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RotoBaller's Fantastic Four: Bold Predictions For the Second Half

What's up Rotoballers. With the All Star Break in the rear view mirror and the second half underway, we figured it was time to gather up four of the kookiest, albeit best writers we have and hear their bold predictions for the home stretch.

Our "Fantastic Four" is comprised of JB Branson (@RowdyRotoJB), Nick Mariano (@NMariano53), Max Petrie (@Max_Petrie) and yours truly, Bill Dubiel (@Roto_Dubs). The predictions range from the wildly absurd to the somewhat realistic, but you can bet they're all going to be bolder than a good taco seasoning. Tweet us with your thoughts!

Editor's Note: RotoBaller offers the best Premium MLB Subscription - only $1.99 per week. All the tools you need to help win your seasonal and daily leagues: Hitter & Pitcher Streamers, Matchup Ratings for every player, Under-the-Radar Surgers for AVG, HR, Ks, plus daily DFS Cheat Sheets, Lineup Picks, Expert Lineups, Stacks and Avoids. 

 

JB's Predictions

As I sit on the verge of a leave of absence from writing, I reflect graciously on the many memories while at RotoBaller, and leave you with one utmost important piece of life advice I once found in a book: H.A.G.S.- Stay rowdy, RotoBallers. Also, I'd like to put it out there that I am definitely the Jessica Alba of this super hero team. 

Justin Turner Finishes Among Top 10 Fantasy Third Basemen

We all know Turner is going to be better in the second round of 2016, but I'm here to say he will be better than you're thinking. He was projected to be around #15 in preseason fantasy 3B rankings, and currently sits at #25. His BABIP is way down from the previous two seasons, while his ISO has stayed the same and his Hard% is up five whole points. Bottom line, he is striking out less and hitting the ball harder than the last two seasons. Bee to the dubs, he hit eight HR in June. The ginger storm is coming.

Clayton Kershaw Does NOT Win the NL Cy Young Award

Say what? That's right, I'm still all in on my preseason Cy Young pick- Stephen Strasburg. Might I remind you that he has yet to lose a game (voters like the W) and has a higher K/9 than Kershaw, and isn't currently on the DL. I know Kershaw's projected to be back next week, but I never like betting on back problems to disappear completely. Also, remember the absolute path of destruction Stras went on during the second half last season (1.90 ERA, 92 K in 66.1 IP).

Cam Bedrosian Leads Angels in Saves in Second Half

Son of a World Series and Cy Young Award winner, little Bedrock is finally living up to the hype in 2016. He owns a stellar 1.09 ERA with a 9.82 K/9 through 33 innings. The two names ahead of him on the saves depth chart currently, Huston Street and Joe Smith, both have struggled mightily this season and could be targets come the trade deadline. Whether he takes the job by force, or by default, Bedrosian only needs eight saves down the stretch to bring truth to this prediction.

Aaron Nola is a Top 15 SP Rest of Season

Aaron Nola's fantasy numbers are laughable right now. His 4.69 ERA is severely inflated due to a .331 BABIP and an absurdly low 60.5 LOB% as he sits outside the top 50 SP in standard leagues. This would be why his xFIP is still a sexy 2.97. Only three qualified starters in the MLB induced a GB% higher than 50% while striking out more than one batter per inning over the first half of the season: Jake Arrieta, Noah Syndergaard, and... Aaron Nola. Not to mention Nola has also allowed the ninth lowest Hard% among starters (26.6%). Earning wins in Philly is always difficult as they rank second to last in runs scored this season, but for what it's worth, in June they ranked 21st. Baby steps.

Yoan Moncada and Andrew Benintendi are Both in Starting Lineup for Boston Red Sox Playoffs Run

You know I had to get one Red Sox piece of goodness in here. GM Dave Dombrowski has already been bragging this season about his past success in promoting prospects straight to the Bigs from AA, and third base and left field have been two areas of "weakness" for the best offense in the league. Besides winning the MVP of the MLB Futures Game, Moncada has hit .320 with five HR and seven SB through only 19 games at AA after hitting .307 with 36 SB at A+. Benintendi also destroyed the A+ league and has hit six HR and stolen six bases through 50 games at AA while only striking out at a 12.9% rate. I have little doubt the two stars will be up with the Sox when rosters expand in September, and believe they will provide such a spark that they will remain with the 25 man crew for the postseason, sending Brock Holt and Travis Shaw to the bench.

