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Joe Nicely digs into his daily fantasy Power Pivot contrarian selections for Week 11 of the 2018 NFL season, featuring low-ownership-percentage players who can help your NFL DFS lineups for DraftKings GPP tournaments.
It's Week 11 RotoBallers! Hard to believe it, but here we are. I hope all of your DFS screens were green in Week 10! Last week's Power Pivots gave us mixed results. Our QB, RB, and DEF/ST selections performed great, but we had total misses at WR and TE. Let's try to nail them all in this week's article!
The first thing that stands out to me when looking at this slate...is that nothing stands out. The DFS dream game, KC vs LA, is unfortunately not on the DraftKings main slate. So, we find ourselves sorting through lots of games that could lead to fantasy fireworks, but nothing screams of certainty at first glance. Let's take a look at some players that are projected to be popular this week and try to identify some alternative options. Thanks for joining me, let's get to it!
All ownership projections in this article are courtesy of the awesome folks at UFCollective. They provide the most accurate ownership projections that I have found in the DFS industry and now offer their content directly to the public. It is a premium product that is worth every penny and available here. They offer NFL, NBA, and MLB content for both DraftKings and FanDuel. You can follow them on Twitter @UFCollective.
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Week 11 NFL DFS Power Pivots for DraftKings GPPs
As I mention every week, ownership considerations should come at the end of your weekly research process. Ownership projections change throughout the week and I highly recommend that you refer back to this column before finalizing your lineups. I will update ownership projections and add injury notes with additional strategy thoughts on Saturdays.
QB CHALK: Drew Brees ($6,500)
Projected DraftKings Ownership: 18%
POWER PIVOT: Ryan Fitzpatrick ($5,600)
Projected DraftKings Ownership: 4%
Can't argue with Brees in this spot, as the Saints are perhaps the hottest offense in the NFL at the moment. Price is the biggest concern with Brees this week. He sits atop the salary scale at the QB position with a price tag of $6,500.
I really didn't want to land on Ryan Fitzpatrick this week. I've been tangled up with the Tampa Bay QB position over the last several weeks and I've reluctantly found my way back here again in Week 11. I looked closely at Marcus Mariota ($5,500) and Eli Manning ($5,200), but neither have a floor or ceiling that can compare to those of Fitz. His lowest DraftKings output in a game that he's played start to finish is last week's 19.7 points, when he threw for over 400 yards, but zero TDs in a flukey statistical outing. That floor hugely eclipses that of both Mariota and Manning, who also lack Fitz's type of 30-plus point upside.
I suppose the biggest concern when rostering Fitz is the threat of him being benched in favor of Jameis Winston. It's a legitimate concern and one I'm not totally discounting. However, I believe the Bucs have moved past Winston at this point and would only be on the hook for his huge 2019 salary if he gets hurt this season. So, I don't see Fitzpatrick getting pulled for throwing a couple of early interceptions and it's my opinion that it would take an injury or an extremely horrible performance for Winston to get on the field again this season.
As for the actual on the field matchup for Fitzpatrick, it's middle of the road. The Giants are a decent 12th in the league in yards allowed per pass, but rank toward the bottom of the NFL in points and total yards allowed per game. We've discussed in this article previously that what makes the Bucs such a recipe for DFS success is not only their talented passing attack, but also their atrocious defense. That figures to play a factor again this week, as Vegas has hung an Over/Under of 52 on this game, the second-highest total on the slate.
I look for the scoring to be fast and furious in this one. Last week's three-point outing against Washington reeks of an outlier game, as the Bucs had previously cracked 27 points in all four games that Fitzpatrick had played start to finish. I'm expecting somewhere in that range for the Bucs this week and look for over 300 yards and a couple of TDs from Fitz.
SATURDAY UPDATE: Not much to report here. Brees will lead the way in ownership and both QBs in the NO/Phi matchup are great options. There's a QB situation brewing in Baltimore, with Joe Flacco ($5,300) doubtful to play. We would think this is a great spot for value with Lamar Jackson ($4,700), but some reports are saying that RG3 ($4,700) would be heavily involved if Flacco is out. The outlook for this situation is extremely murky and I will likely stay away completely if there is no more clarity before kickoff.
