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Joe Williams' MLB betting picks for 8/20/19. He analyzes Vegas lines and recommends the top expert bets for today's MLB slate including money-lines, spreads and totals.
Welcome to the Tuesday, Aug. 20th edition of RotoBaller's MLB Betting Picks. I will be serving up some of my top options on today's 15 game slate.
- Last Tuesday's Picks: 2-2 (50.0%) -20
- Year-to-Date: 37-25 (59.7%) +967
In this article, we will dive into the numbers and pick out my top recommended betting picks for today's slate. Feel free to contact me on Twitter @JoeWilliamsVI if you have any questions or if you'd like additional content and occasional gambling notes and tidbits.
Here are my picks for Tuesday, Aug. 20th. Be sure to check out all the MLB Betting System and MLB Depth Charts for today's slate. Good luck!
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Cleveland Indians @ New York Mets (+145)
O/U: 8.5
The Mets are a tremendous value at home, even though they're facing Indians RHP Shane Bieber, the 2019 All-Star Game MVP. On paper, a matchup against LHP Steven Matz appears to be in favor of the Tribe.
The Indians have cashed in 16 of the past 21 road outings, while going 16-5 in the past 21 in Game 1 of a new series. They're also 20-8 in the past 28 against a left-handed starting pitcher while going 5-2 in the past seven on the road vs. LHP. They're also 7-1 in the past eight interleague road contests.
However, the Mets have also been hot, going 10-1 in the past 11 games at Citi Field, while going 6-0 in the past six interleague games vs. RHP. They're also 22-5 in the past 27 games overall against a right-handed starting pitcher. The Mets have won nine of the past 11 at home by Matz, while going 6-2 in his past eight while working on five days of rest. Matz is 7-7 with a 4.33 ERA overall, but he has been sharp at home. He is 5-0 with a 2.14 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in 54 2/3 innings at home. As such, the Mets are worth a look as short 'dogs at home.
My Pick: Mets (+145)
Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks (-150)
O/U: 10
The Rockies use LHP Kyle Freeland on the road against the Diamondbacks. The Denver native has really struggled for his hometown team, going 3-10 with a 7.09 ERA and .357 opponent on-base percentage across 94 innings. He was fair last time out against Arizona, allowing five earned runs, eight hits and a walk with two homers allowed over six innings in a no-decision at Coors Field on Aug. 14. He also allowed five earned runs, seven hits and two homers in just three innings on May 30 against the Snakes. Anyway, you get the picture. Take the Diamondbacks in this one, and go with the parlay by taking the over.
My Pick: Diamondbacks (-150, OVER 10 runs)
Toronto Blue Jays @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-305)
O/U: 8.5
The Blue Jays have had a very difficult time over the past couple of seasons against left-handed starting pitchers, and it's hard to imagine they'll be able to improve against one of the best in the business.
Toronto rolls out RHP Sean Reid-Foley against LHP Clayton Kershaw in a huge mismatch. Rather than eating the chalk, though, you're going to want to take the home side on the run line for much less risk and a better return.
While the Jays have won seven of their past 10 on the road, and they're 5-1 in the past six in Game 1 of a new series, they're just 26-54 in the past 80 vs. LHP, including 13-32 in the past 45 on the road against southpaws. They're also 0-6 in the past six interleague games, and 2-12 in the past 14 against the NL West.
L.A. has posted a ridiculous 42-9 record over the past 51 at home vs. RHP, and they're 43-12 in the past 55 overall at Dodger Stadium. They're also 44-10 in Kershaw's past 54 starts at home, and 42-16 in the his past 58 against losing teams.
My Pick: Dodgers (-1.5, -150)
