August 30, 2016

Ben Ruppert analyzes the 4th through 6th rounds from the recent Rotoballer Writers Dynasty Football inaugural draft.

Earlier this month, 12 RotoBaller writers came together to do a live dynasty league startup on the internet.

This article is the third in a series of articles on RotoBaller that will analyze the results of the draft to give readers a look into current dynasty values, and discuss the best and worst values in the draft. You can check out the rounds 2-3 analysis here.

For full draft results, click here.

Editor's Note: Purchase a full season NFL Premium Pass (including Draft Kit + DFS Premium), and also get MLB Premium + DFS for free through October. Premium DFS lineup picks, expert lineups, tools and more - seven days a week. You can see screenshots of our NFL Premium and MLB Premium and DFS tools. What are you waiting for?

Dynasty Draft Recap - Rounds 4-6

Best Pick- C.J. Anderson, 6.02 Overall (@BalesSJustin)

C.J. Anderson finished 2014 on a high note, and became a late-first, early-second round pick in drafts last season. He then promptly burned anyone who took him that high, struggling mightily through the first six games. However, in the last 10 games he averaged 5.9 yards per rush, boosting his ADP up to the third round. Only a lack of usage stopped him from putting up higher yardage totals. Still only 25, Anderson has a high ceiling if he can reach his potential we’ve seen him tap on a more consistent basis.

Worst Pick- DeMarco Murray, 5.01 Overall (@Jager_Bombs9)

DeMarco Murray enters this season at age 28, coming off of his worst season as a pro. He was traded to the Tennessee Titans in the offseason, who are a run first offense. However, they boast one of the worst rated offensive lines coming into the season according to Pro Football Focus, and the Titans drafted Derrick Henry in the second round of the draft, and are intent on getting him touches as well. If Murray looks as worn down as he did last year after his 392-touch season, his stock will fall mightily.

Riskiest Pick- Dorial Green-Beckham, 6.05 Overall (@NPowellFF)

Dorial Green-Beckham fell out of favor with the Tennessee Titans after they spent a second round pick on him in 2015. The Titans cited his inconsistency, character issues, and personal drive as reasons for the trade to the Philadelphia Eagles. His fantasy life got jump-started with the move, but he still carries all of those risks coming into 2016. His physical tools are undeniable, and if he can turn things around has a chance to push Nelson Agholor and Reuben Randle for a spot on the field behind Jordan Matthews.  However, he was unable to succeed amongst an equally mediocre group of receivers in Tennessee. The jury is still out on DGB.

Biggest Upside Pick- Derrick Henry, 6.06 Overall (@thedominatordfs)

As seen above, I am not too high on the prospects of DeMarco Murray this season. The Titans drafted Derrick Henry in the second round of this year’s draft as the RB of the future, and he has the imposing size (6’3”, 238 lbs.) and speed (4.54 40-time) to carry the load. Murray enters this season as the starter, but if he falters the way he did in Philly they will have a much shorter leash for him. Henry has looked good in camp, and in a run first offense would have high value if he can really chip into Murray’s workload or eventually take the starting job all together.

General Analysis

In Rounds four through six, we really saw youth start to take precedent over older, yet more established fantasy assets. We also saw a chunk of quarterbacks go after Cam Newton went in the third round. In all, there were 19 wide receivers and 12 running backs taken as people load up on the most important positions. Three quarterbacks and two tight ends were also taken in these rounds.

The youth movement began in the fourth where Laquon Treadwell and Corey Coleman were taken, having never played a regular season game yet. They were drafted ahead of established, yet still young, receivers like Michael Floyd and John Brown, who are both only 26-years old. Treadwell and Coleman both have high upside, but neither is on a team with a highly efficient passing offense meaning their values are capped this season. Josh Doctson, Sterling Shepard, Michael Thomas, and Dorial Green-Beckham also went in these rounds, and all will likely need a year or two to develop. Some are riskier selections than others. Julian Edelman (4.11), Eric Decker (6.03), and Larry Fitzgerald (6.04) all saw their stock fall to teams in more of a win now mode.

Most of the running backs taken in this round were of the older variety, including Jamaal Charles, Matt Forte, and LeSean McCoy. All were had at good values, due to the amount of reaches on younger talent. Two younger picks I liked in these rounds were Derrick Henry and C.J. Anderson. Henry is a big quick back, who only has an aging DeMarco Murray to go through to be a starter. Anderson I was surprised to see fall to 6.02 given his age (25) and the flashes of solid play he’s shown us over the past year and a half. He has plenty of potential in the Broncos offense.

Andrew Luck, Russell Wilson, and Aaron Rodgers all went in the fourth and fifth rounds of the draft. I normally would advise on waiting to draft a quarterback, but at 5.10, even I couldn’t pass up taking Russell Wilson, who has shown he can do it all and take on an increased passing load. What was a little surprising was that Aaron Rodgers was taken first of these three. In redraft leagues Rodgers is the highest rated, but he is five years older than Wilson and Luck, who are 27 and 26 respectively. All of them are great options on solid offensive teams, and even at 32 Rodgers still have 5 or so years of great football left in him. You can’t go wrong with any of these three.

Overall, these rounds began to define the teams who were taking youth and stockpiling for the future versus the teams willing to take the veterans and go for the next 1-3 years.  Of the six rookies taken in these rounds, five were receivers compared to one running back. Receivers dominated these rounds which made sense, given this being a PPR draft as well as they safety of the position. @Frankie_Soler took three players with an average age of 31, but other than that nothing out of the ordinary happened during these rounds.

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