A huge part of succeeding in fantasy baseball is being able to spot market inefficiencies and knowing how to exploit them. Ownership rates are an excellent way to understand how other owners collectively value a particular player. They don't tell the whole story, of course, but if you're trying to establish a player's price, his ownership rate is probably more reliable than his current rank according to his production.

Opportunities abound to take advantage of such inefficiencies. That's essentially the purpose of this weekly column: to highlight said discrepancies in value (or valuation) and help you exploit them.

Editor’s Note: to read about waiver wire options, be sure to check out our famous waiver wire pickups list which is a running list that is updated daily. Prefer using your phone? Our free waiver wire app is available for download in the Apple & Android Stores.

Consider Selling These Starting Pitchers

Jordan Zimmermann, DET
83% owned, via Fleaflicker

Zimmermann is an obvious sell-high name -- his 1.10 ERA slaps you in the face as unsustainable. But it goes beyond his good luck so far (which, by the way, has come from many different places). His 4.41 xFIP indicates the underlying metrics think very poorly of Zim. In fact, his xFIP would be the highest of his career by a wide margin and, if the season ended today, would mark the first time in his career it has ever been above 4.00.

The culprit is opposing hitters' reluctance to chase pitches outside the zone. According to Baseball Info Solutions, his chase rate (O-Swing%) has dropped almost 6 percentage points, from 32.5% to 26.9%. Meanwhile, when hitters do chase, they have made more contact than ever before, as evidenced by his O-Contact% that has increased more 9 percentage points, from 69.7% to 78.8%.

In other words, Zim's not fooling anyone right now. All of his primary pitches -- the fastball, the slider, the curve -- have allowed more contact outside the zone than usual. Hitters have yet to swing and miss on his curve when he spots it in the zone. It's his most problematic pitch right now, its swinging strike rate (SwStr%) shrinking by more than half its 2015 magnitude. The issue might be with movement -- the pitch is breaking nowhere near as much as it once did.

Alas, regression is not only awaiting Zim in the shadows. It may hit hard, especially if he doesn't make adjustments that either (1) fix the problems with curve or, should he not tinker with it, (2) play to his strengths as a pitcher. It's hard to complain about the result so far, but Zim will not only be hit hard soon but also may revert to a version of his self that will make us forget all about his feel-good April and early May.

 
Jeff Samardzija, SFG
85% owned, via Fleaflicker

The success and underlying concerns are a little less extreme with Samardzija. Hitters are laying off pitches outside but making frequent contact when they do swing. His swinging strike rate isn't far different from what it was last year when he struck out a meager 6.9 hitters per nine innings (K/9).

Fortunately, Samardzija's ground ball rate (GB%) has spiked back to 2014 levels, tempering the ill effects of the long ball. It's helping him prevent hard contact, and it's enough to push his xFIP down to 3.46, reminiscent of his prime years in the North Side.

But those are the kinds of things that regress. Hard contact will likely be made in the air, and hard contact will elevate Samardzija's currently suppressed batting average on balls in play (BABIP). So there's always a chance that he can't keep causing hitters to kill worms.

The primary concern, however, is the strikeout rate K%, which may not stick above 20% if Samardzija can't induce more hitters to chase his junk or force hitters to whiff on his out-of-zone heaters. He would also do well to reintroduce his splitter, which he has all but phased out this year. With a career 20.2% swinging strike rate, it was easily his best pitch in a large sample.

As aforementioned, the concern here is minor but still non-zero. Samardzija is not Jake Arrieta in that he's superb at preventing hard contact, especially if his pitches seem as hittable as the underlying metrics depict. If the baserunner prevention via strikeouts isn't there to support him, the regression could hit hard as well. Regardless, Samardzija won't continue to win 75% of his starts, so don't expect a 24-win soon -- or ever.

 
Some waiver wire alternatives to consider: Aaron Nola (49% owned), Rich Hill (34% owned), Joe Ross (34% owned), Drew Pomeranz (30% owned)

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