Lies, Damned Lies, and Fantasy Statistics - Fantasy Points Per Game

November 20, 2020

Pierre Camus dives into misleading fantasy football statistics based on small sample size, schedule quirks, outlier performances, or other factors to help fantasy GMs find streamers to target or avoid and make smart lineup decisions for Week 11.

When you think about it, all the advanced stats we use to evaluate players such as air yards, red-zone targets, missed tackles forced, and a bevy of others are a convoluted way of arriving at the same endpoint. We want to know how many fantasy points we can expect from a player, regardless of how he got there.

This is an imperfect science to be sure. After all, none of us can be so fortunate as Biff from Back to the Future II. So to predict the future, we must learn from the past. Do we need all those fancy, often misleading statistics? We're 10 weeks into the season, so why not just look at how many points a player earns on average and adjust accordingly by opponent? Turns out even the simplest of statistics can lie to us. Go figure.

Not all advanced metrics are meaningful and some can be downright deceptive. My goal is to point out potential outliers that could steer you wrong when making key lineup decisions for Week 11 and beyond in this weekly series.

Fantasy Points Per Game

There's little to explain here except to say that I will focus on Half-PPR scoring. Not because it is necessarily the most common or preferred method of playing fantasy football, it's just the midpoint between those who do full PPR and standard and gives the least skewed data set.

The fantasy game is all about collecting points but is it better to have a player who collects them in bunches or spreads them out evenly across each game? This is the old floor vs. ceiling debate which will not be answered in this space. Consistency is a concept we've covered in the past to help make informed weekly decisions. While I personally find the topic fascinating, it doesn't always lead to actionable advice. Being consistent isn't necessarily beneficial in and of itself. As usual, I will pick some outliers of note in an otherwise rote stat category to help clear things up.

Ronald Jones (RB, TB)

12.8 FPPG (RB18)

RoJo is the best recent example of how stats skew heavily based on one game. His career-best (by a long shot) 192-yard Week 10 in Carolina was a major boost to his season-long fantasy value after three straight games under 35 yards rushing. In fact, many a fantasy GM were likely cursing him on the bench racking up those points, as it seemed that Leonard Fournette was taking over the starting job. So, naturally, Jones broke out.

Jones has been extremely valuable in four games this season with 100+ yards and a disappointment in six others with under 10 fantasy points, with no gap in between.

Despite being a top-20 fantasy RB even in PPR leagues, he ranks 88th in Fantasy Points Over Expectation per Game. That would make him the most volatile running back that is actually playable on a week-to-week basis. He's basically a lit stick of dynamite on your roster ready to either explode or fizzle out. The Panthers presented a great matchup based on their porous run defense but the Rams will be just the opposite.

Jones can't be considered a set-and-forget RB2 each week so play him based on matchup and projected game script. In games where the Bucs have fallen behind early, it's often Fournette who comes in for pass-catching situations and gets the bulk of the snaps. His remaining schedule has some drastic fluctuations in terms of run defense faced, so plan ahead now especially since Tampa Bay is yet to have their bye.

Here's a quick look at his remaining games and matchups based on the opponent's run defense.

Week 11 vs Rams  ⛔️
Week 12 vs Chiefs ✅
Week 13 BYE
Week 14 vs Vikings ⛔️
Week 15 @ Falcons ⛔️
Week 16 @ Lions ✅
Week 17 @ Falcons ⛔️

D.J. Chark (WR, JAX)

13.7 FPPG (WR31)

The trajectory of Chark's season has taken a sharp turn downward but it didn't coincide with Jake Luton taking over. Of course, that certainly hasn't helped things either.

DJ Chark only went 4-56-0 against a tough Packers secondary, but he could've had a much bigger day.

Luton's arm unfortunately just couldn't keep up with the 4.34 speed. pic.twitter.com/puV2m4uP9D

— Cole Topham (@HamAnalysis) November 17, 2020

Chark was able to make a splash play in Week 9 against the Texans, one of the lesser pass defenses in the league, but came up short of fantasy prominence in Week 10 against the Packers despite Jaire Alexander missing the game. It's clear that Luton isn't the answer at QB and Gardner Minshew likely isn't either. This team may very well begin (continue?) the process of Tanking for Trevor, more likely Justin Fields though.

Chark has lit up the fantasy scoreboard twice this season but both came against inferior opponents with a combined record of 4-13-1. Although they will technically be underdogs in every game they play from here on out, the defensive matchups won't do much favor for Chark. It looks good in the short term but he'll be stuck with Luton for at least another week, likely longer, and as such will be dependent on a touchdown or big play to make any fantasy waves.

