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Jamie Steed looks at how the top pitchers in 2024 MLB drafts fared. In the second part, he looks back at starting pitchers drafted seventh to 12th at the position.
The 2024 fantasy baseball season is in the books. It seems like the perfect time to look back and reflect on the season: What went right and what went wrong. One of the biggest determinants will likely have been how the starting pitchers you drafted early performed throughout the year.
Our focus here is on the first 12 starting pitchers drafted in 2024, according to their Yahoo! average draft position (ADP). We'll examine the pitchers' performance and grade them based on their Yahoo! end-of-season ranking compared to their ADP. We'll also offer a 2025 outlook for each.
We're concluding here with the second group of SP1's, drafted from seventh to 12th at the position. Don't forget to follow RotoBaller on X to get notified when articles drop. The team will be bringing you all the preseason baseball stuff you need. Without further ado, let's get into this.
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Tyler Glasnow, Los Angeles Dodgers
ADP: 42.8
End of Season Ranking: 77
GP 22, IP 134, W-L 9-6, ERA 3.49, WHIP 0.95, K 168
Grade: B
Glasnow being traded to the Dodgers wasn't a huge surprise last offseason. Glasnow getting hurt was even less of a surprise. The fact his 134 innings were a career-high highlights the struggles Glasnow has had staying healthy throughout his time in the majors.
Before the season-ending elbow injury he suffered in August, Glasnow was very good. With some more luck, he would have had a better ERA, evidenced by his 2.68 xFIP and 2.90 SIERA. Despite making only 22 starts, Glasnow still ranked tied-37th overall in strikeouts.
The reason I've given a B-grade without Glasnow pitching a full season is partly down to expectations. If you drafted Glasnow thinking you'll get 180+ innings, you set yourself up for disappointment. In 2022, he totaled 120 IP which was a previous career-high.
That leads us nicely to next year's expectations. There was some concern that Glasnow would need surgery, leaving his availability for 2025 in doubt. Glasnow quashed those fears in late September but his comments earlier this month aren't overly optimistic.
#Dodgers Tyler Glasnow said he doesn’t know anything more about his recovery plan. Still not throwing. Will have re-imaging at some point. More definitive plan likely after that.
— Bill Plunkett (@billplunkettocr) October 4, 2024
Assuming Glasnow will be ready for Opening Day, he will likely be drafted as an SP1 again. If 2023 didn't put people off, 2024 won't either. The doubt around Glasnow's elbow will likely mean he's going later in early drafts. I'm not comfortable with Glasnow as an SP1 and would only take him as a late SP2.
Pablo Lopez, Minnesota Twins
ADP: 44.8
End of Season Ranking: 161
GP 32, IP 185 1/3, W-L 15-10, ERA 4.08, WHIP 1.19, K 198
Grade: C+
Lopez found himself in the SP1 conversation after back-to-back excellent seasons. On the face of it, he appeared to take a step back in 2024. Lopez had his highest ERA since 2019, his highest WHIP since 2020, and allowed a career-high 26 home runs.
Among the 58 qualified starters, Lopez's 13.8% HR/FB was the 12th highest. Hard contact was an issue for Lopez, as evidenced by his 8.2% Barrel% (39th percentile) and 37.5% HardHit% (61st percentile). Both contributed to his ERA being above 4.00.
With that being said, you may think Lopez deserves a lower grade. While he did have an elevated ERA, Lopez provided an elite number of strikeouts and wins. Only six pitchers had more wins and 11 had more total strikeouts. That was enough to give him a passing grade.
For 2025, Lopez won't be drafted as an SP1, but he could still provide that level of fantasy value. If you compare his numbers over the last three seasons, Lopez's 2024 wasn't too dissimilar to the previous two which made him an SP1.
| Season | IP | W-L | K% | BB% | ERA | WHIP | xFIP | SIERA | Barrel% |
| 2022 | 180.0 | 10-10 | 23.6% | 7.2% | 3.75 | 1.17 | 3.56 | 3.71 | 9.0% |
| 2023 | 194.0 | 11-8 | 29.2% | 6.0% | 3.66 | 1.15 | 3.28 | 3.37 | 6.3% |
| 2024 | 185.1 | 15-10 | 25.6% | 5.3% | 4.08 | 1.19 | 3.36 | 3.46 | 8.2% |
Lopez can still provide SP1 value and he will likely be drafted as a lower-end SP2. If you wait on pitching and Lopez is still available in the sixth round, I'd be jumping on that pick. Lopez is still only 28 years old and if things click, he can excel in wins and strikeouts while lowering his ERA and WHIP.
Zac Gallen, Arizona Diamondbacks
ADP: 45.6
End of Season Ranking: 182
GP 28, IP 148, W-L 14-6, ERA 3.65, WHIP 1.26, K 156
Grade: C-
Gallen's season got off to a good start. At the end of May, he had a 3.12 ERA (57 2/3IP) before a hamstring strain sidelined Gallen for four weeks. Following his return, Gallen had a 3.99 ERA in his 17 subsequent starts (90 IP). Even with a slightly disappointing ERA, one thing stands out.
Gallen only managed 148 innings in his 28 starts. He did have 12 quality starts but still only recorded an out in the seventh inning on three occasions. He never recorded an out in the eighth inning. Of the 73 pitchers to have started at least 28 games, only five threw fewer innings than Gallen.
