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Frank Ammirante's best MLB player prop bets for today (4/21/2025). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props.
We've got a smaller slate with eight games to choose from MLB, so we'll have to dig deep to find our favorite home run props. Keep in mind to always use less of your bankroll on these plays because they have a lower hit rate than other props.
The strategy behind our home run props includes batter vs. pitcher data, batted ball metrics, lefty-right splits, and weather conditions. We'll also focus on the odds because we want the price to be at least (+300) for a better return on investment.
Keep reading to see my favorite home run prop bets from MLB games on Monday, April 21, 2025. All odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change throughout the day. Don't forget to shop around at other sportsbooks to find the best value on your wagers.
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MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks
Here are the hitters I'll cover for Monday, April 21:
- Marcell Ozuna, Atlanta Braves
- Juan Soto, New York Mets
- Spencer Torkelson, Detroit Tigers
- Elly De La Cruz, Cincinnati Reds
- George Springer, Toronto Blue Jays
Marcell Ozuna OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+300 DraftKings)
Marcell Ozuna leaves the yard! pic.twitter.com/96vYqYfTKk
— Talkin’ Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) April 20, 2025
Marcell Ozuna is currently slashing .304/.466/.500 with three home runs in 73 plate appearances, one of which came yesterday against the Twins.
While the power hasn't been up to Ozuna's standards just yet, this is a hitter with back-to-back 39+ home run seasons, so we have to trust the track record. You also have to like the plate discipline (23.3 BB%, 24.7 K percentage) and batted ball metrics (56.1 percent hard-hit rate, 92nd percentile) so far.
The Braves slugger is heating up, going 3-for-7 with one homer and zero strikeouts in his last two games. It feels like we're getting a power binge soon. The matchup looks good for Monday with Ozuna going up against righty Erick Fedde.
In 17 career plate appearances vs Fedde, Ozuna has two home runs with a .720 xwOBA. The Cardinals' righty is allowing a .425 xwOBA on his sweeper, which is a pitch he mostly throws to righties. That's good news for Ozuna, who has put up a .391 xwOBA against this pitch.
Add in the fact that Truist Park ranks 13th for right-handed power, per Baseball Savant, and you can see why it is appealing for Ozuna to hit a home run here, even at (+300) odds.
Juan Soto OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+320 DraftKings)
Insurance runs, anyone?
Juan Soto has his first 3-RBI game in a Mets uniform! pic.twitter.com/IgN6M0rYVV
— MLB (@MLB) April 20, 2025
Juan Soto has gotten off to a slow start with the Mets, putting up a .256/.385/.436 slash with three home runs in 96 plate appearances. But today feels like a good spot to target him to hit a home run.
The Mets' superstar is showing signs of getting back on track, going 5-for-10 with six total bases in his last three games. If we look at Soto's xwOBA rolling average (last 100 PA) on his Baseball Savant player page, we see that it's well above league average, so the quality of contact is there.
While the matchup on paper vs. Phillies righty Aaron Nola looks tough, there are reasons for optimism. For one, Nola has struggled so far, putting up a 1.66 HR/9 -- including a .410 wOBA to lefties. Secondly, Soto has had success against Nola, homering three times with a .485 xwOBA in 51 plate appearances.
Even in a pitcher's park like Citi Field, I'm willing to take a shot on Soto here.
We all know what Soto is capable of in the power department -- this is a hitter who went yard 76 times in the last two seasons. Given his recent performance along with the matchup vs Nola, we'll ride with Soto to hit his fourth homer of the year.
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Featured Promo: Get any Betting Premium Pass for 50% off using code SUMMER. Win more with exclusive betting picks from proven winners across 9 sports! Find optimal bets with our Betting Picks Tool and Bet Weighting Tool and follow along in our VIP chat rooms! Go Premium, Win More!Spencer Torkelson OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+500 DraftKings)
Spencer Torkelson breakout szn
▫️7 HR
▫️.289 AVG
▫️21 RBI
▫️1.043 OPS(via @tigers)pic.twitter.com/sIeQn3Wg5h
— FOX Sports: MLB (@MLBONFOX) April 19, 2025
Spencer Torkelson looks like he's finally breaking out, slashing .288/.392/.638 with seven home runs in 97 plate appearances. The Tigers' first baseman has homered twice in his last five games.
What's intriguing so far is that Torkelson has increased his barrel rate from 6.7 to 16.4 percent while showing improved plate discipline, including an increase in walk rate from 8.7 to 13.4 percent.
Up next is a matchup vs Randy Vasquez. Don't be fooled by his 1.74 ERA, as this is a pitcher who gives up a lot of hard contact, as highlighted by his 5.71 xERA. Vasquez has allowed a 9.4 percent barrel rate, which ranks in the 40th percentile.
It's also worth noting that Torkelson has had success vs the Padres righty, albeit in a small sample, homering once in two plate appearances. However, if we examine Vasquez's pitch mix, we see that more success may be in store for Torkelson.
Vasquez has allowed a .477 xwOBA on his cutter, while Torkelson has registered a .421 xwOBA against that pitch. Let's ride the wave on Torkelson to hit his eighth homer in what looks like a breakout season.
Elly De La Cruz OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+550 DraftKings)
And now Elly De La Cruz HOMERS! https://t.co/WXx2HX6x6l pic.twitter.com/2Qr4pegU0W
— MLB (@MLB) April 20, 2025
Elly De La Cruz has five home runs in 96 plate appearances so far, but you have to love the quality of contact, featuring a 19.3 percent barrel rate that ranks in the 94th percentile.
While the pitching environment isn't great in a pitcher-friendly environment in Miami, Elly has started to get rolling lately, going 5-for-13 with two home runs in his last three games.
It's also encouraging that the Reds' star infielder has had success against Max Meyer, going 3-for-3 with two doubles, including a .712 xwOBA. While Meyer looks like a much-improved pitcher this year, it's worth pointing out this batter-vs-pitcher data, especially when Elly is on a hot streak.
We should also point out that Meyer has given up a 1.23 HR/9 vs lefties (0.96 HR/9 vs righties).
You also have to love the (+550) price on a red-hot hitter who has 30+ home run upside. Given that value, it's worth it to take a shot on De La Cruz to hit his sixth homer of the season.
George Springer OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+800 DraftKings)
It's cold outside, get George Springer the HR jacket! pic.twitter.com/oWWHNjkT8U
— MLB (@MLB) April 9, 2025
George Springer is in the middle of a bounce-back season, slashing .344/.414/.557 with two home runs in 71 plate appearances. We're seeing Springer crush the ball this year, as highlighted by a 17.8 percent barrel rate, a significant increase from last year's 9.0 percent.
The matchup looks tough on paper vs. Hunter Brown, who has a 1.50 ERA on the season, but Springer has had some success against the Astros righty, homering once with a .456 xwOBA in six plate appearances.
While this is obviously a small sample, when you combine that with Springer's improvements at the plate this year, you come away loving the value at (+800) odds.
It's also of note to point out that Daikin Park is favorable for right-handed power, ranking 12th over a three-year rolling average, per Baseball Savant.
As a former Astro, Springer is familiar with this environment, so we could see him make an effort to pull the ball and take advantage of the Crawford boxes in left field. Let's take a shot on the Blue Jays veteran to hit his third long ball of the year against his former team.
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