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2021 Starting Pitcher Rankings - 5x5 Mixed Leagues (Part 2)

We now move on to starting pitcher in our mixed-league rankings analysis series. If you missed them, here is our review of CatcherFirst Base, Second Base, Third Base, Shortstop, Outfield, and of course, Starting Pitcher Part One.

RotoBaller's rankers, JB Branson, Pierre Camus, Nick Mariano, and Ariel Cohen have updated our 2021 Mixed League rankings once more based on early spring training action.

You can also find our other draft rankings for all sorts of league formats, continually updated throughout the preseason, right here in our main fantasy baseball Rankings Wizard tool. Also, make use of all our premium resources with our MLB Draft Kit.

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2021 Fantasy Baseball Starting Pitcher Rankings

In case you missed it, our very own "Big Pick Nick" Mariano was named the #1 overall most accurate industry expert ranker for the 2018 season, and Ariel Cohen was the top ranker in 2019. In addition, ATC Projections by Ariel Cohen were the #1 most accurate projections system in 2019. Be sure to follow their updated rankings and projections all season long!

Ranking Tier Player Position
1 1 Jacob deGrom SP
2 1 Gerrit Cole SP
3 1 Shane Bieber SP
4 2 Yu Darvish SP
5 2 Trevor Bauer SP
6 2 Walker Buehler SP
7 2 Aaron Nola SP
8 2 Max Scherzer SP
9 2 Luis Castillo SP
10 2 Lucas Giolito SP
11 2 Jack Flaherty SP
12 2 Clayton Kershaw SP
13 3 Brandon Woodruff SP
14 3 Tyler Glasnow SP
15 3 Blake Snell SP
16 3 Zac Gallen SP
17 3 Carlos Carrasco SP
18 3 Hyun Jin Ryu SP
19 3 Corbin Burnes SP
20 3 Lance Lynn SP
21 3 Kenta Maeda SP
22 3 Sonny Gray SP
23 3 Max Fried SP
24 4 Jose Berrios SP
25 4 Kyle Hendricks SP
26 4 Stephen Strasburg SP
27 4 Zach Plesac SP
28 4 Zack Greinke SP
29 4 Zack Wheeler SP
30 4 Dinelson Lamet SP
31 4 Jesus Luzardo SP
32 4 *Framber Valdez* SP
33 5 Ian Anderson SP
34 5 Chris Paddack SP
35 5 Dylan Bundy SP
36 5 Lance McCullers Jr. SP
37 5 Sixto Sanchez SP
38 5 Joe Musgrove SP
39 5 Charlie Morton SP
40 5 Pablo Lopez SP
41 5 Kevin Gausman SP
42 5 Julio Urias SP
43 5 Frankie Montas SP
44 5 Patrick Corbin SP
45 5 Sandy Alcantara SP
46 6 Corey Kluber SP
47 6 German Marquez SP
48 6 David Price SP
49 6 Shohei Ohtani DH/SP
50 6 Marco Gonzales SP
51 6 Dustin May SP
52 6 Jose Urquidy SP
53 6 Andrew Heaney SP
54 6 Triston McKenzie SP
55 6 Chris Sale SP
56 6 Zach Eflin SP
57 6 Eduardo Rodriguez SP
58 6 Tyler Mahle SP
59 7 Chris Bassitt SP
60 7 Mike Soroka SP
61 7 Cristian Javier SP
62 7 Nathan Eovaldi SP
63 7 Aaron Civale SP
64 7 Dallas Keuchel SP
65 7 Tony Gonsolin SP
66 7 John Means SP
67 7 Elieser Hernandez SP
68 7 Marcus Stroman SP
69 8 Brady Singer SP
70 8 Jameson Taillon SP
71 8 James Paxton SP
72 8 Drew Smyly SP
73 8 Sean Manaea SP
74 8 Jordan Montgomery SP
75 8 Michael Pineda SP
76 8 Ryan Yarbrough SP
77 8 Dane Dunning SP
78 8 Nate Pearson SP
79 8 Noah Syndergaard SP
80 8 Michael Kopech SP
81 9 Kwang Hyun Kim SP
82 9 Tarik Skubal SP
83 9 Domingo German SP
84 9 Deivi Garcia SP
85 9 Griffin Canning SP
86 9 Luis Severino SP
87 9 Taijuan Walker SP
88 9 Justus Sheffield SP
89 9 Zach Davies SP
90 9 Casey Mize SP
91 9 Caleb Smith SP
92 9 Mike Foltynewicz SP
93 10 Matthew Boyd SP
94 10 Yusei Kikuchi SP
95 10 Josh Lindblom SP
96 10 MacKenzie Gore SP
97 10 Mitch Keller SP
98 10 Adbert Alzolay SP