In 20 of the 28 starts, Gallen threw 90+ pitches. He just wasn't efficient, as evidenced by his 1.26 WHIP. While it may not seem too lofty, of the 81 pitchers to reach 140 IP, 54 had a better WHIP. That held Gallen back from being an SP1 when healthy.
Gallen's 8.7% BB% ranked in the 39th percentile and was his highest since 2021 (when Gallen had a 4.30 ERA). Most of Gallen's other numbers were what you'd expect. His 25.1% K%, 3.62 xFIP, and 3.85 SIERA were all slightly worse than in 2023 and did all regress following the injury.
Gallen is another pitcher who will fall out of the SP1 range in 2025. And he might find himself as an SP3. That seems like it can provide some value, especially if he can cut the walks down to pre-2024 levels. Gallen has SP2 upside but is not someone I'd reach too far to draft.
George Kirby, Seattle Mariners
ADP: 47.1
End of Season Ranking: 73
GP 33, IP 191, W-L 14-11, ERA 3.53, WHIP 1.07, K 179
Grade - B+
Kirby is the second Mariners pitcher to feature after Luis Castillo was included in Part 1. Similarly to Castillo, Kirby was overshadowed by Logan Gilbert and Bryce Miller. However, he was still able to outperform Castillo and warrants a high grade. Below is the comparison between the quartet.
| Player | IP | W-L | ERA | WHIP | K | xFIP | SIERA | K% | BB% | Ranking |
| Gilbert | 208.2 | 9-12 | 3.23 | 0.89 | 220 | 3.11 | 3.19 | 27.4% | 4.6% | 24 |
| Miller | 180.1 | 12-8 | 2.94 | 0.98 | 171 | 3.85 | 3.80 | 24.3% | 6.4% | 36 |
| Kirby | 191.0 | 14-11 | 3.53 | 1.07 | 179 | 3.58 | 3.56 | 23.0% | 3.0% | 73 |
| Castillo | 175.1 | 11-12 | 3.64 | 1.17 | 175 | 3.82 | 3.79 | 24.3% | 6.5% | 165 |
Kirby's calling card is his control. His 3.0% BB% ranked in the 99th percentile. No qualified starter allowed fewer walks than Kirby (23) and he managed to increase his strikeout rate to the league average (23.0% K%).
With his xFIP and SIERA being almost identical to his ERA, there shouldn't be any concerns about regression in 2025. Kirby also made it back-to-back seasons with very similar numbers. He has been arguably the most consistent starting pitcher over the last two seasons.
That consistency will lead to Kirby being drafted as an SP1 in 2025. I said before the start of the 2024 season that I prefer Gilbert. That'll be the case in 2025 too. That doesn't mean I have concerns about Kirby. My only issue is I want my SP1 to have elite strikeout numbers. Kirby won't provide that.
If you take Kirby as your SP1, you will need to find more strikeouts as the draft goes on. Whilst still very possible, that is what will end up seeing Kirby drafted in the fourth or fifth round in a similar position to what we saw this year.
Max Fried, Atlanta Braves
ADP: 48.7
End of Season Ranking: 122
GP 29, IP 174 1/3, W-L 11-10, ERA 3.25, WHIP 1.16, K 166
Grade: B
Although Fried didn't have an outstanding season, he's still heading into free agency off the back of an impressive year. It feels like it went under the radar somewhat. After making only 14 starts in 2023, it was a solid bounceback campaign and he helped anchor a Braves rotation that lost their ace.
Among qualified starters, Fried ranked tied-29th in wins, 15th in ERA, tied-26th in WHIP, and tied-33rd in strikeouts. Again, nothing stands out but only 12 pitchers matched or bettered Fried's wins, ERA, WHIP, and Ks. Fried also ranked tied-21st in quality starts (16).
Fried didn't provide SP1 value, he certainly didn't harm your team in any way. And his level of consistency is why I awarded Fried a 'B'. If you went hitter-heavy first and managed to get Fried and an SP2 soon after, you probably had a good season. Fried certainly wasn't the reason why if you didn't.
Fried's fantasy value in 2025 will be partly down to where he signs. His postseason record might put off some suitors. Fried allowed five earned runs (2 IP) in his Wildcard Series outing and now has a 5.10 ERA in the postseason (67 IP).
If you draft Fried expecting a repeat of 2024, you shouldn't be disappointed. It's possible he falls into the SP3 range like Gallen and should have no problem providing value in that range. If Fried can make 30 starts, he should be able to provide SP2 value and likely will be available after round seven.
Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers
ADP: 53.1
End of Season Ranking: 6
GP 31, IP 192, W-L 18-4, ERA 2.39, WHIP 0.92, K 228
Grade: A*
It'll come as no surprise that Skubal gets the highest grade. He ended the season as the number-one-ranked pitcher and will more than likely win the AL Cy Young Award. While Statcast Profiles don't always tell the full story, Skubal's is pretty decisive.
Skubal's season ended in disappointment when he allowed a go-ahead grand slam by Lane Thomas in Game 5 of the ALDS. That should not detract from his amazing season. Among qualified starters, Skubal ranked in the top two for wins, ERA, WHIP, and Ks.
Skubal will be taken as the first or second pitcher in 2025 drafts. Paul Skenes is the only other starter that will be considered in the first round. After the seasons they've had, both would be fully justifiable first-round picks. Even with some slight regression, Skubal will still end up being an SP1 in 2025.
By taking him in the first round, you can go hitter-heavy in the subsequent rounds and wait until taking a second starter. Skubal's excellence will offset most other struggling pitchers on your roster too. That will allow you to take some more risks as the draft goes on.
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