Chark's remaining schedule and defensive matchups, including a brutal final three weeks.

Week 11 vs Steelers ✅
Week 12 vs Browns ✅
Week 13 @ Vikings ✅
Week 14 vs Titans ✅
Week 15 @ Ravens ⛔️
Week 16 vs Bears ⛔️
Week 17 @ Colts ⛔️

Cole Beasley (WR, BUF)

10.9 FPPG (WR36)

Typically, a diminutive slot receiver competing for targets with two dynamic wideouts would be a steady but not explosive source of receiving yards. Nope, not Cole Beasley. He's been the boom-bust play in Buffalo, leaving fantasy GMs confused more often than not.

Judging by the WR36 standing in fantasy, Beasley should be a solid WR3 but he feels far from that. Beasley has hit the 100-yard mark three times this season and caught 11 passes in two of those games, making for a top-10 fantasy finish. Yet in four other games, he was held under 50 yards and five receptions, including the Week 9 matchup with Seattle, a historically bad pass defense that should have been a smash spot.

Part of this can be explained by John Brown's yo-yo act in and out of the lineup. He missed Week 7, which was one of Beasley's big games with 11 catches for 112 yards. In that Week 9 game when Beasley let down against Seattle, it was Brown's turn to go off with eight receptions for 99 yards in his season-best performance. It's safe to say that if Brown misses time again, Beasley is someone to plug into lineups as a high-end WR3 for PPR leagues.

Josh Allen has been peppering Stefon Diggs with passes every game, which is why he is the league leader in both targets and receptions after 10 weeks, but he's picking between Brown or Beasley on a given week based on game flow. Rather than looking at pass defense alone, it's better to focus on defensive performance vs slot receivers to see if Beasley has a good shot of outproducing Brown.

PPR points/target allowed to WIDE RECEIVERS lined up in the slot

(data courtesy of @SportsInfo_SIS)

Most

NE - 2.29
MIN - 2.26
HOU - 2.20
NO - 2.10
DAL, PIT - 2.02

Fewest

CHI - 1.56
DEN, BUF - 1.58
WAS - 1.61
BAL - 1.62

— TJ Hernandez (@TJHernandez) November 19, 2020

It's mostly favorable, especially now that the Chargers have traded Desmond King. The Patriots are giving up the most points per target to slot receivers this season so he's a great start in championship week.

Week 11 BYE
Week 12 vs Chargers ✅
Week 13 @ 49ers ⛔️
Week 14 vs Steelers ✅
Week 15 @ Broncos ⛔️
Week 16 vs Patriots ✅
Week 17 vs Dolphins ⛔️

Deshaun Watson (QB, HOU)

24.2 FPPG (QB8)

The troubles in Houston, thanks to now-deposed GM and Head Coach Bill O'Brien, are well known. Watson is a franchise QB whose prime may be wasted due to a number of disastrous moves, including the trade of DeAndre Hopkins who is proving that he is indeed the best receiver in the league. Did Hopkins make Watson? I wouldn't go that far but it's obvious that this offense isn't as good without him.

Watson may be missing his top target but he still has weapons at his disposal in Will Fuller, Brandin Cooks, and Randall Cobb. For a while, he was thriving with a four-game streak of 300-yard passing games and 11 passing TD between Weeks 4-7. That now appears to have been a function of a soft spot in the schedule as he faced the Jaguars Defense, Vikings Defense, and Titans Defense, all of which are in the bottom-10 in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. He's fallen down to earth recently. Say what you will about David Johnson but his loss doesn't help things either.

The linear graph of Watson's passing yardage resembles a steep hill similar to that which Sisyphus must ascend and descend ceaselessly. When looking at his Fantasy Points Over Expectation, it's actually grimmer.

It's fair to say without Jacksonville on the schedule, Watson would be a downright bust. Here's the bad news: not only are they done with the Jags, Watson faces one of the toughest schedules out of any quarterback for the remainder of the season. Trade deadlines are gone in many leagues but those who've relied on Watson as a starter may want to consider adding a high-end backup based on these matchups.

Detroit is the only favorable matchup on paper but they've only allowed two teams to pass for more than 270 yards this season; most of the damage has come from allowing passing touchdowns in the red zone. If you can make it to the championship game in Week 16 or 17, then you can finally feel good about plugging Watson back in.

Week 11 vs Patriots ⛔️
Week 12 @ Lions ✅
Week 13 vs Colts ⛔️
Week 14 @ Bears ⛔️
Week 15 @ Colts ⛔️
Week 16 vs Bengals ✅
Week 17 vs Titans ✅

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