RB CHALK: Alvin Kamara ($8,200)
Projected DraftKings Ownership: 24%
POWER PIVOT: Ezekiel Elliott ($8,500)
Projected DraftKings Ownership: 10%
If you read last week's edition of Power Pivots you know that we were all over our boy AK-41 as an alternative to KC's Kareem Hunt. Kamara paid off big time and folks appear to be hopping on the bandwagon, as he leads ownership projections in Week 11.
While I love me some Kamara, I'm all aboard the Zeke train this week. It feels really strange saying that, because I very rarely have Elliott in my DFS lineups. However, this week the Cowboys back catches a matchup that I just can't ignore.
Zeke rolls into a Week 11 showdown with the Atlanta Falcons hot off a huge 39.7 point DraftKings performance against the Philadelphia Eagles. I have repeatedly picked on this Falcons defense throughout the season with excellent results. I'm going back for more this week with usage monster Elliott, who has garnered at least 17 touches in every Cowboys game this season. This bodes well against an Atlanta defense that has allowed a minimum of 18 DraftKings points to every RB that has had at least 13 touches against them. Zeke will see way over the magic 13-touch watermark this week and has an excellent chance to do damage both on the ground and through the air against a Falcons defense that has allowed the most RB receptions in the NFL.
We would prefer for the Cowboys to be favored in this matchup, but with Atlanta installed as just three-point favorites, this game should stay close throughout. I expect a positive outcome for Elliott no matter what the game flow might be in this spot. He will be effective both running and catching the ball against Atlanta this week. The masses will flock to Kamara for $300 less than Zeke, which will give us a nice amount of leverage in large-field GPPs.
SATURDAY UPDATE: Things have been quiet at the RB position this week. With Todd Gurley and Kareem Hunt playing Monday night, it's a week where we "pick the player we like best" up top. I like Elliott's huge usage and matchup, but a case could be make for any of the RB's priced above $7k this week. Leonard Fournette ($6,900) returned to the Jags lineup last week and is expected to be a full go again in Week 11. Denver's Royce Freeman ($3,800) will return from injury this week, tanking the value of talented RB Phillip Lindsay ($5,200). He disappointed lots of folks last week, but Titans RB Dion Lewis ($4,800) still stands out as a great value with his talent and steady usage.
WR CHALK: Odell Beckham Jr ($8,400)
Projected DraftKings Ownership: 25%
POWER PIVOT: Alshon Jeffery ($6,300)
Projected DraftKings Ownership: 7%
OBJ is drawing some heat this week in a dream spot vs Tampa Bay. I will definitely have him on some rosters, but he will be hugely popular. His running mate Sterling Shepard is also a nice discount option at only $5,300 against a Bucs team that allows points to every position on the field.
In the interest of full disclosure, I've been absolutely stone cold at the WR position over the last few weeks. It's been extremely frustrating because things have went so well at other spots. I'm looking to break the curse in Week 11 with Philadelphia's Alshon Jeffery.
Despite being in a tremendous spot, Jeffery is currently projected for sub-10% ownership. This Saints/Eagles matchup carries the highest Over/Under on the slate with a massive point projection of 56. The Eagles are eight-point underdogs in this one and should be forced to abandon the run early in order to keep up with the high-powered Saints offense. Jeffery has received a steady workload this season, averaging 8.6 targets per game in his six starts. I look for Carson Wentz to look Jeffery's way even more than that in this probable shootout.
Jeffery will draw coverage from Marshon Lattimore, but we've seen repeatedly over the years that Jeffery has the ability to beat any one-on-one matchup. Despite their 8-1 record, the Saints pass defense has been routinely sub-par. They rank 30th in yards allowed per pass and grade out dead last in the league vs opposing WRs. Jeffery has been quiet in his last two games, but this is the by far the best matchup that he's had in some time.
