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Scott Cullen provides his MLB DFS prop picks for May 4th, 2021 on Monkey Knife Fight. Make your DFS picks with his fantasy baseball advice.
Tuesday brings a full slate of games in Major League Baseball, with a couple of double-headers running the total to 17 games! Monkey Knife Fight is there with contests for all to make the games even more fun and profitable!
The Colorado Rockies have a pair of games at home against the San Francisco Giants while the Chicago Cubs host a double-dip against the Los Angeles Dodgers.
At first glance, it does not appear to be a day with any ace matchups. The Dodgers are sending Clayton Kershaw against Kyle Hendricks of the Cubs and, usually, that might qualify but Hendricks has struggled in 2021.
There are a lot of unproven starters taking the bump Tuesday and that might offer some hope for value. Here are some to keep an eye on:
- Arizona’s Riley Smith has two career starts going into today’s game at Miami.
- The Cubs’ Keegan Thompson is scheduled to make his first MLB start in the second game against the Dodgers.
- Cleveland’s Sam Hentges is making his first start against Kansas City.
- Tampa Bay’s Shane McClanahan is making his second career start at the L.A. Angels.
- Toronto’s Anthony Kay will make his fourth career start at Oakland.
Here are some more angles to consider when playing Tuesday’s MLB Star Shootout action on Monkey Knife Fight.
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STAR SHOOTOUT - MAIN GAMES
MORE OR LESS
Jacob deGrom LESS THAN 10.5 STRIKEOUTS
The Mets ace is awesome and has been ridiculous early in the season, recording a 0.51 ERA and 0.57 WHIP with 59 strikeouts in 35 innings. He has three games with at least 14 strikeouts! And yet, he if facing a Houston Astros lineup that has the lowest road strikeout rate (19.9%) in MLB this season so maybe banking on 11 or more is even too much to ask of deGrom.
Aaron Nola LESS THAN 7.5 STRIKEOUTS
As impressive as Nola has been early in this season, he has put up eight or more strikeouts just once in six starts. He does have the benefit of going against a Milwaukee Brewers lineup that has the second highest road strikeout rate (29.2%) in MLB so that might make the calculation closer but not by enough to swing the pendulum in the other direction.
Ronald Acuna Jr. LESS THAN 1.5 RUNS + RBI
Since returning from a short-term injury, Acuna is 6-for-34 at the plate with nine combined runs plus RBI in 10 games. He still has great numbers overall but he might not be at the peak of his powers right now.
Xander Bogaerts MORE THAN 1.5 TOTAL BASES
While there are some angles to suggest that Bogaerts’ production is not sustainable over the long haul, he does have a .600 slugging percentage against right-handed pitching (Michael Fulmer starts for Detroit against Boston) and a .600 slugging percentage at home. Provided he gets at least four at-bats, that suggests that multiple bases should be in play for the Red Sox shortstop.
Nick Pivetta MORE THAN 5.5 STRIKEOUTS
Pivetta has had some early success with the Red Sox and has 25 strikeouts in 25 2/3 innings. The main reason to like him Tuesday, though, is that he goes against a Detroit Tigers lineup that has the highest road strikeout rate (32.1%) in MLB.
STAR SHOOTOUT - LATE GAMES
MORE OR LESS
Mike Minor MORE THAN 4.5 STRIKEOUTS
The Royals lefty has had some ups and downs early in the season but has struck out 27 in 25 2/3 innings. He goes against a Cleveland lineup that has lower than average strikeout rates on the road and against left-handed pitching.
Jose Ramirez LESS THAN 1.5 TOTAL BASES
Although the Cleveland third baseman has had similar results against left and right-handed pitching for his career, he is slugging just .368 against left-handed pitching this season so maybe recent results nudge this to the lower side.
Carlos Santana MORE THAN 1.5 HITS + WALKS
If Santana has a strength above all others it is his ability to get on base and this season has been better than most in his career. He has a .424 on-base percentage against left-handed pitching and a .433 on-base percentage at home this season so facing Cleveland’s young southpaw Sam Hentges seems like a favorable matchup.
STAR SHOOTOUT - NIGHT GAMES
MORE OR LESS
Bo Bichette LESS THAN 1.5 TOTAL BASES
While the Blue Jays shortstop has quality numbers overall and is slugging .579 against left-handed pitching (Oakland sends LHP Cole Irvin to the mound), he is slugging just .349 away from Dunedin this season.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. LESS THAN 1.5 RUNS + RBI
Vladdy has been crushing the ball this season and yet has a total of 16 runs plus RBI in 16 road games this season. Sure, he could take A’s starter Cole Irvin deep and get multiple runs plus RBI in one swing of the bat but that is not the most likely outcome.
RAPID FIRE
Mike Trout -0.5 MKF fantasy points vs. Randy Arozarena
Trout is rocking a 1.274 OPS so far this season, superstar numbers at the very top of MLB, while Arozarena has a mediocre .740 OPS. Naturally Trout is favored in this matchup and might deserve to be favored by more.
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