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Updated 2021 fantasy baseball outfielder rankings for 5x5 roto mixed leagues. Our OF MLB rankings are from #1 accuracy expert Nick Mariano, Ariel Cohen, Pierre Camus, and JB Branson.
We now move on to the outfielder position in our mixed-league rankings analysis series. If you missed them, here is our review of Catcher, First Base, Second Base, Third Base and Shortstop.
RotoBaller's rankers, JB Branson, Pierre Camus, Nick Mariano, and Ariel Cohen have updated our 2021 Mixed League rankings once more based on early spring training action.
You can also find our other draft rankings for all sorts of league formats, continually updated throughout the preseason, right here in our main fantasy baseball Rankings Wizard tool. Also, make use of all our premium resources with our MLB Draft Kit.
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2021 Fantasy Baseball Outfielder Rankings
In case you missed it, our very own "Big Pick Nick" Mariano was named the #1 overall most accurate industry expert ranker for the 2018 season, and Ariel Cohen was the top ranker in 2019. In addition, ATC Projections by Ariel Cohen were the #1 most accurate projections system in 2019. Be sure to follow their updated rankings and projections all season long!
Tier One
Three years ago, Ronald Acuna and Juan Soto emerged on the scene at two of the best rookies of all now. Now, they are arguably the two most valuable fantasy players in the league. Acuna gets the slight edge because of his advantage in baserunning (32 projected steals to 16 steals), but Soto, who is coming off an absurd 201 WRC+ season, has a strong argument as the best hitter in baseball.
Right behind them are Mookie Betts, who someone got better in his first season in Dodger Blue, setting a career-high in sweet spot percentage and home run rate. It's scary to think that Betts might still be improving, as his well-rounded game (Projected .297 avg, 35 HR, 20 SB) already made him one of the safest picks in baseball.
Once the unanimous best fantasy player in baseball, Mike Trout has slipped a bit due to less aggressive baserunning (just one steal last year) and a "down" 2020 (career-low 162 WRC+). That being said, Mike Trout is Mike Trout, and even in a down season, he still improved his exit velocity by almost 3 mph.
Finally in Tier 1 is Brewers right fielder Christian Yelich. Yelich had a pitiful 2020 season, but upon closer look, there are signs that it might have been a short season fluke. Like Trout, Yelich still managed to have a career-high exit velocity in a down season, a total that landed him in the 99 percentile among major league hitters. The culprit appears to be a career-high 30.8% strikeout rate and a wildly unlikely .259 BABIP. There are safer options available, but it's far more likely that Yelich's down season was more attributed to unluckiness and small sample size than an actual decline of skill.
Tier Two
The first three hitters in Tier 2 could all conceivably lead the MLB in home runs. Cody Bellinger's stock slipped a bit following a down 2020, but there's just too much talent there for him to slide even further. Bellinger's contact and strikeout rates barely moved, so the main culprit appears to be a .245 BABIP. Expect Bellinger to return to his MVP form this season.
Bryce Harper may never reach his 2015 MVP pinnacle again, but his ability to hit for power, get on base, and drive in runs will always make him a valuable fantasy player. Harper looked far more comfortable in year two in Philadelphia, increasing his walk rate by four percent and cutting his strikeout rate by nine. His best Philadelphia days may be in front of him.
One of the most hyped prospects of the past decade, Eloy Jimenez had a relatively disappointing debut in 2019, even though a 116 OPS+ is nothing to complain about. Last year, Jimenez made exactly the kind of strides you want to see in a young player: A lower strikeout rate, a nearly thirty-point increase in average, a higher average exit velocity, and a massive spike in home runs. His pitiful 5% walk rate leaves a lot to be desired and prevents him from being in that upper echelon of hitters, but if he's hitting 40 and 120 every year, I'm not sure fantasy players will mind too much.
Kyle Tucker is the first big surprise on this list, as he makes a Tier 2 appearance after just 108 up-and-down career major league games. It's easy to see where the hype comes from: He had nine homers and eight steals in just 58 games last year, and he will rack up the runs and RBIs in a stacked Astros lineup. There is elite potential here, but there's obvious risk to drafting him ahead of some of the established players we have in Tier Three.
Tier Three
First up in Tier Three is Marcell Ozuna, who turned the best season of his career into a contract extension with the Braves. Everything about his 2020 was promising: A career-high exit velocity and hard-hit percentage, both ranking in the top 5 percentile of all qualified hitters, a three percent increase in walk rate, and a massive power surge. Ozuna is only entering his age 30 season, and while he won't produce much value in the field or on the bases, there's no reason to believe he won't continue to produce MVP level offensive numbers for the foreseeable future.
