RADIO
John's 7 breakout players and potential league-winning picks for 2025. His top breakout candidates include Jalen Hurts, De'Von Achane, Davante Adams, and more.
The term league winner gets tossed around the fantasy streets pretty often these days, and despite probably being overused, that doesn't mean they don't exist. A lot of work has been done on the topic.
The fact remains that not only will most draft picks return negative value, but only a small handful truly move the needle in terms of fantasy hardware. Two years ago, the Rams' duo of Kyren Williams and Puka Nacua propelled you to the finish line. Last year, possessing the Joe Burrow to Ja'Marr Chase battery or simply drafting Brock Bowers meant an engraved invitation to the second season.
Today, I do my very best to help you find those few bountiful oases in the vast fantasy desert.
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The Fab Four - Quarterback
Hopefully, this doesn't come off as an act of uncommitted fence-sitting -- but whoever said a league winner needs to be a name and not an archetype? With plenty of debate swirling around the need for one of the top-4 dual-threat quarterbacks, count me firmly in the "Yay" camp. Can't the answer just be yes?
Take your pick ... Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson in the third, Jayden Daniels at the Round 3/4 turn, or Jalen Hurts in the fourth, there's no going wrong. I'd even go so far as to say the majority of fantasy squads to make the playoffs nationwide will be led by a "Konami Code" player under center. Mark it down.
Somehow, every single one of the top-4 QBs finished above 20 fantasy points per game in 2024, yet consistently get drafted outside the top 30 overall. So, don't take my recent obsession as a blanket statement, but rather as a value assessment. Once you reach the third round, player situations and, therefore, projections become increasingly complex.
It's hard to deny that similarly priced players like Breece Hall, Kyren Williams, and Garrett Wilson all possess warts in their profiles. Think of it this way ... in a vacuum, can you envision any of those guys outscoring the Fab Four? I sure can't.
Not to totally cop out if you decide to take the early QB plunge with me, but my projections place Allen, Jackson, Daniels, and Hurts extremely close together. Therefore, my strategy is driven more by cost than anything. Sometimes Allen goes at the back end of the second, where I prefer Tee Higgins or Ladd McConkey, so I pass.
Other times, it's the end of the third round, and there isn't a single player on the board projecting anywhere close to someone like Daniels, so I pull the trigger.
For transparency's sake, as a volume player, my highest rostered quarterback is Hurts simply because his draft cost is the lowest. Through +100 drafts, I can't comprehend going with a remaining FLEX option in the late-third/early fourth round over any of these guys.
Jalen Hurts TO THE HOUSE AND THE PARTY IN SOUTH PHILLY HAS BEGUN. LFG. pic.twitter.com/fLPjnSm4T8
— Josh Reynolds (@JoshReynolds24) January 19, 2025
De'Von Achane, RB, Miami Dolphins
Year-over-year reactions to player seasons never cease to fascinate me. After an incredible rookie campaign featuring outlier efficiency metrics (7.8 yards/rush, 5.1 yards after contact per carry), De'Von Achane proved sustainability doubters wrong by carrying the Dolphins' workload last season. The former third-round pick ranked top-10 in snaps at the position (675), good for fantasy football's RB5 overall.
Given the stark decline in efficiency to 4.5 yards/rush in 2024, my regression model suggests that the truth lies somewhere in the middle going forward.
Achane's especially valuable in PPR formats due to his talent plus utilization in the pass game, which rates up there with fantasy-relevant pass-catchers on their own. Remember, Tua Tagovailoa missed a month early on, immediately sinking the Dolphins offense behind Tim Boyle and Tyler Huntley.
Remove those games without Tagovailoa, and Achane's constant high-value, versatile usage delivered clear first-round return, and the encore could be even more explosive.
De'Von Achane w/Tua Tagovailoa, 2024:
- 22.6 Fantasy Points Per Game
- 19.1 Touches Per Game
- 6.6 Targets Per Game
- 26.3% Target Per Route
- 104.6 Scrimmage Yards Per Game
- 31 Red Zone Rushes
- 13 Red Zone Targets
A rare sight: Team talks about using RB split wide, and then actually does it. De’Von Achane. pic.twitter.com/Hm2xte7bbt
— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) August 18, 2024
Isaac Guerendo, RB, San Francisco 49ers
Apologies in advance for putting any sort of negativity in the fantasy universe before we've even kicked off, but let's be honest -- staying healthy in the NFL isn't the type of thing that gets easier as you get older. So, while I hope Christian McCaffrey (who's an absolute joy to watch) stays healthy, the fact remains that he's missed 10+ games in three of the last five years.
