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Nick Mariano's Baller Ranks is a weekly fantasy baseball rankings list for the top 101 starting pitchers. He ranks and analyzes updated pitcher values for Week 6.
Rejoice, for we have reached May! Cry, for we've also lost Dustin May. The injuries are rolling over all of us, but we must breathe and try to be grateful that we get to play our little game within a game. Frustration is natural and you have to let yourself vent it out, but then we press forward with my 2021 Starting Pitcher Baller Ranks, where we take stock of my top 101 SPs moving forward.
You know the deal, as the ranks table below comes with this google sheet that accompanies the table and adds a smattering of stats. Do note that I leave off most injured players, and removing those injured players can give an illusion that others have risen despite mediocre performances.
On that sheet, you will find the usual 5x5 categories, strikeout and walk rates, BABIP, and CSW% for now. Do note that other stats and time windows will be added, but I don't want to clog it up with noise while we're this early in the young season. Let's just get onto my Top 101 SPs!
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Top 101 Starting Pitchers for Fantasy Baseball - Week 6
| (+/-) | Tier | Player | Rank | $ | EV | $PV | Trend | Notes |
| 0 | 1 | Jacob deGrom | 1 | 43.0 | 17.2 | 43.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 0 | 1 | Gerrit Cole | 2 | 39.0 | 19.1 | 39.0 | 0.0 ▬ | If you took any of these 3 in Tier 1 then you're happy |
| 0 | 1 | Shane Bieber | 3 | 38.0 | 10.4 | 38.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 0 | 2 | Trevor Bauer | 4 | 34.0 | 5.6 | 34.0 | 0.0 ▬ | You don't need to care about the antics, just the stats |
| 0 | 2 | Yu Darvish | 5 | 33.0 | 8.1 | 33.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 1 | 2 | Max Scherzer | 6 | 30.0 | 5.9 | 29.0 | 1.0 ▲ | |
| -1 | 2 | Aaron Nola | 7 | 29.0 | 9.8 | 30.0 | -1.0 ▼ | |
| 0 | 2 | Clayton Kershaw | 8 | 28.0 | 10.9 | 28.0 | 0.0 ▬ | No complaints from me if you stuck him up at No. 4 |
| 2 | 2 | Brandon Woodruff | 9 | 28.0 | 10.2 | 25.0 | 3.0 ▲ | |
| 2 | 2 | Tyler Glasnow | 10 | 26.0 | 13.2 | 24.0 | 2.0 ▲ | Tier 1-esque whiffs and ratios, can he keep working deep? |
| 2 | 2 | Lance Lynn | 11 | 25.0 | 6.8 | 24.0 | 1.0 ▲ | |
| -3 | 2 | Lucas Giolito | 12 | 24.0 | 2.6 | 28.0 | -4.0 ▼ | We know what the ceiling is, though that OF is trouble now |
| 1 | 2 | Walker Buehler | 13 | 24.0 | 6.4 | 22.0 | 2.0 ▲ | |
| 7 | 2 | Jack Flaherty | 14 | 22.0 | 5.9 | 16.5 | 5.5 ▲ | |
| 0 | 3 | Jose Berrios | 15 | 22.0 | 8.4 | 22.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 0 | 3 | Luis Castillo | 16 | 21.0 | 1.8 | 21.0 | 0.0 ▬ | One bad April doesn't have me jumping ship |
| 3 | 3 | Zack Wheeler | 17 | 21.0 | 7.2 | 19.0 | 2.0 ▲ | |
| 7 | 3 | Kevin Gausman | 18 | 19.0 | 6.5 | 14.0 | 5.0 ▲ | There's some luck in that BABIP but lots of earned success |
| 0 | 3 | Blake Snell | 19 | 19.0 | 3.2 | 19.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 2 | 3 | Dylan Bundy | 20 | 19.0 | 4.3 | 16.0 | 3.0 ▲ | |
| 3 | 3 | Zac Gallen | 21 | 17.0 | 4.6 | 14.0 | 3.0 ▲ | |
| -5 | 4 | Joe Musgrove | 22 | 16.0 | 7.8 | 21.0 | -5.0 ▼ | Some sputters but he's earned this; SD strong environment |
| 7 | 4 | Sandy Alcantara | 23 | 15.0 | 5.6 | 10.5 | 4.5 ▲ | |
| 11 | 4 | Trevor Rogers | 24 | 14.0 | 7.6 | 9.0 | 5.0 ▲ | Are you happy now? He's incredible, but it's still 1 month |
| 13 | 4 | Julio Urias | 25 | 14.0 | 8.4 | 9.0 | 5.0 ▲ | Southpaw is hitting the afterburners of late |
| 2 | 4 | Ian Anderson | 26 | 13.0 | 5.1 | 11.0 | 2.0 ▲ | |