SATURDAY UPDATE: Things are ugly at the WR spot for Oakland, Cincinnati and Detroit, but unfortunately things are sooo ugly that it's hard to take advantage of the these situations. Both Jordy Nelson and Martavis Bryant are out for the Raiders. This is an offense that has been hugely ineffective even with these guys in the lineup, so I have no interest in going there against a stingy Arizona secondary. A.J. Green and Josh Malone are again doubtful for the Bengals, but last week's darling John Ross is also now questionable, leaving Cincy only Tyer Boyd ($7,000) and a bunch of guys you've never heard of in a brutal matchup against Baltimore. Detroit WR Kenny Golladay ($5,800) should get all the work he can handle with both Marvin Jones Jr and TE Michael Roberts ruled out. Of all the options listed above, Golladay should be the most viable play.
TE CHALK: Zach Ertz ($6,600)
Projected DraftKings Ownership: 22%
POWER PIVOT: Jordan Reed ($3,800)
Projected DraftKings Ownership: 3%
TE was another ugly spot for me last week and there's not a lot to love on this slate. I rarely pay up at TE, but I will be making a concentrated effort to get Zach Ertz in some lineups this week, despite his hefty salary.
If I can't make Ertz work, I will look to save as much salary as possible. It's pretty crazy to see a healthy Jordan Reed at just $3,800, but the bottom-line is that Reed hasn't produced this season. The Redskins have Reed running much more conservative routes this season and we are yet to see an explosive outing from the former high-upside TE. Reed has only logged one TD on the season and has failed to crack 100 yards receiving in any game.
Ok, now that we have all the ugly stuff out of the way, let's talk about the bright side of things. Despite failing to have a blow-up game, Reed is still being targeted consistently. He's drawn over five targets in seven of nine games, for an average of 6.5 targets per game. Reed also has a sneaky-good matchup this week. The Texans defense has been excellent at shutting down opposing WRs, but has struggled vs TEs. Houston is allowing an almost 80% completion rate to opposing TEs and have allowed the fourth-most yards per target to TEs, along with four TDs to the position.
Reed is no doubt a deep dive, but with his heavily reduced price and sub-5% ownership share, he's a viable option in large-field GPPs. We can project him at 5-8 targets, with something like a 4-60-1 line being well within reach and more than paying off his salary.
SATURDAY UPDATE: TE is one of the nastiest positions on the board this week. Zach Ertz is in a "set it and forget it" spot. Carolina's Greg Olsen ($5,000) offers the best floor at TE outside of Ertz. TB's O.J. Howard ($4,900) has tons of talent and big upside, but last week's 2.5 point dud reminded us of his low floor due to inconsistent usage. Lots of folks will be tempted by Indy's Eric Ebron ($4,300) after last week's monster game, but we have to remember that his monster game came on just three targets (for the second week in a row) and he will have to remain extremely efficient to continue putting points up.
D/ST CHALK: Houston Texans ($2,600)
Projected DraftKings Ownership: 12%
POWER PIVOT: Pittsburgh Steelers ($2,900)
Projected DraftKings Ownership: 7%
I've really simplified my DEF/ST process over the last several weeks. I'm not sure if it's coincidence or my new common-sense approach, but I've fared well at the usually unpredictable position lately. This week I'm going to continue keeping things simple by penciling in the Pittsburgh Steelers in my lineups. The Steelers have seen a salary bump and are at $2,900. It's a price I'm willing to pay for this unit that is really hitting it's stride. Pittsburgh is quietly tied for the league lead in sacks and draws a juicy matchup against the Blake Bortles-led Jacksonville Jaguars. The Jags have struggled offensively this season and are 29th in the NFL with an average of just 17.8 points per game.
Leonard Fournette's return the Jags backfield does give us something to think about, but the Steelers have been very stout against the run and rank near the top of the NFL in fewest yards allowed to RBs. DEF/ST is a position that is volatile by nature, so we're never going to lock-in points, but I like everything about this week's matchup for the Steelers.
SATURDAY UPDATE: Still loving Pittsburgh at DEF/ST this week. Arizona ($3,100) makes tons of sense against an injury-depleted Oakland offense that has been lifeless for weeks. I always love trying to save salary at DEF/ST, but nothing jumps out at me below the Texans at $2,600 on this slate.
