RADIO
Week 8 is here, and fantasy managers are beginning to gear up for the stretch run. The outcomes of the next few weeks will make or break playoff hopes and dreams.
Teams on bye this week include Arizona, Houston, Jacksonville, and Washington. GMs will have to strategize replacements for stars such as Kyler Murray, DeAndre Hopkins, Deshaun Watson, James Robinson, and Terry McLaurin.
Luckily, navigating bye weeks and injury concerns is easy thanks to the excellent resources provided by our RotoBaller team. We keep you up to date with analysis on every fantasy football matchup and offer advice on weekly waiver wire pickups. As you look to plug your new additions into your lineup, it is equally important to analyze who they should be replacing. Fortunately, my top ten fantasy football busts for Week 8 can be found below. Good luck, RotoBallers!
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Ezekiel Elliott vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Things are not going swimmingly in Dallas these days. That sentiment applies to their highly paid running back as well. Ezekiel Elliott was the RB40 against the rival Football Team last week. An offense that very recently appeared unstoppable now strikes fear into no one. The offensive line is in shambles and there is a very real possibility that third-string rookie seventh-rounder Ben DiNucci will be steering the ship in division-rival Philadelphia this week.
The Eagles do not hand out fantasy points like Halloween candy to running backs, as they are tenth against the position and allow the second-lowest yards per carry in the NFL. Elliott desperately needs Andy Dalton on the field in order to avoid constantly facing stacked boxes. He will be the workhorse but will be afforded far fewer scoring opportunities.
The majority of Zeke-managers likely share the misfortune of not rostering a viable alternative but should be aware of the adjustment in expectations that is required. Elliott needs a touchdown to pay dividends this week and faces an uphill battle at finding one.
Matthew Stafford vs. Indianapolis Colts
Matthew Stafford has been disappointing thus far. After impressing as the fifth-highest scoring quarterback on a per-game basis last season, Stafford is the current QB22 in points per game. Stafford has only one top-twelve performance and was unable to exploit a mouth-watering matchup with the Falcons last week.
Only the Bears are tougher on fantasy quarterbacks than the Colts, who have not allowed a top-12 performance to a quarterback this season. The Colts have only given up multiple touchdown passes twice all season and have twice held opposing quarterbacks to zero passing scores. Stafford has thrown for more than 300 yards just once this year and it was thanks to Todd Gurley’s late-game mistake that provided the Lions with an additional drive. He has been held to only one touchdown pass in three of his six starts. Stafford’s floor is safe enough that he never completely burns managers, but his extremely limited ceiling in this matchup should keep him away from starting lineups.
Devin Singletary vs. New England Patriots
Devin Singletary is a talented running back and plays in a good offense. That should be a recipe for fantasy success. Unfortunately for Singletary and his fantasy investors alike, the current RB29 on the season and RB37 in points per game has not delivered as hoped. Part of the reason is that the Bills possess the 30th-ranked offensive line, according to Football Outsiders. Another reason is that Josh Allen vultures carries and goal-line touchdowns. There is also the issue of Zack Moss, who recently returned from injury and last week posted 72 total yards to Singletary’s 47, and on the same number of touches. The presence of both running backs limits the ceiling of the other and the real worry is that Moss’s superior performance earns him additional opportunity. Singletary’s snap count has decreased for five straight weeks and his split with Moss was nearly even last week.
The Patriots had been relatively stingy against running backs until the 49ers ran all over them last week. Prior to that, no running back had posted a top-twelve performance against New England. The Bills are struggling to score at the moment, having failed to surpass 18 points in a game since Week 4. While the combination of skillset and offense remains enticing, the true Singletary recipe is a shared backfield with a rushing quarterback behind a bad offensive line. That recipe belongs on the bench.
Mark Andrews vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
I know you can’t actually bench Mark Andrews, in all likelihood, but do be afraid of the Steelers’ defense this week. Pittsburgh is sixth against tight ends and shutdown Jonnu Smith to the tune of one catch for nine yards last week. That is notable, considering Smith is tied with Andrews in fantasy points this season. The only tight end to post a top-twelve finish against the Steelers is Noah Fant way back in Week 2. They have faced other big-name options such as Evan Engram, Zach Ertz, and Austin Hooper as well, yet have allowed only one receiving touchdown to the position. No tight end has surpassed 57 receiving yards versus the Steelers, just under Andrews’ season-high of 58.
