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Thunder Dan's best MLB player prop bets for today (4/19/2025). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props.
Our home run prop picks have been running hot with at least one correct pick in every edition so far! We even had two of four picks hit on Thursday, when my buddy Casey Wilson correctly called bombs from Gunnar Henderson and Corey Seager.
To be completely transparent, I bet home run props mainly for fun, as they are much tougher to predict than other player props. But they are also more rewarding, with better odds and arguably the most exciting bets to watch cash if you get to watch the slugger you wagered on go yard! Strikeout props are where my bread is buttered, but home run props are a fun dessert that should be sprinkled into your betting card sparingly and a tiny overall percentage of your daily bankroll wagered.
In this article, I'll provide my favorite prop bets for the MLB games on Saturday, April 19, 2025. All odds are from either DraftKings or FanDuel sportsbooks, but I encourage you to shop for the best price with other books.
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MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks
Here are the hitters I'll cover for Saturday, April 19:
- Ozzie Albies, Atlanta Braves
- Oneil Cruz, Pittsburgh Pirates
- Luke Raley, Seattle Mariners
- Christian Yelich, Milwaukee Brewers
- James Wood, Washington Nationals
Ozzie Albies OVER 0.5 home runs (+750 DraftKings)
The theme today is lefties with big platoon splits and great odds! My first pitcher to go after today is Simeon Woods Richardson. The Twins' righty has some very poor batted ball metrics to start the season.
Woods Richardson checks in with an xERA of 5.80 and a slate-high 22% barrel rate. He also has a 50% hard-hit rate and a 91.5% Z-Contact%. In my estimation, he's been pretty lucky so far to have not been blown up, and perhaps he can skate by against the Braves today, as they were unable to hit another poor pitcher in Chris Paddack yesterday.
But one Atlanta hitter who isn't cold is Albies. He had two more hits last night and has three home runs over the last week. His .528 SLG against RHP this season is second only to Sean Murphy. This park in Atlanta plays well for left-handed power, and Albies has a lot of pop in his bat. These odds are incredible, and a home run from Albies would put us easily in the green, even if the rest of the squad fails to go yard.
Oneil Cruz OVER 0.5 home runs (+425 DraftKings)
Some guys like playing the hot hand and others will tell you that it's a trap and not to get sucked into chasing hot streaks. I do think that streaks are a legitimate part of baseball and that we can ride them or fade cold hitters in DFS and sports betting.
Cruz is officially hot with a home run in three straight games. The last two have both come in his first at-bat of the game.
Oneil Cruz hits a leadoff homer for a second straight game! pic.twitter.com/WTkX7bl9Xa
— MLB (@MLB) April 18, 2025
The Pirates' slugger is now up to five bombs on the year. So these odds over +400 are a bit surprising, especially considering the matchup he has today against Ben Lively. Like a lot of power hitters, Cruz has a high K% at 29%, but I love targeting big swingers against pitchers with high contact rates. Lively has just an 8% SwStr% and 19% K%.
Cruz has incredible bat speed that allows him to drill the baseball even when he doesn't square it up perfectly. With a short porch in right field at PNC Park, it's hard not to like Cruz's chances of keeping his streak going and taking Lively or a reliever deep today.
Luke Raley OVER 0.5 home runs (+500 DraftKings)
Another pitcher I want to target today is Jose Berrios. The Toronto veteran has struggled badly with left-handed hitters during his career and is not the pitcher at this stage in his career that he once was in Minnesota or even his first season in Toronto.
The Mariners can throw a lot of lefties at Berrios today, and my first choice would be the red-hot Cal Raleigh. However, as usual, I am hunting for value, and Raleigh's odds are significantly shorter.
The BvP hunters will notice that Rowdy Tellez has two home runs off Berrios, and he also went yard yesterday for Seattle. But Rowdy also strikes out a lot, and (this part is nonsensical) I feel like chasing Rowdy's BvP and recent HR is a trap because Luke Raley is arguably a better hitter in every way. If I clicked on Rowdy today, then Raley would have homered, and I would not have been able to forgive myself.
So let's hope the opposite doesn't happen and Rowdy steals Raley's home run. Heck, just bet them both if you want. But all I know is that these big lefties have a ton of power in their ba,t and Berrios has the fourth-worst barrel% on the slate at 13.8%
Someone from Seattle is going deep, whether it's Raleigh, Rowdy, or Raley.
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Christian Yelich OVER 0.5 home runs (+520 FanDuel)
Next up on our list of pitchers to attack is Luis Severino. The former Yankee and Met has not been very good for the Athletics this season. While his barrel% is low, he is sporting a 47% hard-hit rate and an ugly 5.20 xERA. He's not striking guys out either, at just 19.8% with a paltry 7.4% SwStr% and 91.3% Z-Contact%.
Severino has continued to transition to a sinker/slider pitcher and is throwing fewer four-seamers than ever before. That helps him keep the ball down and in the yard. But it's going to be a problem today when he faces Christian Yelich, Brice Turang, and Sal Frelick.
Milwaukee's lefties love to tee off on sinkers, especially Yelich, who has spectacular numbers in his career against the pitch. Yelich has an elite launch angle that allows his to go down and get pitches low in the zone. His swing is perfectly crafted to attack righties who try to pound him down and in. If Sevvy is going to throw him sinkers and sliders today, he better not make a mistake and leave one where Yelich can lift it into the right field stands. Wait, I hope DOES do that so we can cash this prop at amazing odds!
James Wood OVER 0.5 home runs (+550 DraftKings)
The weather in Colorado is dicey today as it's cold, and last night's game was snowed out. That cold weather is the only thing I can think of that is suppressing these home run odds as James Wood has the worst odds of any player in this game at +550.
James Wood even leaves the opposing broadcast in shock with his power! pic.twitter.com/uAGu08ZG8w
— MLB (@MLB) April 12, 2025
I'm willing to take a shot on Wood here for a few reasons. For one, he has incredible raw power that has been on display since his call-up last year. In the clip above, he fights off a pitch and accidentally drives it to the opposite field gap for a home run. When he does actually square up a pitch and pulls it, he can hit 500+ feet. Just go watch some of his minor league home run highlights.
The other thing in Wood's favor is the matchup with rookie Chase Dollander. While I like Dollander a lot and I think he's shown some great strikeout chops, he's also been hit hard in his first two starts and has a massive 21% barrel%. Wood loves to sit dead red on the fastball (as many hitters do), and Dollander throws his a ton. If Wood can make quality contact with a Dollander fastball, that thing might go 600 feet in the thin mountain air, I don't care if it is 35 degrees!
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