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Is Junior Caminero a fantasy baseball waiver wire stash? Jon Becker discusses the fantasy baseball outlook for redraft leagues for the rest of the 2024 season.
Junior Caminero wasn't incredible in his first MLB action in 2023, hitting just .235/.278/.353 in 36 plate appearances, good for a wRC+ of 77. But considering he struck out just eight times and wasn't completely unplayable at age 20, the potential remains tantalizing for the consensus top-five prospect.
But, in a redraft league, should you be stashing him now in the hopes that there's enough time for him to come back up and make a major impact for the remainder of 2024?
Let's have a look at his fantasy potential for 2024 and whether or not he's worth stashing in anticipation.
How High Is Junior Caminero's Fantasy Potential?
In two words: insanely high. Caminero is one of the most highly regarded prospects in the entire league, and while he's not tearing up Triple-A (106 wRC+ entering play on Wednesday), he's done absolutely nothing to take the prospect shine off of himself, continuing to hit the absolute crap out of the ball on a regular basis:
Wanna see what Junior Caminero hitting a ball with an EV of 117 mph looks like? Here you go. pic.twitter.com/MH04hnaxzE
— Josh Norris 🐻 (@jnorris427) May 26, 2024
Grounders were the bugaboo for Caminero in his short MLB stint last year, with over 60% of his balls in play being pounded into the ground. But he's ironed that out in his first Triple-A stint, dropping his grounder rate back down to 47%, still higher than ideal but better than he had done in Double-A and closer to his High-A rate. His maximum exit velocity is bested only by Jhonkensy Noel amongst all hitters in Triple-A, and amongst those with at least 100 plate appearances at that level, his 90th-percentile EV is topped only by James Wood (h/t to Robert Orr for the data).
If he can lift the ball more — and really, he doesn't have to super frequently when he hits the ball that hard — he could put up Stantonian numbers with far fewer strikeouts, hitting 40+ homers a year and putting the ball in play more than often enough to put up high, exit-velocity driven BABIPs that can drive an average pushing .300. He obviously won't hit 40 MLB bombs this year whenever he's called up, but the Rays offense could absolutely use a jolt and Caminero has the highest ceiling in the entire organization, current Rays included.
When Might Junior Caminero Get A Major-League Opportunity?
I'd argue that it should be right now! Isaac Paredes is the only Ray carrying his weight on offense, and while it certainly doesn't help Caminero that Paredes plays the position that Junior's appeared at most this year, Caminero has also made three starts at second base, and the Rays have DH pretty wide open as well. The best course of action would be to call Caminero up as soon as possible and divvy up the playing time accordingly to keep everyone fresh and healthy, with Paredes, Brandon Lowe, and Caminero rotating between DH along with current designated hitters Harold Ramirez and Jonathan Aranda.
The Rays offense is always something of a playing time puzzle, but unlike in years past, their floor is pretty low right now. Their wRC+ is just 94, 24th in the majors entering play on Wednesday. It's not that hard to figure out how to get Caminero his playing time because he frankly wouldn't be displacing anyone undeserving of being displaced. The Rays' 3-0 loss to the A's on Tuesday won't make heads immediately roll, but the team is doing nothing more than treading water in a highly competitive division. Keeping one of the best players in the minors when this could be Tampa Bay's last hurrah before slashing payroll seems foolish, and I don't expect it to last that much longer.
*UPDATE* Junior Caminero has been placed on the minor-league injured list due to a Grade 2 left quadriceps strain and is expected to miss four to six weeks. Caminero had also missed two weeks in early April due to a left quad strain. Missing another month-plus extends his timeline into the summer. An optimist would hope he returns by early July and rakes, forcing a call-up toward the end of the month. How the Rays' offense fares between now and his return to action, as well as Tampa Bay's record, will also help dictate their plans with the top prospect.
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