99 10 Jake Odorizzi SP
100 10 Madison Bumgarner SP
101 10 Brad Keller SP
102 10 Mike Minor SP
103 10 Spencer Turnbull SP
104 10 Miles Mikolas SP
105 10 Spencer Howard SP
106 10 David Peterson SP
107 10 Trevor Rogers SP
108 10 Tanner Houck SP
109 10 Luke Weaver SP
110 10 Robbie Ray SP
111 10 Merrill Kelly SP
112 11 Carlos Martinez SP
113 11 Luis Patino SP
114 11 Brendan McKay 1B/SP
115 11 JT Brubaker SP
116 11 Grant Holmes SP
117 11 Adam Wainwright SP
118 11 Keegan Akin SP
119 11 Dylan Cease SP
120 11 Kyle Freeland SP
121 11 Tejay Antone SP/RP
122 11 Kyle Wright SP
123 11 Brent Suter SP
124 11 Johnny Cueto SP
125 11 Matt Shoemaker SP
126 11 Justin Dunn SP
127 12 Tyler Phillips SP
128 12 Dean Kremer SP
129 12 J.A. Happ SP
130 12 Garrett Richards SP
131 12 Tyler Ivey SP
132 12 A.J. Puk SP
133 12 Joe Ryan SP
134 12 Jesse Hahn SP
135 12 Rich Hill SP
136 12 Matt Manning SP
137 12 Mike Clevinger SP
138 12 Forrest Whitley SP
139 12 Kris Bubic SP
140 12 Alex Wood SP
141 12 Danny Duffy SP
142 12 Adrian Morejon SP
143 12 Cal Quantrill SP/RP
144 12 Chris Archer SP
145 13 Touki Toussaint SP/RP
146 13 Collin McHugh SP/RP
147 13 Alec Mills SP
148 13 Josh Fleming SP
149 13 Garrett Whitlock SP
150 13 Ross Stripling SP/RP
151 13 Taylor Widener SP
152 13 Brent Honeywell Jr. SP
153 13 Randy Dobnak SP
154 13 Adrian Houser SP
155 13 Jason Vargas SP
156 13 Kyle Gibson SP/RP
157 13 Jonathan Loaisiga SP
158 13 Antonio Senzatela SP
159 13 Jorge Alcala SP
160 13 Brock Burke SP
161 13 Ariel Jurado SP
162 13 Clayton Richard SP
163 13 Alex Cobb SP
164 13 Kyle Cody SP
165 13 Joey Wentz SP
166 13 Clarke Schmidt SP
167 13 Anthony DeSclafani SP
168 13 Logan Gilbert SP
169 13 Joey Lucchesi SP
170 13 Jon Gray SP
171 13 Trevor Stephan SP
172 13 Patrick Sandoval SP
173 13 Vladimir Gutierrez SP
174 13 Neftali Feliz SP/RP
175 13 Daulton Jefferies SP
176 13 Brian Howard SP
177 13 Dylan Covey SP
178 13 Jose Quintana SP
179 13 Austin Gomber SP
180 13 Daniel Lynch SP
181 13 Jasseel De La Cruz SP
182 13 Gray Fenter SP
183 13 Daniel Ponce de Leon SP
184 13 Logan Webb SP
185 13 Jhoan Duran SP
186 13 DL Hall SP
187 13 Sean Newcomb SP/RP
188 13 Edward Cabrera SP
189 13 Bryse Wilson SP
190 13 Parker Dunshee SP
191 13 Chad Kuhl SP
192 14 Dillon Peters SP/RP
193 14 Jose Soriano SP
194 14 Steven Brault SP
195 14 Trevor Cahill SP/RP
196 14 Nick Margevicius SP
197 14 Keegan Thompson SP
198 14 Jose Urena SP/RP
199 14 Michael Wacha SP
200 14 Thomas Szapucki SP
201 14 Reynaldo Lopez SP
202 14 Corbin Martin SP
203 14 Jackson Kowar SP
204 14 Jaime Barria SP
205 14 Joe Ross SP/RP
206 14 Josiah Gray SP
207 14 Matt Moore SP
208 14 Vince Velasquez SP/RP
209 14 Rick Porcello SP
210 14 Tucker Davidson SP
211 14 Cory Abbott SP
212 14 Jose Suarez SP
213 14 Jordan Balazovic SP
214 14 Packy Naughton SP
215 14 Huascar Ynoa SP
216 14 Carlos Rodon SP
217 14 Luis Oviedo SP
218 14 Eli Morgan SP
219 14 Tyler Chatwood SP
220 14 Connor Seabold SP
221 14 Jon Lester SP
222 14 Mike Fiers SP
223 14 Daniel Norris SP
224 14 Cole Hamels SP
225 14 Sean Hjelle SP
226 14 Martin Perez SP
227 14 Matt Harvey SP
228 14 Austin Voth SP
229 14 Dakota Hudson SP
230 14 Michael Fulmer SP
231 14 Wade Miley SP
232 14 Kolby Allard SP
233 14 Julio Teheran SP
234 14 Tanner Roark SP
235 14 Trevor Williams SP
236 14 Steven Matz SP
237 14 Jakob Junis SP
238 14 Tyler Beede SP
239 14 Shane McClanahan SP
240 14 Eric Lauer SP


