NBA Draft: Five Rookies Most Likely To Struggle In 2020-21

November 20, 2020

Five rookies from the 2020 NBA Draft who are likely to be fantasy basketball busts during their first NBA season. These are players to avoid in fantasy drafts.

The 2020 NBA Draft was Wednesday night, and while this fast-paced week of NBA action probably has you thinking about free agency already, let's not forget about how the draft will impact fantasy basketball this season.

Every year, rookies come in and create an immediate impact, but you probably know who to target if that's what you're looking for: Cole Anthony, James Wiseman, LaMelo Ball.

Instead, I want to look at five first round picks who might have some nice long-term outlooks, but who you should not count on right out of the gates to contribute to your fantasy rosters.

Patrick Williams - F, Chicago Bulls

Williams has a lot of really nice tools, but those tools come in an unfinished toolbox. His rookie season will be about building out a lid and some compartments for that toolbox.

The 6-foot-8 forward came off the bench last season for Florida State, which helps explain some mediocre stats, as he averaged 9.2 points and 4.0 rebounds per game along with a steal and a block per contest.

He's got great size. He's versatile. He can probably work defensively at three positions, albeit only for short spurts at the five. On the defensive end, he can probably jump onto an NBA floor and contribute immediately.

But offense is a work in progress for Williams, who has to improve his shooting if he's going to be a stretch four, which is what I think the Bulls are hoping for. He's also flashed some good passing ability for a player his size, but will need to work on honing those skills.

Williams might be one of the best players in this draft in a couple seasons, but unless the team makes some trades, he'll be competing with Lauri Markkanen and Otto Porter Jr. for minutes this season and isn't likely to put up the numbers that make him a fantasy addition.

Onyeka Okongwu - C, Atlanta Hawks

Another promising player, but who will likely be brought along slowly.

Okongwu currently looks set to be the third big for this team, though free agency could change that if the Hawks make a win-now move, which is possible.

Clint Capela and John Collins are your starting bigs right now in Atlanta, and as long as both are on the opening night roster, it's hard to see Okongwu getting enough minutes behind that duo to be fantasy relevant.

His defensive versatility and vertical ability near the basket can give him a bench role this season, though his struggles to do things on offense outside of finishing at the rim are why I'm low on him in the short term. To be more than just a rim-rolling backup five, he'll have to develop some range, at least into the midrange of the court.

But he has the tools necessary to be a modern NBA big, so he should be high on your radar in dynasty rookie drafts, We just need to temper our expectations for his rookie campaign.

Jalen Smith - F, Phoenix Suns

I try to find the positives when it comes to most draft picks. I really, really do.

But the Phoenix Suns pulled another classic Phoenix Suns Draft Reach™ by taking Jalen Smith, a power forward out of Maryland who many didn't have in their top 20 in this class. So, of course, they took him at 10.

Smith showed improvement as a shooter last year and could be a very good stretch four, but he has a LOT of work to do before he can defend on the perimeter. It makes it tough to see how he slots in on a Suns team that just traded for Chris Paul and is in win now mode. I'd guess the expectation is Aron Baynes leaves in free agency and Smith can play some backup five behind Deandre Ayton for now, with maybe the ultimate goal to be displacing Dario Saric and Cameron Johnson at the four.

But that won't happen as a rookie. He'll probably struggle to stay on the floor until he figures out how to get stronger. NBA centers are going to bully him inside. Wings can get past him outside. Just not a player I feel comfortable with right now.

Aleksej Pokusevski - F, Oklahoma City Thunder

This is all about 2020-21, because Poku is one of my favorite prospects from this class in the long term.

But if we're talking exclusively about fantasy redraft leagues, I think there are too many mysteries about how he'll adapt to the NBA.

For one, we haven't seen him against high-level competition, as he played 11 gams last year in the second division in Greece. He averaged a solid 10.8 points, 7.9 rebounds, 3.1 assists, 1.8 blocks, and 1.3 steals, but the jump up in competition from that league to the NBA is immense.

Poku is a seven-footer who can play outside and is almost more of a wing than a big. That could translate into stardom in the right setting.

But he also needs to put on some weight and learn to operate in a structured offense, and he's the quintessential project pick. He'll show flashes this year, but ultimately we're a year or two away from actually seeing what he can do at the NBA level.

Zeke Nnaji - PF/C, Denver Nuggets

Just a really frustrating landing spot here.

Nnaji's an athletic big whose defense never developed at Arizona, and now he lands on a team that has its franchise center in Nikola Jokic.

So, the question becomes this: is this pick just about needing a backup for Jokic, or do they see the two able to play together some? Long term, I'd guess the latter, but Nnaji will need to show that playing alongside Jokic won't be a defensive disaster for the Nuggets.

This could work. He'll bring plenty of energy to the second unit in Denver. But energy doesn't always translate to fantasy production, and unless the Nuggets lose a big in free agency, there likely aren't enough available frontcourt minutes in Denver for Nnaji to do much with. Let's not forget that Bol Bol is around too!

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