Andrews has been extremely hit-or-miss this season, finishing as a top-three tight end in half of his games and a sub-30 option in the rest. This appears to be another floor game. Cross your fingers and hope for a touchdown against a defense that has only been beaten once.
DeVante Parker vs. Los Angeles Rams
Welcome to Tua-time. The big question for fantasy managers is how rookie first-round pick Tua Tagovailoa impacts the Dolphins’ offense. Ditto for those rostering the Dolphins’ number one receiver, DeVante Parker. Parker was averaging 6.7 targets per game with Fitzpatrick at the helm, but those targets fluctuated biweekly, as Parker did have three games of eight or more targets.
It is anyone’s guess as to how capable Tagovailoa is right out of the gates, but fellow rookies Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert have found success already. Beyond Tua’s capabilities is the question of who becomes his favorite weapon. Odds are that it is Parker, but athletic tight end Mike Gesicki serves as competition, as does Preston Williams.
As if figuring out the target quality and quantity wasn’t problematic enough, Parker also faces a matchup with Jalen Ramsey this week. The Rams are the second-toughest opponent for fantasy wide receivers. Stefon Diggs was the WR33 against the Rams, Terry McLaurin the WR69, and Allen Robinson the WR44. The only recent strong performance against the Rams was by Deebo Samuel who operated as a hybrid wide receiver/running back. It is possible that Tagovailoa is an instant star and that Parker’s fantasy stock is not set to crumble, but managers with viable alternatives would be wise to exercise patience in light of the matchup.
Daniel Jones vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Daniel Jones has been thoroughly disappointing relative to the breakout campaign that many predicted. The logic behind the theory checked out, as Jones’s rushing capability combined with the Giants’ respectable passing game weapons appeared to emulate a proven formula for fantasy success.
For those who dug deeper at draft time, the Giants’ opening slate of opponents featuring the Steelers, Bears, 49ers, and Rams was always severely worrisome. The official panic kicked in when Jones failed to perform against the sad Cowboys Defense and followed it up with another bad outing against Washington. Last week was the first glimmer of hope provided by Jones, and if not for an untimely and downright hilarious stumble, he would have had a much greater fantasy performance.
Unfortunately for the man with the difficult matchups, he gets the Buccaneers’ third-ranked unit against fantasy quarterbacks. Justin Herbert had been the only quarterback to post a top-twelve finish against the Buccaneers until Derek Carr finished as the QB12 last week. Jones heavily relies on his rushing ability to generate fantasy points and no quarterback has exceeded nineteen yards on the ground against Tampa Bay. The floor for Jones in this matchup was demonstrated by Aaron Rodgers’ QB27 performance in Week 6. That floor is too risky, and Jones has not shown enough to earn warrant the gamble.
J.K. Dobbins vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Mark Ingram faces the prospect of missing this week’s game, with consecutive missed practices coming off the bye. That has many excited for the unleashing of rookie running back J.K. Dobbins. That excitement should be curtailed, as Gus Edwards is set to play a larger role on early downs and near the goal-line. Neither running back will be a true workhorse and the Ravens’ running back group has averaged only 20.5 carries per game as a unit. Edwards has handled 39% of the running back carries compared to Dobbins’ 20%.
Splitting up such a limited workload will zap the potential of both rushers. Gus Edwards’ fourteen carries in Week 6 stand as a season-high for any Ravens’ running back. Mark Ingram managed two top-24 performances but did not finish higher than RB38 otherwise, including three performances of RB56 or lower. Gus Edwards’ RB24 finish in Week 6 was his first above RB39. If you divide Mark Ingram’s fantasy points in half and assign them to Dobbins and Edwards, it would not move the needle significantly. Nonetheless, both will be flex candidates in favorable matchups due to the potential for double-digit touches and a touchdown.