Luis Robert didn't quite meet the massive and unfair expectations placed on him in his rookie season, but an above-average OPS and 20 combined home runs and steals showed his immense potential. To reach the top tier of outfielders, Robert needs to improve his terrible plate discipline, as he struck out nearly four times as often as he walked last year. Robert has the speed to be atop the steals leaderboards every year, but that skill is limited if his on-base percentage is hovering around .300. Even with his question marks, Robert's speed and power combo as well as the talent surrounding him in the White Sox lineup makes him a top-15 outfielder.
At this point of his career, you know exactly when you are getting out of Whit Merrifield: an average of around .280, around 12-15 home runs, and nearly 200 hits. The big question is whether he can continue his elite baserunning into his early 30s. Merrifield led the league in steals twice from 2017-2018 but was held to just 20 steals in 2019, his first season after turning 30. Merrifield's stealing ability is the difference between him being a solid, dependable mid-draft option and from him being one of the best fantasy outfielders in the game.
George Springer put together another fine campaign in 2020 and turned his 131 career OPS+ and reputation as the best active postseason hitter into a massive contract with the Blue Jays. Health is always the main concern with Springer: Entering his age 31 season, he's only played more than 140 games once. He is no longer any threat on the bases, and his average exit velocity last year was the worst of his career. Springer will always be a risky pick, but his elite power will always keep him near the top tier of outfielders.
Similar to Springer, Aaron Judge's value all comes down to health. He has not played more than 70 percent of his team's games since 2017 and has not reached the heights of his monstrous rookie season since. Last year was particularly concerning, as his exit velocity and barrel percentage fell by eight percent and four percent, respectively. Yes, you can chalk that up to small sample size and rib and calf injuries, but there is no denying that none of his rate stats have been the same since 2017. Don't fall for the name recognition: Aaron Judge should not be at the top of draft boards, and he has to prove he can be both healthy and productive before he moves out of Tier 3.
With all Marte went through last year on and off the field, it seems unfair to give him any serious evaluation of his 2020 performance. What he did prove is that he is still an elite 5-tool player, and while he doesn't possess the power of a Judge or Springer, he is a sneaky good pick at this point of the draft.
Yordan Alvarez is a player I really like at this spot. With all the controversy surrounding the Astros the last few years, it's easy to forget just how dominant he was in 2019. Alvarez wasn't just good for a rookie, he was the best hitter in baseball not named Mike Trout or Christian Yelich, as his OPS+ would have been third in the majors had he qualified. The advanced stats back it up: He was in the top 10 percentile in just about every batted ball category. His playoff performance left a lot to be desired and we only saw two games of him last year, but the player we saw in 2019 was a Tier 1 player, so to get him in this spot is an absolute steal. Assuming he is healthy, of course. Beware his positional eligibility, as he qualifies at DH/UTIL only in some formats.
Tier Four
What to make of Randy Arozarena? On one hand, he was excellent against major league pitching as a rookie during the regular season and then hit like Babe Ruth during the postseason. On the other hand, he was a 25-year-old career minor leaguer, and 43 games are far too small a sample to make an accurate judgment on what kind of player he will be moving forward. If you're willing to deal with the risk, Arozerana could turn out to be the steal of the draft. Or, he could be in minors by July.
Another risky player with a small sample size is Trent Grisham. Grisham showcased his flashy tools during the shortened season, reaching double digits in both home runs and steals. Likely leading off in a stacked Padres lineup, he will rack up runs, so even if he doesn't match his 122 OPS+ of 2020, his speed and on-base-skills make him a great option at this point of the draft.
Lost in the shuffle of more famous teammates Pete Alonso, Jacob deGrom and now Fransico Lindor, Michael Conforto is a damn good baseball player. There were only seven players with an on-base percentage higher than Conforto's last year, and only four of those seven could match his .412 on-base percentage. Hitting in an absolute stacked lineup, Conforto's ability to get on base and hit for power will make him one of the most valuable fantasy hitters in baseball.
Last year was Teoscar Hernandez's breakout season, as he set a career-high in average by 60 points and improved his already good home run rate from one every 16 at-bats to one every 11.8 at-bats. The advanced numbers back it up too: He was in the 98th percentile and 97th in expected slugging. He'll never walk much or provide and value on the bases, but his power in the Blue Jay's stacked lineup is too tantalizing to pass up.
For the first two weeks of the 2020 season, Nick Castellanos was the best player in baseball, hitting .340 with a 1.251 OPS over his first 14 games. For the remaining three-quarters of the season, however, he hit .190 with a .644 OPS. This is a concerning trend for a player who's really only had half a season of elite fantasy value in his entire career. He is also hitting in a lineup that was 24th in the majors in on-base percentage, which limits his ability to drive in his runs, his most valuable fantasy statistic. There are many more valuable players in Tier 4 than Castellanos.