Tier Six

Tier six is the gambler's tier, you feelin' lucky? This range feature's some of the biggest names of yesteryear who could be huge values if they can return to their former selves after missing all or most of last season. Corey Kluber, David Price, Chris Sale, and Eduardo Rodriguez can all blow their ADP out of the water if they pitch like they have prior to 2020, but also are some of the riskiest names on draft day. The one I'm most willing to bet on is Rodriguez who has looked great thus far in Spring Training. He missed the 2020 season due to complications with COVID, but says he feels healthy and finished sixth in Cy Young voting last time we saw him in 2019.

Fellow Red Sox starter Chris Sale, on the other hand, is being drafted this high for name recognition. Sure, he has the highest ceiling of the group, but he has reportedly had some setbacks in his recovery from Tommy John surgery. He's throwing off of flat ground now and is on track for a midseason return. However, with four years left on Sale's $145 million contract extension, the Red Sox will prioritize Sale's long-term health rather than rushing him this season, especially if they fall behind early competing in a tough AL East. This draft price is too rich for my risk-appetite.

The other pair of LA pitchers in this tier also feel a bit risky. Dustin May is very talented, but his role in a deep Dodgers rotation leaves a lot to be desired fantasy-wise. He hasn't shown strikeout ability in the Majors with under a strikeout-per-inning in his two MLB stints. I'd rather have his teammate Tony Gonsolin in the next tier down.

Then there's two-way phenom Shohei Ohtani of the Angels. His ceiling as a top-40 pitcher and a top-40 hitter is obviously unmatched in fantasy baseball (check your league settings for two-way player rules!) but that upside also carries unprecedented risk. He's thrown just 53 1/3 MLB innings in his career and only 1 2/3 have come since returning from Tommy John surgery last year. He has lit up the radar gun in Spring Training, however, and will out-perform this tier if he is healthy enough to reach even 120 innings.