| 14 | 4 | Lance McCullers Jr. | 27 | 12.0 | 3.7 | 8.5 | 3.5 ▲ | 3 BBs in 4-of-5 starts; season-high 9 Ks, 7 shutout IP on 4/30 |
| 3 | 4 | Marcus Stroman | 28 | 11.0 | 6.6 | 10.0 | 1.0 ▲ | |
| 3 | 4 | Tyler Mahle | 29 | 11.0 | 4.9 | 9.5 | 1.5 ▲ | |
| -7 | 5 | Zack Greinke | 30 | 10.5 | 3.6 | 15.0 | -4.5 ▼ | |
| 2 | 5 | Zach Eflin | 31 | 10.0 | 10.6 | 9.5 | 0.5 ▲ | |
| 2 | 5 | Eduardo Rodriguez | 32 | 9.5 | 3.3 | 9.5 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 7 | 5 | Charlie Morton | 33 | 9.5 | 4.8 | 8.5 | 1.0 ▲ | |
| -- | 5 | Max Fried | 34 | 9.5 | -1.0 | 0.0 | 9.5 ▲ | Returning from the IL on 5/5; laughable .513 BABIP |
| 4 | 5 | Sonny Gray | 35 | 9.0 | 1.3 | 8.5 | 0.5 ▲ | 11-K day at LAD, hopefully that signals the rust is leaving |
| 1 | 5 | Pablo Lopez | 36 | 9.0 | 6.6 | 9.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 5 | 5 | Aaron Civale | 37 | 9.0 | 3.0 | 8.0 | 1.0 ▲ | |
| 10 | 5 | John Means | 38 | 9.0 | 7.1 | 5.5 | 3.5 ▲ | Continues to succeed within the ALE, respect |
| 14 | 5 | Carlos Rodon | 39 | 8.5 | 7.3 | 4.0 | 4.5 ▲ | This is what we've been waiting for, that health needs to hold |
| 5 | 5 | Cristian Javier | 40 | 8.5 | 6.0 | 8.0 | 0.5 ▲ | 1 bad inning undid 5/2 start; believe in the rising talent |
| -15 | 5 | Kenta Maeda | 41 | 8.5 | -1.9 | 13.0 | -4.5 ▼ | |
| 2 | 6 | Freddy Peralta | 42 | 8.0 | 6.2 | 8.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 26 | 6 | Huascar Ynoa | 43 | 8.0 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 6.0 ▲ | Dominated CHC in rematch; whiffs and plus control. Mm-mm |
| 3 | 6 | Michael Pineda | 44 | 8.0 | 2.4 | 6.5 | 1.5 ▲ | 4 strong starts, 1 dud - gets TEX at home next |
| -2 | 6 | Zach Plesac | 45 | 8.0 | 3.1 | 8.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 27 | 6 | Corey Kluber | 46 | 8.0 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 6.5 ▲ | Crushed BAL & DET; is he back or do they stink? A little of both |
| 13 | 6 | Jose Urquidy | 47 | 6.5 | 4.8 | 3.5 | 3.0 ▲ | |
| 35 | 6 | Danny Duffy | 48 | 5.5 | 7.5 | 1.0 | 4.5 ▲ | |
| -20 | 7 | Kyle Hendricks | 49 | 5.0 | -5.5 | 11.0 | -6.0 ▼ | |
| 6 | 7 | Shohei Ohtani | 50 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 4.0 | 0.5 ▲ | Scratched from 5/3 start after HBP on elbow; monitor |
| 12 | 7 | Chris Bassitt | 51 | 4.5 | 3.9 | 2.5 | 2.0 ▲ | 3 straight QS with at least 8 K in each outing; coming alive |
| 16 | 7 | Jameson Taillon | 52 | 4.0 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 2.0 ▲ | Hasn't worked past 5 IP yet, seems to fade facing LU 2nd time |
| -1 | 7 | Sean Manaea | 53 | 4.0 | 4.9 | 4.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| -8 | 7 | Frankie Montas | 54 | 4.0 | -0.4 | 8.0 | -4.0 ▼ | |
| -5 | 7 | Nathan Eovaldi | 55 | 4.0 | 9.9 | 4.5 | -0.5 ▼ | |
| 6 | 7 | Andrew Heaney | 56 | 4.0 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 1.0 ▲ | |
| -- | 7 | Shane McClanahan | 57 | 4.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 4.0 ▲ | |
| 16 | 7 | JT Brubaker | 58 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 2.5 ▲ | That slider/sinker combo is looking sharp, PIT limits things |
| 5 | 7 | Brady Singer | 59 | 2.0 | 3.4 | 2.5 | -0.5 ▼ | |
| -6 | 8 | Triston McKenzie | 60 | 3.5 | -1.8 | 4.0 | -0.5 ▼ | Strikeouts are cool but overall command is inconsistent |
| 0 | 8 | German Marquez | 61 | 3.0 | 3.9 | 3.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 8 | 8 | Yusei Kikuchi | 62 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 1.5 | 1.5 ▲ | |
| 22 | 8 | Alex Wood | 63 | 2.5 | 4.9 | 1.0 | 1.5 ▲ | Can he walk out of Coors with similar ratios and Ks? |
| -- | 8 | Robbie Ray | 64 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 2.5 ▲ | |
