PrizePicks PGA DFS Prop Picks - Over/Under Props for the American Express (Round 1)

January 17, 2024

Today's PrizePicks PGA DFS prop picks for the Fortinet Championship (Round 1) by Ian McNeill. Use his golf over/under props recommendations to win money on PrizePicks.

Welcome to our PrizePicks PGA DFS prop picks for the American Express (Round 1). The PGA Tour season is back in full swing for 2024, and to celebrate, PrizePicks has an extensive selection of PGA props to take advantage of! PrizePicks is a great DFS props site where you can choose to select plays in terms of fantasy points or singular stats. The goal is to build a 2-player, 3-player, 4-player, or 5-player entry and then select whether or not you want to play for the power play or the flex play. On the power play, you will need to be correct on each of your selections to win, and on the flex play, you will have a little more wiggle room for a chance to win some money back.

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This week, we're at PGA West for the 2023 American Express! The first leg of the annual California swing might not hold the same cache as upcoming stops like Torrey Pines or Pebble Beach, but what the AmEx lacks in prestige, it has made up for in recent years with nail-biting finishes and out-of-nowhere winners. Three of the last five Champions here at PGA West entered the week with outright odds of 200-1 or greater, and between the dome-like desert conditions, the pristine state of the green complexes, and three golf courses that have each conceded rounds of 10-under (or lower) within the last five years, anyone that brings his A-game to Palm Springs is capable of charging up this week's leaderboard. I and the entire Rotoballer PGA staff have put out 1,000s of words on the course, key stats, and field this week, so this article won't be focused on the minutiae of projecting outright winners or DFS pivot plays. Instead, I'll be solely focused on a few money-making opportunities I've found in PrizePicks' unique markets to help you build your bankroll as the PGA Tour season gets into full swing! Today's plays are specifically for round one on Thursday, January 18.

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Single Stat PGA Totals - DFS Prop Picks

Prize Picks prop totals are not always available first thing in the morning, so check back during the day as other props may be added during the day.

Taylor Montgomery MORE than 5.5 Birdies or Better

Montgomery's historic deficiencies in pressure moments caused him to be one of the final cuts off of my outright card this week, but a Thursday morning birdie-or-better line is exactly the type of market I'm comfortable deploying the 28-year-old Las Vegas native. Montgomery finished 5th here at PGA West last season to complete a run of eight top 15 finishes in nine starts to begin his PGA Tour career, and although he didn't fair nearly as well as the Tour transitioned to its more difficult venues, Montgomery has started to pop up again in recent weeks on the same corollary courses.

His last four results of T16, T31, T8, and T13 is the best run of form we've seen out of Taylor since his meteoric rise as a rookie, and of any course on the schedule, PGA West might well profile as the best pure fit for his eclectic game. Montgomery has been held back by his mediocre ball-striking prowess in his time at the top level, but when you isolate the facets of the game for which PGA West asks the most of you, Taylor is far more accomplished than his price would indicate. He rates out inside the top 30 on the PGA Tour in Stokes/Gained per shot on Approaches from <150 yards, and of course, his putter has remained one of the elite weapons in the sport even through the arduous times he had in spring/summer last season.

Given his prowess from one of my key scoring ranges (<125 yards), and his evergreen aptitude in piling on birdies (8th on Tour in Birdie Average last season), I remain optimistic about his prospects in the Coachella Valley this week. The Nicklaus Tournament Course where he'll start his tournament played as the easiest of the three venues in last year's rendition (68.72 scoring average), and after gaining a career-best 7.1 strokes on approach last week at Waialae, Montgomery is carrying as much momentum as we've seen since he left Palm Springs 12 months ago. He has as good a chance as anyone of taking it deep with an early AM tee time Thursday morning.

Patrick Cantlay MORE than 6.0 Birdies or Better

Although the Nicklaus course took the title as the easiest of the three venues here last year, La Quinta Country Club has been the one that has historically provided the greater volume of birdie chances. Nobody would know that better than Patrick Cantlay, who fired an opening-round 62 around these links in 2022, and has recorded an eye-popping 21 birdies or better in three rounds played at this course since 2019.

Cantlay has remarked on many occasions that the green complexes at La Quinta are some of his favorite on the PGA Tour, and on a golf course that features four of the easiest Par 5's you'll see all year, as well as seven Par 4's that measure under 425 yards, a ball-striker of Cantlay's stature will have plenty of opportunities to keep the peddle down on some of the purest putting surfaces you'll ever see. Cantlay was second on the PGA Tour last year in Birdie or Better Percentage from <125 yards, as well as first in Par 5 Scoring Average. Playing with Scottie Scheffler from Thursday-Saturday, Cantlay will have the perfect dog to chase around PGA West's benign three-course rotation.

Other Recommendations

• Sungjae Im LESS than 67.5 Strokes
• Chris Kirk MORE than 5.5 Birdies or Better
• Tom Kim MORE than Min Woo Lee - Birdies or Better Matchup

Overall recommendation for this play: Power Play

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