PrizePicks PGA DFS Prop Picks - Over/Under Props for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Round 1)

Welcome to our PrizePicks PGA DFS prop picks for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Round 1). The 2024 PGA Tour season is already in full swing, and to celebrate, PrizePicks has an extensive selection of PGA props to take advantage of! PrizePicks is a great DFS props site where you can choose to select plays in terms of fantasy points or singular stats. The goal is to build a 2-player, 3-player, 4-player, or 5-player entry and then select whether or not you want to play for the power play or the flex play. On the power play, you will need to be correct on each of your selections to win, and on the flex play, you will have a little more wiggle room for a chance to win some money back.

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This week, we're at Pebble Beach for the 2024 AT&T Pro-Am! After spending years as the black sheep of the West Coast Swing, the Greatest Meeting of Land and Sea in American golf has finally been awarded Signature Status on the PGA Tour. The $20 million prize pool has attracted 27 of the top 30 ranked players in the world, and the change down to a two-course rotation compared to the usual three will shine an even greater light on the iconic links of Pebble Beach. I and the entire Rotoballer PGA staff have put out 1,000s of words on the course, key stats, and field this week, so this article won't be focused on the minutiae of projecting outright winners or DFS pivot plays. Instead, I'll be solely focused on a few money-making opportunities I've found in PrizePicks' unique markets to help you build your bankroll as the PGA Tour season gets into full swing! Today's plays are specifically for round one on Thursday, February 1.

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Rickie Fowler MORE than 71.5 Strokes

Unlike last week, where the marquee venue played as the more difficult of the two courses, this week's rotation will hide the tougher of the two venues. Over the last seven iterations of the AT&T Pro-Am, Spyglass Hill has played to a 72.33 scoring average and only played below par on two occasions (2018, 2019). These difficult confines won't do much to comfort Rickie Fowler these days, as the World #28 has experienced an abrupt fall from grace following his breakthrough win in Detroit last summer. Rickie has lost strokes to the field average in seven consecutive appearances, and in four starts since the Fall Swing began, Fowler has only managed 25 total players out of the 313 he's teed it up against.

It's hard to find a tangible reason for this sudden slump in form, but for a player that comes in ranked 76th out of 80 players in Total Driving and 51st in Good Drive %, the tight, tree-lined corridors of Spyglass Hill could spell potential disaster. Fowler also ranks 67th in Birdie or Better Percentage, 69th in Par 5 Scoring, and 63rd in Strokes Gained: Putting over his last 24 rounds. He's recently shot scores of 75 and 76 at Kapalua's Plantation Course and the Stadium Course at PGA West - two of the most benign layouts you'll ever find on the PGA Tour.

This is no state to be attempting to grapple with a golf course that features eight holes with a Bogey or Worse rate over 20%, and just six that have historically played under par. To make matters worse, Fowler has never gained strokes on the Poa Annua greens of Pebble Beach in four career starts, so we can't even reliably bank on positive course history to carry the day for the Murrieta, California native. For the sake of his many fans around the world, I hope Rickie can recapture some of the magic we saw over the first six months of 2023, but it's hard to find many reasons within the last few months to project the trendline to reverse course from its current downturn.

Xander Schauffele LESS than 69.5 Strokes

Although the potential for heavy winds later in the week has been cited as one of the main storylines to monitor heading into this event, current forecasts currently have Thursday shaping up to be a pretty benign day for golf. With winds projected to remain steadily in the 8-12 mph range, and recent rains softening up the Monterey Peninsula, the potential for low scores is about as high as you'll ever get this time of year on the Pacific coastline. I'll therefore have no issue targeting Xander Schauffele's under in the Round 1 strokes market, as the 5th ranked player in the world has made a habit of getting off to a quick start early this season. In his three opening rounds at Kapalua, La Quinta, and Torrey Pines South, Schauffele has made a whopping 17 birdies, 1 eagle, and only 1 bogey on his way to a cumulative mark of (-18).

Xander doesn't have the same long-term track record here at Pebble Beach when compared to fellow Californians Patrick Cantlay or Max Homa, but a 3rd place finish here at the 2019 U.S. Open proves he's got more than enough game to tackle the toughest iteration of Pebble Beach. That week, he also happened to card a 5-under 66 to sit just one shot back of first-round leader Justin Rose, gaining over 4.5 strokes putting on Pebble Beach's notoriously tricky greens in the process.

Schauffele remains one of the most consistent entities we have in the golfing world right now: finishing outside the top 10 just once in his last six starts, and rating out inside the top 15 in SG: APP, Birdie Chances Created, Long-term Poa Annua Putting, and SG: Tee-to-Green. With the form he carries into this week, there simply aren't many scenarios where I can see Schauffele's week completely imploding. I think he's the safest bet on the board to get off to a flying start tomorrow afternoon.

Other Recommendations

• Hideki Matsuyama MORE than 3.5 Birdies or Better
• Justin Rose MORE than Davis Riley - Birdies or Better Matchup
• Jason Day MORE than Thomas Detry - Birdies or Better Matchup

Overall recommendation for this play: Power Play

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