Tier Six also offers a ton of upside. Zach Eflin is a pitcher I'm targeting early and often this season after a breakout in 2020. Sure, it was a small sample, but Eflin made changes to his repertoire that should help his success stick. Last season, Eflin morphed from a four-seam/cutter/slider pitcher into one who relies on a sinker/curveball combo. This led to a 10 percent spike in strikeout rate and a three percent bump in ground ball rate. Eflin is a former first-round pick entering his age-27 season. A breakout feels eminent.

Another player who has been the apple-of-my-eye this draft season is Tyler Mahle. Like Eflin, Mahle made tangible changes in 2020 that led to a career-year. Some may doubt his 3.59 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 29.9 percent strikeout rate breakout last season, but those people will not have the pleasure of rostering my favorite darkhorse Cy Young candidate.

The last tier-six pitcher of note is 29-year-old Marco Gonzales. The left-hander gets a bump in leagues that replace wins with quality starts. He's upped his quality-start percentage three-straight seasons and had seven in 11 starts last season. He's quietly emerged as the ace of the Mariners by posting an ERA of four or under in three straight seasons.


Tier Seven

The highlight of this tier is Cleveland starter Aaron Civale who outperformed his underwhelming stat line last season.  The 25-year old allowed eight runs in four innings in his last start of the regular season. That one clunker jacked his ERA up 0.75 runs; you have to love small sample sizes. Prior to that outing, he made 11 starts and lasted at least six innings in all of them. He was dominant in 2019 as a minor leaguer and he seems to be finding his footing in the Majors. Given the Indians' recent history of developing pitching talent, I'm betting on Civale to keep improving.

At this point in the draft, it's important to keep roster construction in mind. Do you have enough strikeouts? How are your ratios looking? Knowing how to build a well-rounded pitching staff is important when considering a hurler like Dallas Keuchel or Mike Soroka - aka Dallas Keuchel Lite. Both the veteran Keuchel and the youngster Soroka rely heavily on elite ground ball rates to pitch deep into games. They won't rack up K's, but they can provide stable ratios and a healthy win total backed by strong offenses.

In tier six, we talked about pitchers that missed all or most of 2020. The best 2020 absentee to make his grand return may very well be Marcus Stroman. The last time we saw him pitch in 2019, he tossed 184 1/3 innings at a 3.22 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP. He was among the league leaders in avoiding hard contact and had a strong 3.75 xERA. He hasn't pitched since suffering a torn left calf muscle but he has been vocal about feeling healthy and has also talked about incorporating a new slider he developed after opting out of last season.

Speaking of pitchers who can be exciting with a new pitch, Elieser Hernandez has talked about reincorporating a changeup to his repertoire. The 25-year-old Marlin flashed a 32.1 percent strikeout rate last year in just 25 1/3 innings. He won't pitch a ton of innings, but he can provide strong ratios and a healthy amount of strikeouts when he is on the bump.


Tier Eight

The deeper we dive into these rankings, the more opinions will differ within the tiers. Brady Singer is a pitcher I'd take over several starters in tier seven. Singer was a first-round pick out of the University of Florida where he was the ace of their 2018 National Championship team and named the SEC Pitcher of the Year. He only pitched in two minor league seasons - High-A and Double-A - but had an xFIP under 3.60 in both of them. He would've started last season at Triple-A, but thanks to the pandemic, he had to take a few lumps in the Majors. Despite some growing pains, Singer finished with a respectable 4.05 ERA supported by a 4.06 xFIP. He'll turn 25 this year so expect more improvement from a future-ace.

Nate Pearson, Michael Kopech, and Noah Syndergaard are three of the hardest throwers in the game. That may or may not be related to each of them dealing with injury situations, but their upside is high when they are on the mound. Kopech will start the season in the bullpen to manage his innings but will wind up in the rotation. Pearson is already dealing with a groin injury and seems to be ticketed for the bullpen - if not the IL -  to start the season. Then there's Syndergaard, who is working his way back from Tommy John surgery and is aiming for, "a midseason return." While that quote is probably intentionally vague, this is a good spot for Thor. I'd much rather take a shot on Syndergaard here than Sale in tier six.