Just look at the laundry list of prior injury news/notes, including several lower leg ailments that can't be a benefit for a runner entering his age-29 season.
- 2020-09-23 — Placed on IR with right high ankle sprain
- 2020-11-07 — Activated from IR
- 2020-11-13 — Shoulder injury (out)
- 2020-11-20 — Shoulder injury (out)
- 2021-10-01 — Hamstring injury (out)
- 2021-10-15 — Hamstring injury (out)
- 2021-10-16 — Placed on IR with hamstring injury
- 2021-11-06 — Activated from IR
- 2021-11-30 — Placed on IR with ankle injury
- 2021-12-14 — Placed on reserve/COVID-19 list
- 2021-12-22 — Activated from reserve/COVID-19 list
- 2024-09-14 — Placed on IR with Achilles and calf injuries
- 2024-11-09 — Activated from IR
- 2024-12-03 — Placed on IR with knee injury
Enter Isaac Guerendo, San Francisco's 25-year-old fourth-round sophomore out of Louisville, taking on the role of my top fantasy handcuff. 49ers brass decided to let incumbent second-stringer Jordan Mason move on to Minnesota, presumably clearing the runway for Guerendo in case of emergency.
In limited work as a rotational piece, Guerendo posted the league's seventh-highest ground speed among all RBs (12.6 mph) — all while boasting some eye-popping efficiency stats carrying the ball (0.43 fantasy points/snap, 5.0 yards/carry, 0.8 rush yards over expectation/attempt).
Remember when Mason injured his ankle last season, forcing him to miss Week 14? Guerendo slotted in as the feature back, scoring 26.8 fantasy points to finish as the weekend's overall RB2 (15-78-2; 2-50-0). All I'm saying is we've seen way less talented backs boast monster production in this same system, and a McCaffrey injury would make Guerendo the most coveted piece in the game.
Every Isaac Guerendo rookie season rush + target pic.twitter.com/8VVxHsU3KF
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) July 2, 2025
Davante Adams, WR, Los Angeles Rams
Not sure what kind of argument's even necessary for a time-tested fantasy alpha like Davante Adams at an ADP 32 price tag -- so here goes nothing. Even in what's being asserted by some as a letdown season, Adams still earned 141 targets for 1,063 yards and eight touchdowns. Can anyone say buy the dip?
The Raiders should be truly ashamed of the quarterback product they put on the field for fans in 2024. The motley conglomeration of Gardner Minshew, Aidan O'Connell, and Desmond Ridder combined for some of the worst team passing stats in the NFL: +0.10 EPA/attempt, 6.5 yards/attempt, 10.0 yards/completion, 19 TD:16 INT. Woof.
Sorry to drag Las Vegas through the mud there, but that level of incompetence under center will always result in cascading failures down the line. Amazingly, Adams pulled off the season he did -- and maybe even wilder, the Jets' version of Aaron Rodgers represented a marked upgrade.
To clear the air on Adams' utilization plus production after the move to New York, it's quite literally the same elite profile we've been paying top-15 overall prices for the entire time.
- 94.7% Route Participation
- 10.4 Targets Per Game
- 30.7% Team Target Share
- 6.1 Receptions Per Game
- 77.6 Receiving Yards Per Game
- 2.17 Yards Per Route
- 37.0% Team Air Yards
Now, the future Hall of Famer heads out to Hollywood to play with Matthew Stafford, a habitual wide receiver talent elevator. There's a case for Adams at the Round 2/3 turn, so he should be an auto-smash outside pick 30.
DAVANTE ADAMS WHEN YOU NEED HIM MOST
7 receptions
134 yards
2 TDs
34.4 fantasy points 🔥 pic.twitter.com/MK9HgG8lMH— NFL Fantasy Football (@NFLFantasy) December 15, 2024
Honorable Mentions
- Justin Fields, QB, NYJ
- Kenneth Walker III, RB, SEA
- Jayden Higgins, WR, HOU
- Tyler Warren, TE, IND
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