Free NBA Betting Picks- Today's Best Bets, Expert Predictions, Odds (5/2/23)

May 2, 2023

Josh Wiesel's top NBA betting picks and best bets for today's NBA games on 5/2/23. His free picks against the spread, teasers, parlays, and NBA player props.

We're back with two NBA playoff games to talk about this Tuesday night. The first-round ending always stinks because though we get closer to crowning a champion, the games become fewer and fewer. New York versus Miami enters game two tonight with the Knicks looking to even the series at home. LeBron and the Lakers trot into Stephen Curry's kingdom to begin a dream NBA playoff matchup.

In terms of my picks, I'll admit I haven't been too hot these playoffs. Golden State had a two-point lead after the first quarter in Game Six on Friday night and then decided to stop playing. The history of them in these situations all screamed towards covering -7.5 but it turned into a pretty awful defeat. No need to spend much time on the Memphis Grizzlies. I must've misread the line when it said +4.5 and thought it was +40.5. Good riddance to the Grizzlies, probably the team that's talked the most trash for guys that haven't accomplished anything. Two opportunities for two wins tonight, let's get into the games.

In this article, I’ll be providing my favorite picks against the spread and game totals for the NBA playoff games that tip off at 7:30 PM EST on Tuesday, May 2.

Miami Heat (+6.5) @ New York Knicks (206.5 total)

Series: Heat lead 1-0

Shoutout to the Miami Heat, they are the franchise that just refuses to die. After the first quarter, New York was up 32-21. Miami had the interesting strategy of turning this game into a three-point shootout, although they were missing most of them. The Heat shot 4-for-16 from three in the opening 12 minutes, scoring 21 points.

Miami was trying to see if their hot shooting was still there from the Milwaukee series. During the regular season, the Heat was a bottom-five three-point shooting team. All of a sudden, they turned into the best shooting team in the playoffs in their round-one win over the Milwaukee Bucks. Shots weren't falling in the first quarter against the Knicks and behind a raucous home crowd, New York had all the momentum.

The Heat would use a 29-23 second quarter to go into half only down five despite shooting 36 percent. New York shot 56 percent in the first half, there was just that feeling Miami was going to flip the game in the second half which they obviously did. Miami would play an excellent second half and win 108-101, taking a 1-0 series lead on enemy soil.

I'm not here to rehash the game as a bitter Knicks fan, rather, I want to look toward the total for game two. Both teams taking turns having bad shooting quarters was the story of game one. The only quarter both teams scored at least 25+ points was the fourth quarter. The total sat at 209.5 and ended at 209.

Tuesday night's total is set at 206.5. The final numbers from game one imply the Knicks shot poorly (and they did) but they also missed a ton of open shots.  They shot a decent 41/86 (48%) field goal percentage but shot a gross 7/34 (21%) from three and 12/20 (60%) from the foul line.

Miami shot just 36/85 (42%) field goal, 13/39 (33%) three-point, and 23/29 (79%) free throw percentages in this game. Overall these two teams combined to shoot 77/171 (45%) FG, 20/73 (27%) 3P, and 35/49 (71%) FT. This game should've easily soared over but will forever go in the history books as a razor-thin under.

Jimmy Butler injury:

The Heat superstar rolled his ankle with five minutes left in the fourth quarter:

He would stay in the game more as a decoy and finish with 25 points and 11 rebounds. When asked about it after the game, Jimmy gave a subtle response but clearly looked hobbled:

It's uncertain what Butler's status is for game two. He has scored 213 of the Heat's 728 points this postseason, a little over 29 percent of the total team points. Already without Tyler Herro, Miami would be missing two of their top scorers if Butler were to sit. Julius Randle and Jalen Brunson are both questionable for Game 2. Their status will probably become known after they go through a warmup before the game. I expect at least one of them to play.

Prediction:

Butler potentially being out definitely raises concerns about the Heat putting the ball in the basket. If there is anything we've learned about the Heat and coach Erik Spoelstra, he usually can find a way to make situations work. Between Kyle Lowry, Bam Adebayo, Gabe Vincent, Max Strus, Kevin Love, Duncan Robinson, etc. I think the Heat will be fine.

The Knicks have not had a good playoff scoring the ball, only putting up 99.8 per game. They averaged 116 during the regular season and I expect them to be sharper in Game 2. A lot of open shots and open misses in game one, just clean some of those up and we should see this game go over. Brunson or Randle both sound like they won't be at 100 percent but I'm ready to get weird with this game. Key players being hurt or not fully healthy can equate to other players stepping up and potentially a scoring increase.

The pick: Over 206.5 (-110 Fanduel)

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Los Angeles Lakers (+5) @ Golden State Warriors (228 total)

Series: Tied 0-0

What Stephen Curry did in game 7 in Sacramento against the Kings is hard to put into words. The only word that came to mind when watching a master at his craft was: Grateful.

We basketball fans get a treat that two months ago felt impossible: LeBron vs Steph in the playoffs.

Lakers:

The Lakers looked good, really good in their opening series win against the Memphis Grizzlies. After a blowout loss in Memphis in Game 5, Los Angeles proceeded to wipe the floor with them in Game 6, winning by 40. Some can point to the Grizzlies throwing in the towel, while I like to credit it to the strength of this Lakers team. They can run 8-9 players deep and should always have one of LeBron James or Anthony Davis on the court at all times.

What I liked seeing out of the Lakers is they put up 19.2 fastbreak points per game in the first round. This team is extremely well structured to run and gun and they also put up 53 points in the paint per game. Running and paint points make this Lakers team really dangerous. It should be noted they only shot 31 percent from three in the series and that number should improve. Golden State did a decent job limiting fastbreak and paint points to the Kings but having to defend Anthony Davis might be slightly tougher than Domantas Sabonis.

Warriors:

Golden State comes into this game off the game-seven win in Sacramento. Stephen Curry was breathtaking and the series was awesome but overall I didn't love what I saw from the Warriors. They had 45.3/32.8/75.0 shooting splits in the series. During the regular season, those numbers were 47.9/38.5/79.4. Of course with the playoffs comes added pressure and teams get opportunities to set up specific gameplans but it wasn't encouraging.

Los Angeles has had the second-best-rated defense this postseason. Matching up against them will be a little different from the Kings. Kevon Looney was incredible in Game 7, pulling down 21 rebounds with ten of those being offensive. He will need to bring his rebounding game this series as the Lakers are averaging the most rebounds per game this playoffs. Los Angeles has bodies to throw at the rim with at least seven players averaging three rebounds in the Memphis series. Draymond Green is really going to need to step up this series and be a defensive force.

Prediction:

I like the Lakers in this spot. I'm not really sure what the Warriors showed in the Kings series that would make someone super confident against the Lakers. As always, I could be totally wrong and I'll eat my words if the Warriors blow them out but I don't see it. I think the Lakers are the better team and will keep this game close, wouldn't be surprised if they won outright.

The Pick: Lakers +5 (-114 Fanduel)

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