The Pittsburgh Steelers do not serve as a favorable matchup. Only the 49ers have been tougher on opposing running backs, with Miles Sanders being the sole running back to have finished in the top-twelve against Pittsburgh. Facing a defense that allows only 3.3 yards per carry does not bode well for running backs in a timeshare. Sit the rookie this week.
Tyler Higbee vs. Miami Dolphins
We’ve passed the halfway point of the fantasy regular season and Tyler Higbee ranks as the TE10 on the year. That ranking is misleading, however, as 50.6% of Higbee’s fantasy production has come in just one game. Outside of his explosion in Week 2, Higbee has received highs of four targets and three receptions, topped 40 receiving yards only once, and has failed to score in any game. Higbee has not finished above TE16 in his five scoreless appearances.
Higbee appeared in my bust column last week before being a late inactive due to a hand injury. At that time, I highlighted that Higbee had only out-targeted Gerald Everett 12-11 over their past four games together and that Everett had actually scored more fantasy points than Higbee. The gap in the number of routes run between the two tight ends is minimal, as this has turned into a true timeshare.
The Dolphins have been the second-stingiest defense to opposing tight ends. While they have not faced many dangerous options at the position, Miami did hold George Kittle to four receptions for 44 yards in Week 5. That actually represented the most receiving yardage allowed by Miami to the tight end position this year. When you factor in that the Dolphins have yet to allow a receiving touchdown to a tight end, it becomes clear that Higbee is a tremendous risk for managers this week.
Sterling Shepard vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sterling Shepard’s return from injury was a strong one, as he managed six receptions on eight targets for 59 receiving yards and a score. Shepard stood out as the best playmaker for Daniel Jones but still has to contend with Darius Slayton and Evan Engram for targets.
The Buccaneers have been tough on opposing wide receivers, ranking as the seventh-toughest matchup. Some notable fantasy finishes against the Buccaneers include Michael Thomas as the WR83, Keenan Allen as the WR41, and Davante Adams as the WR34. The only receiver to finish as a top-twelve option against Tampa Bay this season is Nelson Agholor, who did so last week. In doing so, Agholor became the only wide receiver to score a touchdown against Tampa Bay in the past three weeks. The Buccaneers have only given up more than 20 points twice all year and have not done so since Week 4, meaning the scoring potential will be limited for the Giants in this game.
Shepard’s target share is down this season, as it sits at 17.3% compared to last season’s 23.4%. He should still have a safe floor most weeks, as Golden Tate has seen his target percentage drop all the way to 14.5%. This is strictly a floor game for Shepard, however, who should be viewed as a low-end WR3 and benched wherever depth allows.
Joshua Kelley vs. Denver Broncos
Joshua Kelley has averaged 14.7 touches per game this season, meaning the volume is there to make him a viable flex option. The issue has been one of efficiency and scoring ability, as Kelley is averaging a dismal 3.09 yards per carry and has scored only one touchdown. Kelley has received thirteen carries in the red zone, which is the same number as Antonio Gibson, David Johnson, and James Robinson, yet each of those running backs has scored on at least three of those carries. Kelley has converted just one of eight carries inside the ten-yard line into a touchdown and has failed to score on any of his four carries inside the five-yard line. The Chargers’ offensive line is certainly not helping matters, as they sit as the 29th-ranked unit, according to Football Outsiders.
Kelley’s usage spiked to seventeen touches last week after not receiving more than twelve opportunities in his prior three games. This was likely the result of Justin Jackson being at less than 100%, as he was in danger of missing last week’s game. Jackson still touched the ball ten times after handling 20 touches in the Chargers’ previous game. Kelley had not received more than three targets in a game before catching five passes last week and is unlikely to repeat that if Jackson is more involved this time around. Jackson has caught at least five passes in his two latest performances.
The Broncos are the third-toughest matchup for opposing runners, allowing just 15.2 fantasy points per game to the position. In a split backfield, there is limited fantasy production to be had for either rusher this week. James Conner is the only running back to have finished in the top-twelve against Denver, and he did so back in Week 2. Running backs have combined to score only two total touchdowns against the Broncos, and the list of opponents includes Derrick Henry, Ronald Jones, and Clyde Edwards-Helaire, in addition to Conner. Keep Kelley on the sidelines this week, as his floor and ceiling are both spooky.
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