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Read our best NRFI betting picks today - Major League Baseball NRFI predictions for 7/2/2025. No Runs First Inning (NRFI) betting tips, expert MLB predictions, odds, and trends.
It was a rainy Tuesday, so two of our five bets were washed out, but the other three NRFIs all hit for a perfect 3-0 record on the night. I'll take it! We can run it back in those two spots again today, too.
This is the first ever six-NRFI article, but that has to do with a few double-headers today and trying to cash those two rainout spots from yesterday. Let's see if we can't keep this momentum going, shall we?
On this page, I'll provide my best NRFI and YRFI bets today for MLB games on Wednesday, July 2, 2025. Monitor the weather and lineups for each team before placing your wagers. Odds for these bets are from DraftKings or FanDuel Sportsbook.
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What Are MLB NRFI/YRFI Bets?
NRFI bets are bets where you try to pick whether or not two MLB teams will combine for one run in the first inning. YRFI stands for "Yes Run First Inning," while NRFI means "No Run First Inning."
We prefer to target NRFI because it tends to occur more frequently, which is why you usually see shorter odds than on YRFI. It's also just more enjoyable, as there's nothing more tilting than watching your team strand baserunners when you need them to score in the first inning.
The best part of NRFI wagers is how they settle so quickly. This is a fun sweat, as these six outs can be thrilling, especially if your pitcher works his way out of a jam. Remember to only go with a smaller percentage of your bankroll because this can be a volatile market with even the best pitchers struggling in the first inning.
Best First Inning Bets Today (July 2, 2025)
- St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates: 12:35 pm
- San Diego Padres at Philadelphia Phillies: 1:05 pm
- Milwaukee Brewers at New York Mets: 1:10 pm
- San Diego Padres at Philadelphia Phillies: 6:15 pm
- Detroit Tigers at Washington Nationals: 6:45 pm
- Kansas City Royals at Seattle Mariners: 9:40 pm
St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates NRFI (-135 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Starting Pitchers
- STL: Sonny Gray
- PIT: Mitch Keller
The pitcher's duel between Paul Skenes and Andre Pallante played out much as we expected yesterday. Both pitchers worked a scoreless first frame and proceeded to shut down their opponent for the rest of their start, as both of them left with the score still tied at 0-0.
The Pirates kept their win streak going with a 1-0 win, finally eeking out a run in the bottom of the eighth inning.
We have an early afternoon start here at PNC Park today on "getaway day" and I'm always on the look for some funky lineups on these days as managers tend to give regulars a rest on day games after night games or in the final game of a series (this game is both of those things).
Sonny Gray throws a GEM! 💎
9.0 IP
1 H
0 ER
0 BB
11 SO
89 PFirst recorded sub-90-pitch, complete-game shutout with over 10 strikeouts. pic.twitter.com/9PD4gv3Y0e
— StatMuse Baseball (@statmusemlb) June 28, 2025
Both pitchers are good enough that they don't need weakened lineups to be successful, but hey, it never hurts. Gray is fresh off a complete game, a dominant shutout of the Guardians, and riding a five-game NRFI streak. He's at 12-4 on NRFIs this season, while his mound opponent Mitch Keller is a solid 12-5.
Both pitchers are in good form, and these bats (especially the Cardinals') have been pretty quiet this series.
San Diego Padres at Philadelphia Phillies NRFI (-115 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Starting Pitchers
- SDP: Nick Pivetta
- PHI: Mick Abel
The Phillies are shifting their rotation around a bit, sending the rookie Abel out in game one of the doubleheader to face Pivetta and saving Cristopher Sanchez for the second game.
Updated pitching matchups for tomorrow’s doubleheader:
Game 1: 1:05pm
Mick Abel vs. Nick PivettaGame 2: 6:15pm
Cristopher Sanchez vs. Dylan Ceasepic.twitter.com/euq0Vjx93X— Phillies Tailgate (@PhilsTailgate) July 1, 2025
Yesterday, I discussed Pivetta's strong track record of NRFIs this season (12-4) and gave him my vote of confidence.
As far as Abel goes, he's 5-1 on NRFIs this season but is coming off his first YRFI. The Philly pitchers have a strong case today, though, as the Padres bring an 11-game offensive NRFI streak into this game as they continue to slump at the plate.
We should get a weird lineup for each team in at least one of these games today, which could help, too, though the top of the lineup is less likely to be affected.
Milwaukee Brewers at New York Mets NRFI (-120 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Starting Pitchers
- MIL: Freddy Peralta
- NYM: Clay Holmes
This is the first game of a double-dip between the two teams today, as last night's game was rained out. Please make sure you have selected the right game when making this bet!