Tier Nine

Tier nine is prospect territory. The veteran names here like Zach Davies and Mike Foltynewicz will be waiver wire fodder by June. My favorite name to target is Deivi Garcia who is the number three prospect in the Yankees farm system. He got a taste of the Majors last season and showed more promise than his 4.98 ERA would indicate. He had a sub-five percent walk rate and boasted two pitches that posted a negative run value. He may not start the season in the rotation, but the cream rises to the top and there's a roughly zero percent chance Corey Kluber, Jamison Tailon, and Jordan Montgomery hold Garcia back all season.

Griffin Canning doesn't qualify as a prospect anymore, but he 24-year-old fits the narrative of a tier loaded with young arms. Canning's issues in the Majors thus far have stemmed from a four-seam fastball that posted a run value of eight last season, one of the worst marks in the game. His slider and changeup, however, rank well above average. Canning also throws a cutter so it's not hard to envision a path to success by slashing that 40.6 percent four-seamer usage in favor of his better offerings.

The other two tantalizing youngsters in this tier are Tigers prospects Casey Mize and Tarik Skubal. Mize is a former number-one overall pick who got hammered in the Majors last year but was another victim of no Triple-A season. The year prior in Double-A, Mize threw 78 2/3 innings at a 3.20 ERA with a 2.98 FIP. Give up on his talent at your own risk. Then there's Skubal who struck out 82 batters in 42 2/3 innings in Double-A in 2019. Like Mize, Skubal got roughed up in his first MLB action but the best is yet to come for the future of the Tigers.


Tier 10

This is the last tier I'm willing to draft from when it comes to rounding out a starting rotation for fantasy in a 12-team league. They're not ideal, but Madison Bumgarner, Mike Minor, Josh Lindblom, and Jake Odorizzi make for fine starters to own and deploy when they have a good matchup. Odorizzi is an interesting name after signing with the Astros. We've seen Houston turn worse pitchers into quality starters for fantasy and Odorizzi was good in 2019 pitching to a 3.51 ERA with a 27 percent strikeout rate.

Mitch Keller has certainly had an odd start to his MLB career which is why it's strange to see his average draft position this low. Sure he's gotten off to a rocky start in his two seasons, but this is still a pitcher who's thrown less than 70 Big League innings. Keller sports three "plus" pitches and revamped his changeup this offseason. The talent that made him a sought-after prospect still exists and he's available roughly 100 picks later than he was drafted in 2020.

Finally, I can't go through tier 10 without mentioning Matthew Boyd. The left-hander sports some of the best advanced-metrics in the game, but you'd never know it watching him serve up homers like he's pitching a tennis ball. Boyd induced swinging-strikes at a 12.5 percent rate last season, good for 15th in baseball. Each of the 14 starters above him is tier five or better in this year's rankings. Boyd had the third-highest HR/FB rate last season and had the worst strand-rate since he was a rookie. He may explode spectacularly again, but at this price, you won't find a pitcher with more upside. Roll the dice on Boyd with me.


Tier 11

There are two types of pitchers to target here, the first is high-upside young arms that could make a big impact if everything goes well. Dylan Cease has a career ERA of five across his first two MLB seasons but is someone who consistently put up good numbers in the minors and could be a strong fantasy asset with a few improvements. He has a heater that sits at 97.5 MPH and is backed by one of MLB's best offenses.

The other type of pitcher to target may not be the most flattering of options, but they can pitch well when they have a good matchup and will help fill out a rotation in deeper fantasy leagues. J.T. Brubaker of the Pirates is by no means a league-winner, but he'll be out there every fifth day and outperformed his stat line last year. There's also Kyle Freeland in this tier who has been a solid streamer at times in his career. You won't want to play him in his home starts, but Freeland has upside and who knows, he may get even traded this year as the Rockies begin a rebuild.


