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With the NBA Draft and a good chunk of free agency behind us, major sportsbooks have begun releasing their season win totals for the 2023-2024 campaign. And since we're still more than a month away from televised hoops hitting our TVs, I thought it would be fun to take a closer look at how Vegas views each team.
That's precisely what we'll do here in this series. I will go division by division and share whether or not I would take the over or the under on each team's projected win total with some analysis along the way. Oh, and for the teams frequently mentioned in significant trade rumors (Miami Heat, Portland Trailblazers, Los Angeles Clippers), we'll try and save them for last.
So, for all you basketball sickos still looking to consume content smack dab in the middle of hoops wasteland, this is for you. Let's dive right into the Pacific Divison. And if you haven't already, you can check out the first two parts of this series where I made my predictions for the Central and Atlantic Divisions.
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2023-2024 Pacific Division Win Totals
The table below shows the highest current win totals at DraftKings Sportsbook for each team in the Pacific Division. I use DraftKings for odds to keep things consistent but shop around to other books to find the best value when possible.
| Team | Win Totals |
| Phoenix Suns | 54.5 |
| Golden State Warriors | 48.5 |
| Los Angles Lakers | 47.5 |
| Los Angeles Clippers | 46.5 |
| Sacramento Kings | 44.5 |
Phoenix Suns - UNDER 54.5 Wins (+100 DraftKings)
The Pacific division is remarkably stacked with talent, and the Suns will begin the year as the team to beat. On paper, their newly-minted 'Big 3' of Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, and Bradley Beal should reign supreme, but there are three pressing questions that have to be considered.
First, it's health. Durant has played no more than 47 games in three of the last four seasons and will turn 35 before the season tips off. The same can be said for Beal. Much like Durant, he's only been available for a total of 90 games over the last two seasons. Can these guys stay healthy? After all, Phoenix is clearly all-in for the Larry O'Brien. Nobody should be surprised to see them coast through the regular season in an effort to preserve their talent. This could certainly impact their regular season win total.
Up next, it's cohesion. How will this roster mesh to begin the year? They are only returning five players from last season's roster and history tells us it could take some for them to gel. Who will play point guard? Can Booker and Beal -- two off-ball monsters -- thrive on the floor together? These are all valid questions worth asking.
Lastly, it's depth. Team governor Mat Ishbia emptied out the asset chest in order to acquire the Big 3 and it's left them with limited flexibility to build out the rest of the roster. As a result, their biggest off-season additions are Bol Bol, Drew Eubanks, Keita Bates-Diop, and Yutu Watanabe. Sure, those guys are fun, but things could get ugly quickly if the injury bug decides to strike at any point during the season.
Ultimately, it's correct to view the Suns as contenders based on their talent alone, but when predicting their regular season win total, you'd be betting on everything to break right to feel comfortable taking the over. For that reason alone, I'm smashing the under on 54.5 wins.
Golden State Warriors - UNDER 49.5 Wins (-105 DraftKings)
The Warriors are a puzzling team to me heading into this season. Their biggest offseason splash was exchanging Jordan Poole for a 38-year-old Chris Paul and now there are reports that he will start alongside Stephen Curry in the backcourt. Curry is elite off-ball, so it really doesn't matter, but I do not see where Paul drastically elevates a team that led the NBA in assists (28.2) and assists rate (67.2%) last season.
The true wildcard for this team lies in their young guys, Moses Moody, and Jonathan Kuminga. Each has shown flashes in the past but inconsistency -- in playing time and production -- has marred their ascension. A third-year leap from both of these guys is all this team needs to reignite their dynasty DNA.
All in all, I'm sticking with under here, as the Warriors still feel like a low-40-win team at this juncture. Nothing they've done would indicate they are ready to win more than last year's total of 44 wins.