The Mets are struggling on offense and coming off a beatdown by the Pirates over the weekend. Their offense has just a 2-8 record on YRFIs over the last 1o games, and they'll face Peralta, a dominant righty with a 14-3 NRFI record on the season.
The tougher matchup here is the red-hot Brewers offense against Clay Holmes. Milwaukee has a 4-6 YRFI record over their last 10 and has been scoring in bunches. The good news is that Holmes has been fantastic in the first inning this season, with a 14-2 NRFI record and a nine-game NRFI streak intact.
For those who didn't do the math, that's a combined NRFI record of 28-5 for our two starters! Let's see if they can keep that first-inning magic going here today, too.
San Diego Padres at Philadelphia Phillies NRFI (-120 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Starting Pitchers
- SDP: Dylan Cease
- PHI: Cristopher Sanchez
Should we go after the second game of this doubleheader, too? Why not? We have two more stud pitchers on the hill as the Padres roll with the hard-throwing righty Cease and the Phillies counter with Sanchez and his unhittable changeup.
Like Pivetta, my only real concern with Cease is that he leaves a belt-high fastball out over the plate to someone like Kyle Schwarber or Bryce Harper. Cease has elite stuff, though, and could roll right through the first hitters if he's locating his fastball and slider.
This is another solid price for two good pitchers and at least one struggling offense (Padres), I am going for it! Let's cash both games of the doubleheader today!
Detroit Tigers at Washington Nationals NRFI (-135 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Starting Pitchers
- DET: Jack Flaherty
- WAS: MacKenzie Gore
This is another instance where we are targeting the second game of a doubleheader, so please make sure you're selecting the right game. It's Trevor Williams against Tyler Holton in the first game, and we don't want anything to do with that one!
But the second game features a fantastic pitchers' duel between Flaherty and Gore, two pitchers with ace-level stuff and solid NRFI track records.
Flaherty is 14-2 on NRFIs this season, while Gore is 13-4.
MacKenzie Gore, Filthy 88mph Slider...and Sword. ⚔️ pic.twitter.com/DHojiOHSpq
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) June 25, 2025
The Nationals come into today having scored in the first inning just once in their last ten games. Over the last month, they rank just 27th in wRC+ vs. RHP, too. Flaherty has had a few rocky outings lately, but this feels like a great bounce-back spot for him.
The Tigers are always dangerous, but their bite is a little less severe against lefties this season. Detroit is also just 2-8 on offensive YRFIs over their last 10 innings. With the season that MacKenzie Gore is having, I'm giving him my vote of confidence to keep a clean sheet in the first, even against an excellent Detroit lineup.
Kansas City Royals at Seattle Mariners NRFI (-145 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Starting Pitchers
- KCR: Noah Cameron
- SEA: Logan Gilbert
The Royals' rookie Cameron comes into this one with a strong 7-2 NRFI record. He allowed a YRFI in his last start against the Dodgers when he gave up a solo shot to Shohei Ohtani, but I think we can forgive him for that, right?
He'll face a Mariners lineup that gets flipped on the wrong side of their splits against a lefty and has a 2-8 YRFI record over their last 10 games. Advantage Cameron.
Seattle counters with their ace Gilbert, who you would expect to have a dominant NRFI record, right? Well, he's just 4-5 on the season (remember he missed over a month due to injury) and has allowed a YRFI in four of his last five.
I am betting on Gilbert's talent here to buck that trend. He has been victimized by the long ball lately, too, giving up solo home runs to Corey Seager and Seiya Suzuki in his last two starts despite pitching well otherwise.
The top of the Royals' order doesn't scare me much, other than Bobby Witt Jr., so I think Gilbert can navigate them successfully today to keep a clean first inning.
Notable NRFI/YRFI MLB Trends: Last 10 Games
- Best NRFI hit rate: Padres (100%)
- Best YRFI hit rate: Diamondbacks, Red Sox (50%)
- Most First Inning Home Runs: Cubs (4)
- Best First Inning Batting Average: Red Sox (.373)
- Best First Inning On-Base Percentage: Red Sox (.467)
Conclusion
After a perfect 3-0 NRFI night on Tuesday, we’re riding that momentum into an action-packed Wednesday with six strong NRFI bets on the board — including a few second-chance plays from Tuesday’s rainouts.
With elite arms like Jack Flaherty, Dylan Cease, and Sonny Gray taking the mound, the foundation for another profitable day of NRFI betting today is firmly in place.
Doubleheaders offer rare value, and we’re capitalizing on both matchups in Philly. Let’s stay disciplined, trust the data, and keep stacking wins in the NRFI betting market!
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