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It's your friendly neighborhood sports betting enthusiast, Thunder Dan, here and I'm back with more MLB bets! Whether you like game totals, sides, or player props, I have something in here for you and try to cover a little bit of everything!
Recently, I started my own free sports betting newsletter, and the good people here at RotoBaller are allowing me to share my picks and data with you here in this space! You can access the free substack here and sign up for daily emails in addition to viewing the picks daily here on the RotoBaller website.
In this article, I'll be providing my MLB favorite betting picks on Friday, July 15th, 2022. The odds on these bets vary from book to book and are constantly changing. I primarily use FanDuel and DraftKings sportsbooks, but I would strongly encourage you to shop for the best odds at whatever books you use daily. I would also advise checking back later in the day as I may add bets depending on odds changing or specific props becoming available after I first post.
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MLB Betting Picks: Strikeout Projections
I do my own strikeout projections for just about every pitcher, every day. I use both season-long data and the most recent 14-day rolling samples from pitchers and opposing hitters when calculating these projections and I also include some other helpful stats here that I look at while making my picks, including pitchers' SwStr%, BB%, etc... These are median projections that are based on the average length of start for each pitcher, so if you think a pitcher is going to pitch deeper or less deep than usual, adjust accordingly.
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MLB Betting Picks: Pitcher Prop Bets
It’s a pretty simple group today as I am targeting three bonafide strikeout artists who are in good form and have solid match-ups. All the odds here are on FD as DK is a bit slow on the draw today.
Brandon Woodruff o6.5 vs. SFG (-135 FD)
Woody has been spectacular in his three starts since returning from injury, striking out 27 over 17 innings with only 3 walks. Now, having said that it was Pittsburgh twice and Tampa, but still it’s great to see him look like his old self. The Giants are a pretty strikeout-prone team against righties, and we saw Burnes get them for 10 last night.
Robbie Ray o6.5 vs. TEX (-140 FD)
Ray has been downright impressive over the last month and a half. In fact, he’s allowed only one earned run or fewer in six straight starts. His strikeouts are up, too, which is what we are after here. Texas has been hitting the ball well lately, but they still strike out enough where I feel good about Robbie getting his 7.
Clayton Kershaw o6.5 vs. LAA (+122 FD)
I saved the best for last. This is such a smash play! I was blown away when I saw these odds because I really thought we’d either get him opening at o7.5 at these odds or at o6.5 around -150.
Nothing is a guarantee in life, but these are the kind of bets I get excited for because as you can see on the projections, I have Kershaw projected well over 8 today. And honestly, I feel like that’s even a bit conservative. The Angels are whiffing at incredible rates and it’s all the way up to 35% over the last 14 days against lefties. I already put my ladder bet in on FD and bet his alt K props all the way up to 10 (which is an awesome +1000). If he comes through for us, it’s going to be a very profitable night!
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MLB Betting Picks: Sides and Totals
MIL ML (-125 DK)
This should be another fun pitcher’ duel, but I have to give the Brewers the advantage here as Woody has been sharp and Alex Wood simply isn’t of the same caliber. The Brewers have the better bullpen, too, and the Giants are dealing with injuries to some key hitters in their lineup.
BAL/TB over 7.5 runs (-120 DK)
This total is really low for some reason and I can’t figure it out. Tyler Wells is a decent pitcher, but the Tampa bats have been warm. And Tampa is rolling Luis Patino for his first start of the season. Tampa’s bullpen behind Patino (who likely won’t pitch long) has been mediocre at best.
NYM/CHC under 9 runs (-105 DK)
I also was puzzled at this total, which came in a full run higher than my model. I had to check the weather in Wrigley to see if maybe there was a strong wind blowing out, but I’m not seeing that at all. We have two pretty decent, groundball pitchers in Walker and Stroman here, I think the pitching has the advantage for both teams, and therefore, we go under.
MLB Betting Picks: Betting Trends
I usually include this chart at least once a week in my newsletter, so that readers can see how every team has fared in specific situations this year. I like looking at trends, but I use them to support my data-driven picks, not to make picks from exclusively.
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I hope you find my data and picks helpful and profitable! Have a great weekend and thanks for checking out my picks and content here at RotoBaller!
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