position over the first month of the season.

Roschon Johnson (RB, CHI)

The snap share swerved sharply out of favor for Roschon Johnson last week as he logged a season-low 22%. That led to just six total touches for Johnson and 15 total yards. Against a Commanders' front seven that allows the 12th-fewest rushing yards to running backs this season, this game doesn't look explosive enough to accommodate two Bears' running backs. Herbert is risky enough, so I won't be rolling with Johnson in this one.

Curtis Samuel (WR, WSH)

Curtis Samuel had his best game of the season on Sunday, catching seven passes for 51 yards and adding a rushing score. But in a game where the Washington running backs should be able to move at will and with Jahan Dotson back healthy again, I can't see another big game for Samuel. He was a beneficiary of a 65-point game on Sunday, but I can't see this one crossing 45.

Logan Thomas and John Bates (TEs, WSH)

Both Logan Thomas and John Bates are logging healthy snap shares, but the targets aren't following. They combined for four targets and zero red zone opportunities in the shoot-out against the Eagles in Week 4.

Kirksey’s Picks

Current Spread: WSH -5.5, Current Total: 44.5

In the end, I think the pass rush for Washington combined with Fields' tendency to be inaccurate over long periods of time prevents Chicago from putting up a lot of points. Prior to scoring 28 against Denver, Chicago averaged just over 15 points per game. It's not as though Washington is an offensive juggernaut, but they can easily win this game 21-13 which would allow them to cover the spread and keep the under intact.

Hitting over on 44.5 for this game, to me, implies that you think the Washington passing offense will go off in the first half or first two-thirds of this game. I don't see Chicago scoring enough here to make it an aerial attack for Washington. With Washington's sack rate on defense and tendency to give up sacks (they have allowed the most this year - 24), these quarterbacks may spend more time on the ground than upright making plays in this one.

Picks: WSH -5.5, UNDER 44.5

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