October 3, 2017

Thursday Night Football starts/sits and matchups analysis for Week 5 of the NFL season. Which Patriots and Buccaneers to start or sit for fantasy football lineups.

So much for a thrilling Bears-Packers rivalry game...

What I thought might be more than a blowout Thursday Night Football game between the Chicago Bears and Green Bay Packers ended up being a foregone conclusion by the end of the third quarter, with Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb, and Davante Adams each having caught a touchdown by that point in the contest. Jordan Howard managed to salvage what was a mediocre fantasy performance with a three-yard, garbage-time touchdown late in the fourth quarter, but there is certainly a glimmer of hope for Bears' fans with the news that rookie quarterback Mitchell Trubisky will start when the team faces the Minnesota Vikings.

Let me tell you, folks, we are getting a beautiful matchup in Week 5 that will undoubtedly rebound from the previous Thursday night dud when the New England Patriots head to Tampa Bay to take on the Buccaneers. Both teams feature porous secondaries and quarterbacks who love to throw the football, making for an action-filled shootout with high stakes for the makeup of their respective divisions.

New England Patriots @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Date and Start Time: Thursday, October 5 at 8:25 PM ET

Notable Injuries and Status:

• Rex Burkhead (RB, NE) - Ribs - Active
• Eric Rowe (CB, NE) - Groin - Inactive
• Kwon Alexander (LB, TB) - Hamstring - Inactive
• Lavonte David (LB, TB) - Ankle - Inactive
• T.J. Ward (S, TB) - Hip - Active

Offensive and Defensive Rankings (2017):

Must Starts

Top Performers That Have To Be In Your Lineup

Tom Brady (QB, NE)

As the most effective fantasy option on the 2-2 New England Patriots, Brady should never be found anywhere near your bench on any given week. He has never lost to Tampa Bay in his 18 NFL seasons and currently leads the NFL in passing yards per game (349.8). Add into the equation the bundle of weapons he has at his disposal to challenge the 31st-ranked Buccaneer pass defense and you get a recipe for a quarterback who can churn out copious amounts of fantasy points. Trust in Brady to help you win this week.

Rob Gronkowski (TE, NE)

Gronkowski is rebounding quite nicely from offseason back surgery, asserting himself as the No. 1 tight end in fantasy football with three back-to-back 80-plus yard receiving performances. With star linebackers Kwon Alexander and Lavonte David likely to miss time, he is a must-start as the Patriots' leader in overall targets who is a safe bet to be the first player quarterback Tom Brady looks to in the end-zone. Get ready to see a few 'Gronk spikes' on Thursday night.

Jameis Winston (QB, TB)

I was one of the bigger non-believers in Winston prior to September, citing to his problems with turnovers and inconsistent play as fantasy pitfalls for 2017. I'm still not so sure he is showing signs of a top-10 quarterback finish, but he is being gifted a truly golden matchup against a New England pass defense that gave up a combined 614 passing yards and five touchdowns over their last two games. Put simply, this is a great chance for Winston to follow up on his 26.48 point outing against the New York Giants and please fantasy owners once again.

Mike Evans (WR, TB)

It's a theme for this week that each team's starting quarterback and their No. 1 target will be featured as must-start options. Evans hasn't quite managed to return on his late first, early second round average draft position thus far into the regular season, receiving 32 looks from quarterback Jameis Winston through three regular season games and only managing to haul in 19 for a catch rate under 60-percent. That being said, a shootout with New England is exactly the medicine the doctor ordered to help propel Evans back into the conversation as a top-shelf option.

Must Sits

Players To Avoid Putting In Your Lineup

Mike Gillislee (RB, NE)

Although it might be tempting to start the leader in carries for a well-oiled New England Patriots offensive machine, the unpredictability of that backfield is heavily leaning toward a spell back-heavy game script against a sixth-ranked Buccaneers' run defense. Gillislee has found the end zone once since Week 1 and has yet to receive much volume in the passing game, making him an especially volatile touchdown-dependent option for this Thursday night tilt.

Other Notable Sits: Rex Burkhead/Dion Lewis (RBs, NE), O.J. Howard (TE, TB)

Solid Options/Sleepers

Which Players Will Have Solid Games and Which Could Surprise?

Solid Option: James White (RB, NE)

As one of the more pleasant surprises in fantasy drafts, White is currently tied for 13th in the league in receptions and has performed beyond expectations in lieu of the Julian Edelman injury. Now coming off of a 10-reception game against Carolina, his involvement in the offense is all but confirmed based on his dependability in the short-range passing game. White should be a mid-to-low RB2 in PPR and a solid flex option in standard formats against the Buccaneers on Thursday night.

Solid Options: Brandin Cooks / Chris Hogan (WRs, NE)

In a game that figures to be a shootout, it would be crazy not to start one of the top two recipients of wide receiver targets from quarterback Tom Brady. Cooks and Hogan have both clearly benefited from a 1st ranked Patriots passing offense, with both currently sitting in the top-five for standard scoring and garnering enough of a workload in PPR to have a safe floor. You can't go wrong placing either of these wide receivers in your starting lineup this week, though the only issue will be how the passing volume is distributed with Danny Amendola figuring to play a part in the offense as well.

Sleeper: Doug Martin (RB, TB)

Martin will make his return from a three-game suspension against a soft New England run defense, yet he has stated that he is "not sure" how many reps he will get and likely won't see an immediate workhorse role in his first week back. Meanwhile, fellow runner Jacquizz Rogers has just come off of an 83-rushing yard, 5.2 yards per carry game against the New York Giants' tough front-seven and shouldn't be completely phased out with Martin's return. 91.5 percent of rushing attempts against New England's defense have gone for positive yardage, so the upside of having "muscle hamster" in your lineup might be enough to start him. However, I'll still be a little more cautious about locking in until I see him get caught up to speed with game-time action.

Sleepers: Adam Humphries / DeSean Jackson (WRs, TB)

Humphries sits second only to Mike Evans for the most receptions on this Buccaneer's squad and has clearly found a high target-floor niche for himself in the offense. It might be too soon to call him a weekly starter, but he should return a great floor in PPR formats for those needing a spot start at the wide receiver position. The inconsistent connection between Jameis Winston and Jackson is highlighted by his 45-percent catch rate through four games this season, though there have been plenty of big plays left on the field due to improper ball placement and penalties. Still, it's undeniable that Jackson is firmly nestled into the deep-threat role in Tampa's offense and has better odds of pulling off a big week now than in any game he has had so far this season.

Other Notable Sleepers: Danny Amendola (WR, NE), Jacquizz Rodgers (RB, TB), Cameron Brate (TE, TB)

More Week 5 Lineup Prep