Tier 12

J.A. Happ is interesting as a bounce-back candidate but by this point, I'd hope to have most of my pitching staff filled out. Happ had a sub-four FIP every season from 2015 through 2018 with decent strikeout numbers. His career has taken a dip since then, but he signed a one-year deal in Minnesota and will be relied on to eat innings for the Twins. He can pick up some cheap wins and strikeouts.

Prospect enthusiasts will also recognize a couple of popular names in Dean Kremer of the Orioles and Matt Manning of the Tigers. Kremer made four starts last year at the Big League level and got hit hard. Step one for Kremer will be to get his walks under control as he battled uncharacteristic walk issues in the Majors. Manning hasn't pitched above Double-A, but he's a former first-round pick and posted strong strikeout totals in the minors. He'll likely start at Triple-A, but he's a worthy stash candidate this deep in the draft.


Tier 13

We'll start the tier with Kyle Gibson who was just named the Rangers Opening Day starter. Gibson has some name-recognition going for him, but he pitched to a 5.35 ERA with a 5.70 xERA last season. His xBA and hard-hit rates have gone up in three-straight seasons and it seems the sun has set on the fantasy career of a former reliable arm.

Does your 5x5 league still use wins? If so, Colin McHugh is an outstanding sleeper target. McHugh has had success as both a starter and reliever in his career with Houston and will earn a ton of cheap wins pitching as a bulk-reliever for the Rays. McHugh pitched to a 1.99 ERA in 72 1/3 innings in 2018, but became a forgotten man after a brutal 2019 and opting out of 2020. Tampa Bay has a history of getting the best out of their pitchers and McHugh should benefit from his role as a swingman for the defending AL champs.


Tier 14

Still with us? Good. We're almost at the end of a deep league draft here and are looking for dart throws that could be usable fantasy assets. Huascar Ynoa is a 22-year-old prospect in the Braves system that can be worth a stash. The same can be said for Connor Seabold of the Red Sox. Seabold is a little older than Ynoa, but both should pitch in the Majors this season.

Matt Moore and Vince Velasquez are battling for a rotation job in Philadelphia and the winner of that battle could have value, especially if it's Velasquez. He's got a dominant four-seam fastball and has a path to success if he can improve his other offerings.

The last name I want to touch on is Shane McClanahan. The 23-year-old lefty is a pitching prospect in Tampa who has been lighting up the radar gun this spring, regularly sitting 98-100 MPH. He'll start the season in Triple-A, but expect to see McClanahan early in the season. He may even appear as a reliever; Tampa is never shy about using its best pitchers as high-leverage relievers. In fact, I like his 2021 fantasy value more if he winds up in the Rays bullpen as he may be good for 5-10 saves.

Look at that, it took over 200 names and 14 tiers but we finally filled the fifth roto category after breaking down all those starters.

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A Volatile Play Heading To Muirfield Village
4 days ago

Tom Kim Making Debut At The Memorial
Justin Thomas4 days ago

To Contend At The Memorial
Rory McIlroy4 days ago

Looks To Keep Momentum Going At The Memorial
Viktor Hovland4 days ago

In Search Of Signature Win
Xander Schauffele4 days ago

A Favorite At The Memorial
Thomas Detry4 days ago

Set For Memorial Debut
Kurt Kitayama4 days ago

A Boom-Or-Bust Option At Muirfield
Corey Conners4 days ago

Should Stay Hot At Muirfield
Cameron Young4 days ago

Continues To Struggle
Tyrrell Hatton4 days ago

Continues To Stay Hot
Patrick Rodgers4 days ago

Continues To Struggle On Approach
Adin Hill5 days ago

Shuts Out Stars In Game 6
Reilly Smith5 days ago

Hands Out Two Assists In Game 6 Victory
William Karlsson5 days ago

Tallies Three Points As Vegas Eliminates Dallas