| -10 | 8 | Jordan Montgomery | 65 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 4.0 | -1.5 ▼ | |
| -7 | 8 | Patrick Corbin | 66 | 2.0 | -3.8 | 2.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 20 | 8 | Adam Wainwright | 67 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 ▲ | 7 IP, 10 K on 4/20; CG, 8 K, 2 ER after that; crafty at 39 y.o. |
| -- | 8 | Daniel Lynch | 68 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 ▲ | We lose Junis to the 'pen, but Lynch is very exciting |
| -4 | 8 | Taijuan Walker | 69 | 2.0 | 4.9 | 2.5 | -0.5 ▼ | |
| -3 | 9 | Steven Matz | 70 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 ▼ | |
| 22 | 9 | Madison Bumgarner | 71 | 1.5 | 4.2 | 1.0 | 0.5 ▲ | |
| 10 | 9 | Adbert Alzolay | 72 | 1.5 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.5 ▲ | |
| -2 | 9 | Dallas Keuchel | 73 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 2 | 9 | Dylan Cease | 74 | 1.5 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.0 ▬ | Like Kluber, how excited can you get when crushing DET? |
| 9 | 9 | Kyle Gibson | 75 | 1.5 | 7.2 | 1.0 | 0.5 ▲ | |
| 4 | 9 | Griffin Canning | 76 | 1.5 | -0.6 | 1.5 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 14 | 9 | David Peterson | 77 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.5 ▲ | 3 of his last 4 starts have been solid, whiffs picking up |
| -- | 9 | Domingo German | 78 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.0 | 1.5 ▲ | |
| -- | 9 | Garrett Richards | 79 | 1.5 | 2.7 | 0.0 | 1.5 ▲ | |
| -- | 9 | Kwang-Hyun Kim | 80 | 1.5 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 1.5 ▲ | Showing great control despite late start to 2021 |
| -- | 9 | Carlos Martinez | 81 | 1.0 | 4.9 | 0.0 | 1.0 ▲ | You'll take the low K totals if he's commanding the zone |
| -- | 10 | Justin Dunn | 82 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 1.0 ▲ | |
| -4 | 10 | Anthony DeSclafani | 83 | 1.0 | 6.6 | 1.5 | -0.5 ▼ | |
| -- | 10 | Rich Hill | 84 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 1.0 ▲ | Last 2 starts have been clean; @OAK next is a +stream |
| 4 | 10 | J.A. Happ | 85 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.0 ▬ | I don't trust this, but veteran does get TEX at home next |
| 9 | 10 | Wade Miley | 86 | 1.0 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| -15 | 10 | Ryan Yarbrough | 87 | 1.0 | 5.0 | 1.5 | -0.5 ▼ | |
| -22 | 10 | Dane Dunning | 88 | 1.0 | 6.0 | 2.0 | -1.0 ▼ | |
| 5 | 10 | Cole Irvin | 89 | 1.0 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.0 ▬ | Great control, but I'm often scared of the contact yielded |
| -- | 10 | Nick Pivetta | 90 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 ▲ | |
| -- | 10 | Luis Garcia | 91 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 1.0 ▲ | |
| 5 | 10 | Mike Minor | 92 | 1.0 | -0.3 | 1.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| -16 | 10 | Jon Gray | 93 | 1.0 | 4.9 | 1.5 | -0.5 ▼ | 4.44 SIERA and Coors keeps me away |
| -6 | 10 | Casey Mize | 94 | 1.0 | -0.5 | 1.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 4 | 10 | Jake Arrieta | 95 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| -18 | 10 | Alex Cobb | 96 | 1.0 | 3.9 | 1.5 | -0.5 ▼ | |
| -- | 10 | Jose Urena | 97 | 1.0 | 6.3 | 0.0 | 1.0 ▲ | I don't like it, but the results are enough for AL-only's |
| -- | 10 | Justus Sheffield | 98 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 0.0 | 1.0 ▲ | Maddening with inconsistency |
| -- | 10 | Tyler Anderson | 99 | 1.0 | 4.2 | 0.0 | 1.0 ▲ | |
| -10 | 10 | Chris Flexen | 100 | 1.0 | 4.2 | 1.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 0 | 10 | Aaron Sanchez | 101 | 1.0 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
What about the injured players?