 

Nick Mariano (Rivera) Predictions

I'll never complain when someone gives me the Mariano Rivera nickname, in fact I'm going to write these in with "Enter Sandman" playing.

Anthony Rendon has a monster second half.

His nine homers and .252 average from the first half really don't do his batted-ball profile justice, as his 40.9% hard-hit rate is a career-high mark. Not only that, but in the last 30 days his 50.8% hard-hit rate is second-highest in the Major Leagues. It isn't as though he's failing to make contact as his 20.1 K% has a low 6% swinging-strike rate behind it (5.3% last season, 5.2% in 2014). The numbers are going to roll in here!

Justin Upton has the biggest bounce--haha, I can't do it. He's still going to struggle.

I want to believe so badly, but he's only batting .225 in his last 19 games with the same elevated soft-contact rate that sits over 20%. No bueno.

Tyler Anderson is a Top-35 SP RoS.

Anderson has been dealt some poor luck to be 1-3 through his first six starts, but he has a 3.03 ERA, 3.35 FIP, 2.97 xFIP and 3.21 SIERA that is primarily fueled by a solid 8.07 K/9, a very low 1.51 BB/9, and a very healthy 59.8% ground-ball rate. He also has the third-best soft-contact rate in the last 30 days at 26.4%. I know, that's a lot of numbers kind of just being thrown at the wall here, but even with a little expected regression and an outside shot at an innings wall (he didn't pitch in 2015, at 66 1/3 innings so far), he looks goooood.

Todd Frazier finishes the season with a .240 BABIP. 

This is a wild one considering the mark sits at .204 through the first 3 1/2 months of the season. I know he's hitting more pop ups than before, I know homers don't count towards BABIP, and I know his strikeouts are up a few percentage points, but this is absurd. A .204 BABIP is extremely difficult to sustain, and Frazier's last 20 games have seen him record a .286 BABIP in that same span (.270 BA). It won't be like this for long, that average will rise alongside the a power stroke that won't disappear as it did in last season.

Cole Hamels isn't even a top-50 SP RoS.

Hamels has a 9-2 record to go with a 3.21 ERA and 109 Ks in 112 innings, that's pretty darn snappy. Okay, yeah his 1.33 WHIP is a bit gross but those other numbers are very strong. Walks and homers are up, batters are pulling the ball off of him at a career-worst 46.8% clip (38.3% last season), but his career-high 83.2% strand rate (75.3% last season) is simply bailing him out. Red alert y'all. I'm expecting a 4.50 ERA from here on out if things don't change.

 

Mad Max Predictions

Wrong movie, but it's actually way better than the crap Fox has put out each time for the F4. 

Bryce Harper wins NL MVP

Before the season this would not be considered a bold proclamation. But when you look at Harper's stat line (.253, 19 HR, 50 RBI, 14 SB, 127 wRC+) you realize fantasy owners have gotten a good, not great, return on their investment. Have no though, Harper will mash in the second half. He posted a pedestrian .250 BABIP in the first half, his worst in any season, but is still posting a .879 OPS. Look for Harper to put the Nationals on his back and retake the NL East from New York.

Matt Shoemaker finishes in the top 5 for AL Cy Young

Remember when Shoemaker had a brutal start to 2016 and every fantasy owner bailed? How quick times change. Especially when you learn to control your pitches. His BB/9 (1.87) is on par with his dominant 2014 campaign, but now he's getting the punchouts too. The Angels lack of run support may cause Shoemaker to not grab the necessary wins to garner Cy Young attention, but his arsenal is among the best in baseball right now and will continue to excel in the second half.

Mauricio Cabrera leads the Braves in saves for the second half

Who? Cabrera was called up to Atlanta in May and has been dealing gas ever since. His fastball averages 100 MPH and more importantly he's limited the free passes, something that was a crutch for him in the minors. With Arodys Vizcaino on the shelf and Jim Johnson on the trade block, Cabrera makes for a sneaky candidate for saves.

