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DFS Analyst Mark Wemken dissects his favorite WR vs CB match-ups to exploit for week 2 of the NFL season. These wide receivers should be tournament and cash game targets based on matchups.
Were you a bad enough dude to roster Phillip Dorsett against the Houston Texans last week? His smash game (at least for his price point) was a matchup-based play that was highlighted in the Week 1 version of this piece. It panned out extremely well. While Donte Moncrief didn't produce has planned, he did account for roughly 43 percent of his teams air-yards for Week 1. He is now $300 cheaper on DraftKings and most certainly is in play again. But enough about last week. Week 2 is officially upon us, and it's time for another data dive to rake in some daily fantasy cash.
Nothing is more important than match-up analyzation when it comes to fantasy football. Playing your teams’ best players on a regular basis is important, but picking apart the top match-ups on a week to week basis can win you a championship, or even better, some cold hard cash in DFS. Matchups for the wide receiver position aren’t always as black and white as they can be for other positions. Receivers need to be broken down even deeper by analyzing the potential cornerback matchup they’re going to draw. This is especially true in potential shadow coverage cases such as any time an X receiver plays against Patrick Peterson and the Arizona Cardinals. Some analytical data used here such as fantasy points allowed per route covered, and percentage of routes run on the left side, right side, and in the slot is courtesy of Pro Football Focus.
Now, here are the top WR vs CB match-ups for Week 2. Use these to set season-long lineups, as well as gain a competitive edge in the Daily Fantasy realm.
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WR/CB Matchups to Target
Antonio Brown vs. KC CB Steven Nelson
You don't even need a good matchup to roster Antonio Brown in any given week, but when he's in a spot where he's capable of completely breaking the slate, he's a stone-cold lock in all formats across DFS.
Despite gross and inconsistent weather and an injured quarterback, Brown still produced a 9-93-1 performance. Brown saw typical-Brown volume in this game as well, drawing a grand total of 16 targets.
Brown will be involved in a home matchup this week, where the entire team generally performs better. Brown averages nearly 25.5 fantasy points per game at Heinz Field since the start of 2014, compared to just 19.9 at home. On top of all of this, Le'Veon Bell is still nowhere to be found in Pittsburgh, meaning the insane Brown usage will undoubtedly continue.
We get it. Antonio Brown is good. But there's a kicker here, too. KC CB Steven Nelson will cover Brown this week, and he just surrendered seven catches for 103 receiving yards in week 1 against the Los Angeles Chargers. Both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams had their way with Nelson, putting Brown in a smash spot for week 2.
Pivot - Julio Jones
Julio Jones is priced similarly to Brown at $8400 and is in something of a smash spot himself. In his last four home games versus the Carolina Panthers, Jones has averaged nearly 26 fantasy points per outing, and that is with only two total touchdowns in those contests.
LAR WR Robert Woods vs. ARZ CB Jamar Taylor
Robert Woods was so class to a smash game in week 1 that those who rostered him are likely still sick over the outcome.
Woods led his team with a 27 percent target share and a whopping 49 percent of the teams air yards per AirYards.com. Despite the great usage, he hauled in just three of his nine looks. Woods was also thrown to on three deep routes; none of which connected. Woods' ability to gain separation has transferred over into the 2018 season, and he could be in an interesting spot to attack in DFS after we rattle off some game theory.
It's entirely possible that Brandin Cooks draws a shadow from ARZ CB Patrick Peterson, leaving Jamar Taylor to handle Woods on his own. Taylor was only thrown at three times in week 1, but on those targets he allowed a perfect catch rate and a passer rating of 102.8. If Woods can connect with QB Jared Goff deep this week, he will smash value from a fantasy points per dollar perspective. He's only $5900 on DraftKings this week.
Nelson Agholor vs. TB CB M.J. Stewart
While Nelson Agholor didn't explode in week 1 with Alshon Jeffery out of the lineup, the usage was most certainly encouraging. Agholor was targeted 10 times, and he ran nearly 53 percent of his routes out of the slot. The yardage was pedestrian, at best, but I refuse to turn my nose up at eight catches and double-digit looks.
Up next for Agholor is a week 2 matchup against backup slot corner M.J. Stewart, who will be filling in for the injured Vernon Hargreaves in the Tampa Bay secondary.
Agholor is a cash game lock because of the volume and matchup, but should be counted on in more than one or two tournament lineups. He's priced fairly at $6100, but he is not exactly a value, either.
Pivot - Mike Wallace
There might be no better tournament pivot for week 2 than Mike Wallace. He is sub-$4000 on DraftKings, but he is in an interesting spot against TB, who just got smoked by ageless deep-threat Ted Ginn Jr. Wallace accounted for 32 percent of his team's air yards in week 1.
Golden Tate vs. SF CB K'Waun Williams
First and foremost, I love the idea of rostering Golden Tate as a hybrid play mainly because he should go under-owned on this slate. The WR position is absolutely loaded with value and upside in week 2, and it'll be easy to forget about the disrespectfully-priced Tate in this matchup against the San Francisco 49ers. Tate will cost just $6500 to play this week, just six days after a 21-point, 15-target outing against the New York Jets.
What's intriguing about this matchup is, the 49ers secondary looks to be in decent shape on the outside. LCB Richard Sherman allowed just one catch for 18 yards on three targets against Stefon Diggs, while teammate Ahkello Witherspoon gave up a single catch for 22 yards. while that one catch went for a touchdown, it's still impressive that the duo only allowed a grand total of two receptions when lined up on the outside.
This coverage could be the reason a hefty chunk of Minnesota's targets were funneled to Adam Thielen out of the slot. SF SCB K'Waun Williams gave up the ninth-most receiving yards per route in coverage, as well as a passer rating of 103.7 when thrown at in Week 1. Tate is a cash-game lock, but he also possesses the volume and touchdown upside to make for an interesting tournament play in Week 2.
