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With the NBA Draft and a good chunk of free agency behind us, major sportsbooks have already begun releasing their season win totals for the 2023-2024 campaign. And since we're still more than two months away from televised hoops hitting our TVs, I thought it would be fun to take a closer look at how Vegas views each team.
That's precisely what we'll do here in this series. I will go division by division and share whether or not I would take the over or the under on each team's projected win total with some analysis along the way. Oh, and for the teams frequently mentioned in significant trade rumors (Miami Heat, Portland Trailblazers, Los Angeles Clippers), we'll try and save them for last.
So, for all you basketball sickos still looking to consume content smack dab in the middle of hoops wasteland, this is for you. Let's dive right into the Atlantic Divison. And if you haven't already, you can check out the first part of this series where I made my predictions for the Central Division here.
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The table below shows the highest current win totals at DraftKings Sportsbook for each team in the Atlantic Division. I use DraftKings for odds to keep things consistent but shop around to other books to find the best value when possible.
| Team | Win Totals |
| Boston Celtics | 53.5 |
| Philadelphia 76ers | 49.5 |
| New York Knicks | 44.5 |
| Brooklyn Nets | 37.5 |
| Toronto Raptors | 36.5 |
Boston Celtics - OVER 53.5 Wins (-135 DraftKings)
Many wondered if a last-minute coaching change would jumble the Celtics' cohesion in 2022-23. It didn't. They coasted to 57 victories, trailing only the Milwaukee Bucks for the league lead. Despite a few off-season shakeups, I expect that trend to continue next season.
Losing Marcus Smart and Grant Williams hurts. Those were two team-first guys who not only brought toughness and grit but the ability to guard multiple positions. The good news is that they are essentially replacing them with Kristaps Porzingis and more Derrick White minutes. Despite what Smart brought to this city, the addition of Porzingis simply lifts the ceiling of this team. Having a 7-3 big man who can defend the paint and space the floor is a luxury the Celtics haven't been able to enjoy in their contending years until now. At least not someone on Porzingis' level. (Sorry "Big Al" Horford). I also love that they took a flier on Oshae Brissett, a switchable 6-7 forward who should provide solid depth in the frontcourt.
All in all, it will be odd seeing Smart rock a jersey that's not green and white next season, but as long as Jayson Tatum and the $300 million dollar man Jaylen Brown are intact, this team has the talent to sleepwalk their way to 54 wins.
Philadelphia 76ers - UNDER 49.5 Wins (+125 DraftKings)
It feels odd to take under here, as 49.5 should be seen as a laughable total for a team fresh off 54 wins and with the reigning MVP on its roster. The truth is, there are a lot of moving pieces in Philly. And if we're being honest, we have no clue what this team will look like in a few months.
For those following along at home, here is the timeline of the Sixers' offseason thus far:
June: Tobias Harris' father takes a shot at the franchise's handling of his son
July: James Harden formally requests a trade
July: Joel Embiid says he "doesn't know where it's going to be" in reference to him winning a championship
Now, let's put all of this into perspective. As of this writing, Harden is the only one who has requested a trade and I do not believe Harris or Embiid will ask out anytime soon. The reason I mention the above, however, is to point out that there has certainly been a lot of bad press surrounding the Sixers' organization this offseason. That doesn't instill confidence when projecting next season's win total.
On top of all of that, Nick Nurse is entering his first season at the helm and while he's a proven coach, there could certainly be growing pains. Not to mention, Daryl Morey will gladly take the Harden drama into the season judging by how he handled Ben Simmons a couple of seasons ago. How's that for team chemistry?
New York Knicks - OVER 44.5 Wins (-120 DraftKings)
After years of being stuck in hoops purgatory, the Knicks finally broke through with 47 wins last season. Their performance was accentuated by a 4-1 defeat of the Cleveland Cavaliers in the first round before falling to the Miami Heat in the Semi-Finals. I know it's the Knicks, but I wouldn't be shocked to see them win 50 games this year.
Jalen Brunson is, like, really good at basketball. And his performance throughout the postseason has cemented himself as 'the guy' in New York. He returns, along with the entire starting cast and with most of the depth remaining intact. Obi Toppin is the only rotation player no longer in the picture. In Part 1 of this series, I spoke of how vital it is for the Milwaukee Bucks to return their core and how impactful that is for winning basketball games. Well, the Knicks check that box. And they've gone ahead and added Donte DiVincenzo to the mix, pairing him with former Villanova teammates in Brunson and Josh Hart.
Jalen Brunson. pic.twitter.com/GoEdfttrcW https://t.co/yio7AvbYsn
— KnicksMuse (@KnicksMuse) July 20, 2023
Put simply, the Knicks feel like a team on the rise doing all the right things. A total of 44.5 seems too low at the time of this writing. And who knows, maybe they see a window open up and decide to cash their chips in for a disgruntled star (*cough* *cough* Karl-Anthony Towns). They certainly have the pieces.
Brooklyn Nets - UNDER 37.5 Wins (-110 DraftKings)
Out of all the lines, this is the most puzzling to me. On one hand, I could see the Nets finish with 40-42 wins and sneak into the play-in. On the other, I could see them missing the playoffs entirely and finishing with a high lottery pick in next year's draft. Ultimately, I am down to two questions:
Can Mikal Bridges lead a team to win as an alpha?
Which version of Ben Simmons will we get?
Now, before you come at me with the "Bridges was fine as alpha last season" stuff, just remember that despite his gaudy numbers, the Nets went 12-15 in his 27 games with the team. I love Bridges. I want him to succeed. But I'm not *yet* convinced you can win 40 games with him as the number one option. As for Simmons, he's basically a wildcard. There's a world in which he suits up and provides All-NBA defense and elite playmaking. There's also another world where he doesn't play -- or play well. Neither would surprise me.
Because of the unknown element of this team, I will opt to play it safe and take the under. But if a few things break right, I wouldn't be shocked to see them flirt with 40 victories next season.
Toronto Raptors - UNDER 36.5 Wins (-120 DraftKings)
I don't know what's worse, Fred VanVleet dipping in free agency or replacing him with Dennis Schroder. Honestly, it's perplexing to me how the sportsbooks have enough confidence in the Raptors to give them even 36 wins next season. Call me crazy, but I just don't see it. The entire aura around this franchise just screams rebuild.
As if the VanVleet departure isn't rough enough, Pascal Siakam's name has been heating up in trade rumors and it sounds like his relationship with the franchise is becoming hairy. Just about the only positive juice surrounding this franchise right now is a Scottie Barnes pickup run video circulating on social media because most of NBA Twitter is bored. After selecting Gradey Dick at the back end of the lottery, it just makes more sense for them to finish with a poor record and a high draft pick.
All of that, combined with a first-year and first-time NBA head coach in Darko Rajakovic, I don't see a world in which the Raptors finish with 37 wins.
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