Yu Darvish finishes as a top 30 SP

Another pick that sounds easy in March, but not when you factor in Darvish's trip back to the DL in June. He returned for his second half debut versus the Cubs and was electric but not efficient (4.1 IP, 9 K). Darvish has the arsenal to fool hitters on a consistent basis and the Rangers will need him to perform if they wish to maintain their AL West lead (plus we all know Colby Lewis is due for regression).

 

Bill Dubs Predictions

In the words of the immortal Dy-lan (and the Human Torch)..."You want some of this hot fire?"

D.J. LeMahieu Wins the Tony Gwynn Award (NL Batting Title)

This one isn't a huge stretch at the moment, considering LeMahieu is currently behind only Daniel Murphy for the batting title. The thing here is that I believe this isn't just a solid half--this is LeMahieu breaking out into one of the best contact hitters in the game. My dude is currently rocking the highest hard-hit percentage of his career by far (35.2% vs. 28.1%) and has a batted ball spray pattern that indicates sustainability (41.5% to center, 35.2% oppo). I can already hear the Coors Field truthers trying to bring him down, and let me tell you...yeah, Coors probably is helping. He's hitting .380 at home and .287 on the road--but that's not what this article is about, is it?

Julio Teheran Finishes the Season With a WHIP under 1.00

In his first turn out of the All Star Break, Teheran silenced the aforementioned LeMahieu and the rest of the mighty Rockies offense with seven shutout innings, allowing just three hits and one walk. He seems to have figured everything out this year, as his K/9 is up from the previous two seasons, his BB/9 is the lowest it's ever been in his career, and he's currently sitting on a 2.96 ERA and 0.97 WHIP. What makes this prediction so bold? Teheran is also sitting on a 3.90 FIP and stunning .235 BABIP. Shoot, this one might be crazy. Oh well, the blurb is written. Keep the ball down, Julio, make daddy look brilliant!

Max Kepler Finishes With 25+ Homers 

Uhh...uhh...something about fury road! This Max is most definitely mad, and he's taking it out on baseballs. Kepler has already hit six bombs in July (17th, as I write this) and is showing no signs of slowing down. Again, what makes this so bold? The German native has never been a prolific power hitter at any level of professional ball; he hit just nine homers in 482 AA at bats in 2015. I say he keeps on clubbing with that Justin Morneau-type swing of his and gets to 25 by the end of the season. Interesting factoid to...win a bar bet on? Before joining the Twins organization, Kepler played for Buchbinder Legionäre Regensburg of the German Bundesliga. Look at how smart we are now, friends.

Tanner Roark Wins 18 Games

I'll start this by saying #KillTheWin. It's the dumbest statistic in professional sports and I'll fight anyone who says otherwise (saves is a close second). Since Rob Manfred hasn't answered any of my three dozen or so angry letters demanding its eradication, I imagine we'll still have Tanner Roark's total at the end of the season--and it'll be 18! Roark has been dominant for most of the season, and there's no evidence to suggest its unsustainable. He has a .294 BABIP, 3.21 FIP, 76.0% strand rate, 25.5% soft contact...and the Nationals are going to win games. I say Roark turns in a second half similar to his first and nails down 18 victories.

Andrew Miller Finishes the Year With 25 Saves

Psssh, no I didn't include a Yankee in this article just so I could have a platform to rant about the Yankees. Brian Cashman hasn't gotten back to me regarding my demands that the Yankees sell at the deadline either. These baseball execs won't give you the time of day, I tell ya.

Whether Miller's doing it for the Yankees or for a legitimate contender, he will save at least 18 games in the second half (he has seven saves now). He is hands-down one of the three best relievers in baseball, and to be honest I trust him more than just about anyone to get three outs when you need them--thanks in large part to his 15.79 K/9. Only Edwin Diaz and Miller's teammate Dellin Betances have a higher mark, and neither of the two of them are close to matching Miller's 0.71 WHIP and 1.37 ERA. Right now Miller makes a ton of sense for the Nationals and Rangers, and if Miller gets on either squad he should be afforded tons of opportunities. Unless for some reason the Nats leave Papelbon as the closer...

*Happy Gilmore voice* "...damn it, I hate that Jonathan Papelbon."

 

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