April 18, 2025

Brady’s UFL betting picks for Week 4. His best bets, and picks for every spread and O/U for Week 4 of 2025 in the United Football League (UFL).

I went 4-5 last week, and the parlay missed by one leg again, but the bright side was the most entertaining and quality week of UFL football so far in 2025. This week, we have already seen key signings, including Taco Charlton with Arlington. Wade Phillips has taken a leave of absence, leaving Payton Pardee in charge, and Ken Whisenhunt has stepped away from Memphis for good. On the bright side, the TV ratings appeared to be good.

For Memphis, this is some sulky news. For San Antonio, I think it is actually a great thing, considering the improvement last week already with Pardee as OC. Part of that game was flukey, but what UFL game isn't? As I discussed with Colby Dant this week, the biggest narrative thus far has been all of the highly questionable snaps being had by guys who are clearly the inferior quarterbacks on rosters. Now, three weeks in, teams are starting to get banged up.

Last week was a significant reshuffling of the power rankings, but given the way this season is trending, I expect that to happen far more frequently than usual for a Spring Football season. Who would have thought at this point that D.C. would come out looking most dominant with their coaching departures? I think we can at least say that the USFL championship is all but set--and Michigan seems like a decent future in light of Birmingham's struggles. Anyway--let's talk about Week 4.

Week 4 Power Rankings

1. D.C. Defenders--the lone remaining undefeated team, coming off the best single win of the season.
2. St. Louis Battlehawks--showed they have plenty of points needing improvement in the 12-point home loss to their conference rivals.
3. Birmingham Stallions--that one-point win was way too close to going the other way. They find ways to win, but the offense has been concerning.
4. Arlington Renegades--took a heartbreaker of a loss last week and now need to pull a slight upset to stay above .500.
5. Michigan Panthers--this was a squeaker, but San Antonio looked much improved. The Panthers improve to 2-1, and for the love of god, play Bryce Perkins exclusively.
6. San Antonio Brahmas--still winless, but that was a way better showing under the new offensive regime. They were very close to at least forcing Michigan to OT.
7. Houston Roughnecks--a one-point road win. Nolan Henderson should be the man. My apologies for doubting you, Houston.
8. Memphis Showboats--shameful. Shameful, shameful, shameful, shameful, shameful. SHAMEFUL.

Week 4 Picks

Memphis Showboats at Michigan Panthers (Friday, April 18th, at 8 p.m. ET)

Panthers (-7.5), -410 ML, O/U 36.5

Michigan's wins have been against some not-so-good opponents — including the Showboats — but I can't imagine a worse spot to be in for Memphis. Your coach comes back and leaves again, you just took a one-point home loss to the (apparently) second-worst team in the league, and E.J. Perry is still starting at quarterback. Just as Danny Etling shouldn't have gotten any time over Perkins, Troy Williams gives Memphis a much better chance to win.

Perkins played excellently in last week's 26-23 win over San Antonio, winning Offensive Player of the Week. Jaden Shirden had a breakout performance in the backfield, the receiving core looked just fine without Marcus Simms, and Devin Ross won Special Teams Player of the Week. Etling is out, which means he can't come in. Even if Perkins loses some snaps, I love Rocky Lombardi. I see a final score of 21-10 to 26-13, so lay with the Panthers and slightly lean under.

St. Louis Battlehawks at Arlington Renegades (Saturday, April 19th, at 12:30 p.m. ET)

Battlehawks (-1.5), -135 ML, O/U 39.5

Last week was quite a disappointment for both teams in different ways. Who wants the bounce-back more? The Battlehawks got absolutely manhandled by D.C. last week--it is surprising they managed the 15 points. Manny Wilkins was the only one able to get off any ground yardage, and his passing inefficiency rendered that void. The Renegades were a crazy call away from beating Birmingham. Their offense didn't operate half bad, and the defense held the Stallions in check for most of the game.

I think St. Louis is going to have problems with the defensive front of Arlington — the Renegades and Defenders are similar in many ways —and the Battlehawks will be playing this week without their large home crowd. I predict a similar outcome to last week for St. Louis to a lesser degree--if Luis Perez does what he did last week to this Battlehawks secondary, the Renegades might not have to worry about their red zone woes of Week 3. I see a final score range of 18-17 to 25-20. Take the Renegades on the points, money line, and a slight lean over.

Birmingham Stallions at Houston Roughnecks (Saturday, April 19th, at 7 p.m. ET)

Stallions (-7.5), -395 ML, O/U 36.5

Matt Corral, as usual, looked capable of big moments in Week 3 but was an inefficient passer--he needs to be quicker to run--Birmingham's rushing game was awful last week against Arlington. I trust Skip Holtz to continue to make this team better, but Ricky Person Jr. is out this week, so that is yet another adjustment that needs to be made. Houston got their first win last week, 18-17 over Memphis--Henderson looked really solid in his time on the field, and ZaQuandre White produced 78 total yards.

This is a tough spread to call--of all things, Birmingham struggled to score against everyone but Michigan, but I do not think the bright points of Houston's Week 3 outing will be nearly as bright against the Stallions' defense. Houston is averaging 11 points per game, even with 18 last week, and I think that is way closer to where they will be. I see the final score range in this game of 17-7 to 24-11, so lay the points with Birmingham and favor the under.

San Antonio Brahmas at D.C. Defenders (Sunday, April 20th, at 5 p.m. ET)

Defenders (-7), -325 ML, O/U 38.5

Ty Scott being out for the foreseeable future with a broken arm is absolutely brutal. Even with Scott out, D.C. had a well-balanced slew of performances by pass-catchers, as Jordan Ta'amu managed 243 yards, three touchdowns, and two picks on just 17-37 passing. The Deon Jackson-Abram Smith backfield was workhorse-like, but most impressive, they stifled the Battlehawks' offense and allowed just 15 points on the road in St. Louis.

Pardee seems to understand that Anthony McFarland Jr. is a unique weapon for the UFL, so you really hope to see as many touches for him as possible here. Kellen Mond wasn't too bad last week overall--he already seemed more comfortable. Is this a letdown spot against another XFL foe for the Defenders after that big win? I think the Defenders should probably win at home, but I see it as a closer game--something like 18-13 to 24-16, so take the slight lean on the points with the Brahmas and the under.

Parlay of the Week

Panthers ML, Stallions ML, Defenders ML, Renegades ML: +319

It might be a bit ambitious going with four legs, but I think three favorites and a slight underdog are reasonable enough.

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