Tier Five
Tier 5 is filled with bounce-back candidates and high-risk/ high reward players. The chief among them is J.D Martinez, the former best hitter in baseball who is now trying to recover from a disastrous 2020 season. Martinez showed an obvious decline in back speed last year, as evident by his nearly 13o point drop in batting average on fastballs, but he is just two years removed from a .304/.383/.557 season, so it's hard to completely give up one. Also trying to bounce back from a lost 2020 season is Austin Meadows, who battled through an injury-plagued campaign in which he hit just .204 with 4 home runs. The last time we saw Meadows play a full, healthy season, he was an All-Star, and at 26, his best baseball may be in front of him.
There are many players who caught my eye in Tier 5. I really like Jeff McNeil at this spot. He's had an on-base percentage above .380 in each of the last three years, and with all the talent he is surrounded by in the Mets lineup, he will rank near the top of the NL in runs scored. Mike Yastrzemski is another player I like here. Because of the team he plays for and the lack of flash in his game, he flies under the radar, but he was an absolute superstar last year. Just to put his excellence in context: His 165 OPS+ was higher than all the hitters in Tier 2.
Jorge Soler is one of the most interesting players on this list. He famously set the Royals home run record in 2019 but fell off the table in 2020. Nothing really changed in his underlying statistics besides a slight increase in strikeout rate, however, so he is a strong bounce-back candidate. If you are looking for a cheap power source, Soler is the way to go.
Then there are the players I don't love taking at this spot. One of those players is Charlie Blackmon. His exit velocity and hard-hit percentage were in the bottom 20 percent of hitters, and after his smoking hot, BABIP induced start, he hit just .216 with a .610 OPS. This all resulted in the worst season of his career, and at 34, it's clear his best days are behind him.
Alex Verdugo is a player who is much more valuable in real life than in fantasy. His defense, intensity, and arm make him an All-Star caliber player, but he doesn't hit for enough power or steal enough bases to provide any significant fantasy value. Eddie Rosario is another player I wouldn't draft at this spot. In today's game, there are a million hitters you can get who can give you a cheap 20 home runs, and Rosario doesn't get on base enough, steal enough bases, hit for a high enough average, or play in a good enough offense to warrant anything more than a backup selection.
Tier Six
Two defense-first players lead the Tier 6 pack, as Ramon Laureano and Byron Buxton are both more valuable in real life than fantasy. Buxton is the riskier pick, as he has only played more than 100 games once in his career, but he provides more power and baserunning ability than Laureano. Even during his struggles last year, Laureano still managed to put together a .338 on-base percentage, and he is just one year removed from hitting .288 with 24 home runs and 13 steals.
Another player whose main value lies on defense is Victor Robles, but his offensive ability is far behind Laureano and Buxton. Robles doesn't hit for average or power, and while he can steal the occasional base, his sub .300 on-base percentage limits that skill.
For a player who actually provides value on offense, look at Ryan Mountcastle. The former top prospect excelled in his rookie season, hitting .333 with a 140 OPS+. 53 games are too small a sample size to make any grand judgments, and his batted ball rates don't quite back up the standard numbers, but Mountcastle is a solid bet to hit in the high .200s with 20-25 home runs.
At this point, we know who Joey Gallo is: He'll hit home runs, hit some more home runs, and provide literally nothing else. Not only does he not hit for average or steal bases, but his average and supporting cast are so weak that it hampers his ability to drive in runs despite his massive power.
Dominic Smith and Anthony Santander are two players looking to build on breakout 2020 campaigns. Smith is the player I like more going forward, as he's shown a more consistent ability to hit for average and get on base. He also hits the ball much harder than Santander. He was in the 66th percentile in exit velocity and 83rd percentile in hard-hit percentage, while Santander was just 45th and 38th respectively. This is not to say Santander is a bad player. He made a clear effort in 2020 to get the ball in the air, increasing his launch angle by almost 10 points, and it resulted in a massive spike in home run rate. He doesn't have much help in the lineup, but playing time is guaranteed and if you can get a guy with a .575 slugging percentage at this stage of the draft, you're not complaining.
Max Kepler is someone I like at this spot. He had a disappointing season last year, but his xBA was in line with his breakout 2019 season, where he hit 36 home runs and 98 RBI. With the amount of talent surrounding him in the Twins lineup, his floor is 30 home runs and 100 RBI, making one of the safest picks at this stage of the draft.
An absolute sleeper in Tier 6 in Kyle Lewis' Mariners teammate, Dylan Moore. There's not much to go one, but he's shown a clear ability to hit for power and steal bases at the big league level, the starter kit for a valuable fantasy player.
A player I don't like is Michael Brantley. He is only middle of the pack in terms of exit velocity and hard-hit percentage, making him extremely reliant on BABIP luck. He doesn't hit for power and he doesn't steal bases, and at 33, his best days are behind him. Grab him for the floor he provides in average and RBI but the upside isn't there.
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