For context's sake, here is the range I'd throw most relevant injured pitchers that aren't dealing with known significant long-term injuries:
-Corbin Burnes, 12-15
-Carlos Carrasco, 18-20
-Hyun-Jin Ryu, 22-25
-Stephen Strasburg, 28-30
-Dinelson Lamet, 34-36
-Jesus Luzardo, 44-48
-Framber Valdez, 46-50
-Chris Paddack, 54-58
-Tony Gonsolin, 68-72
-Marco Gonzales, 76-80
Quick Notes on Movers
-After a sketchy six walks over his first 10 1/3 IP, Jack Flaherty has buckled down and issued a mere four free passes across his last four starts combined. He's won his last five outings with four quality starts in that span as well, as the 26/4 K/BB ratio really sticks as a healthy indicator of reliability. The NL Central helps, too.
-Kevin Gausman also rebounded from his own six walks within a two-start stretch by crushing the Marlins and Padres in his last two games. He walked only one in each of those and notched a season-high 11 strikeouts against Miami, which is what he'll need to help offset that .210 BABIP as it crawls back to normalcy.
-Lance McCullers Jr. went from a combined 13 2/3 IP in his first three outings to 13 IP in his last two, twirling a QS against the Halos and Rays in the process. Opponents have only mustered more than three hits against him once, but he lives dangerously by attacking the edges. This is evidenced by his track record and having multiple walks in each start thus far. However, you can get away with that when you throw an incredible amount of breaking and secondary pitches! Just note it makes the line between dominant and painful thinner.
-Julio Urías has a beautiful 2.82 FIP, 3.08 xFIP, and 3.08 SIERA underneath his 2.87 ERA, due in large part to cutting his usual 8% walk rate in half for 2021. He's done so while maintaining his swinging strikes and avoiding an uptick in homers, which is not a given by any means. That 78.1% first-strike rate shows him coming right at hitters and them not being able to execute. It's unclear how many innings they'll squeeze out of him, but with so many other pitchers injured, they may be conservative come summertime.
-Corey Kluber toyed with the Tigers with vintage-Kluber changeups and now we're left wondering how much of the stat line is the Klubot being "back" and how much is Baltimore and Detroit being subpar. As with most "A or B" questions, the answer lies somewhere in the middle. I'll be most interested in how he attacks more disciplined batters moving forward, but I remain encouraged by the lack of loud contact surrendered overall.
-Buy into Huascar Ynoa's slider that he feels comfortable throwing to left- and right-handed batters alike. His Savant page will show you that it's his primary pitch at 44.2% and that his low .163 batting average against isn't driven by four-leaf clovers. No, that paltry .196 xBA is backed by a wicked 41.7% whiff rate that pays the bottom line. As long as the heater can effectively be commanded and touch upper-90s, then I'm in.
-No critical "Fallers" here that haven't already been a theme in past weeks. Kyle Hendricks needs to get it together. I remain hopeful for Frankie Montas, but I understand cutting bait for hot streamers and injury fill-ins. Many of you have likely cut Patrick Corbin already. Triston McKenzie remains unable to consistently hit his spots. I'd still be holding these guys if you believed in them enough to draft, but I respect that needs are needs when it comes to the lower end of the roster.
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