Los Angeles Lakers - OVER 47.5 Wins (-110 DraftKings)
I'm not going to mince words. The way Rob Pelinka has been able to redeem this roster is nothing short of spectacular. It feels like just yesterday that the Lakers entirely missed the postseason with 33 wins, influenced by a terribly constructed roster. That should not be the case this season.
They brought back Austin Reaves and inked D'Angelo Russell to a friendlier (and tradable) contract while adding Gabe Vincent, Christian Wood, Cam Reddish, Jaxson Hayes, and Taurean Prince in free agency. That's some solid depth for an aging legend and an oft-injured superstar.
Austin Reaves did Carmelo Anthony’s celebration right in front of him 😅👌pic.twitter.com/FW4J0WiQos
— Digits Hoops (@Digits3Hoops) September 8, 2023
The Lakers were humming after the trade deadline, winning 66% of their games to finish out the regular season. That pace would put them at 54 wins during an 82-game span. Expect more of the same this season, but with more depth to squeak out wins on nights that LeBron James or Anthony Davis don't feel like suiting up. I'm betting on the Lakes this season, so give me the over!
Los Angeles Clippers - UNDER 46.5 Wins (-110 DraftKings)
Moving over to the other team in town, the Clippers' success is tied directly to the health of their two stars, Kawhi Leonard and Paul George. Unfortunately, that hasn't been a positive. George has only averaged 47 games played in L.A. while Leonard has never played more than 57 games and missed the entire 2021-2022 season with a partial ACL tear in his right knee. Most recently he suffered a torn meniscus in his right knee during the first round of last year's postseason.
On paper, this shouldn't even be a question. This team certainly has the talent to win 47 games, but that will likely require 60+ games from Leonard and George. And if the duo does happen to miss any time, the Clippers aren't necessarily swimming in depth. They did add Kenyon Martin Jr. in free agency and brought back Russell Westbrook on a two-year deal, but will essentially 'run it back' with last year's roster for the most part.
All of this boils down to two questions. First, do we trust that Leonard and George can both string together healthy seasons? And second, how many wins can a roster of Westbrook, Martin, Norman Powell, Ivica Zubac, Bones Hyland, Robert Covington, Terance Mann, Nicolas Batum, and Mason Plumlee realistically give you if (when) the two stars miss time? If you answered YES to question number one, you would take the over. As for me, that's a bet I'm not willing to make. Give me the under on this one.
Sacramento Kings - OVER 44.5 Wins (-110 DraftKings)
I don't know about you, but I really enjoyed watching the Kings' emergence last season. After nearly two decades in basketball purgatory, they made the playoffs and gave the former champs a run for their money in the first round. Not only that, but they won 48 games and finished 3rd in the West.
Sacramento Kings: Keegan Murray
Keegan Murray was the most underrated Kings player last season. He was a knockdown shooter, and if the Summer League showed us anything, we can expect improvement as an on-ball player and defender. How good can he be in year 2? pic.twitter.com/4l7N4EqYUI
— Digits Hoops (@Digits3Hoops) September 4, 2023
As impressive as their season was, we can't ignore how big of a factor health played. Their top eight rotation guys played at least 73 games and their starting five missed a total of 21 games combined. I know, Domantas Sabonis and Keegan Murray played through thumb injuries for most of the season, with the former undergoing offseason surgery, but the importance of having a healthy roster for the majority of the season cannot be understated. I'm not going to sit here and say the Kings were unusually lucky, but what are the odds they enjoy this kind of health again? Any type of serious injury could certainly impact the outcome of a few games here and there.
The biggest variable for this team's success is Keegan Murray. He was an immediate mainstay in the starting lineup and proved to be productive as a rookie. If his Summer League performance is any indication of the leap he's slated to take this season, the Kings' ceiling only gets higher.
That said, this group is tough and gritty while also being well-coached by Mike Brown. I believe their health had more to do with the mentality of guys on the roster rather than luck. I bought in last year and I'm going to buy in again. I will confidently take the over on 44.5 wins this season.
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