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Midseason Mea Culpas

At the season's halfway mark, Kyle Bishop faces the music on some of his worst pieces of preseason advice in this week's edition of The Friday Meta.

Anyone who has read my work already knows this, but I've never been fully comfortable with the term "expert."

Why? The universe is chaos, especially when it comes to the weighted random number generators that we call sports. The few who are able to make a living as sports bettors still typically aren't much more accurate than simply flipping a coin. This isn't false modesty - I do consider myself good at the game and good at writing about it, at least to the level where I've managed to get paid to do so for half a decade. It's just the truth. We are all guessing at the end of the day; my guesses are simply more educated than most.

But when you spend hours every week dispensing advice about a game that displays only occasional adherence to rhyme or reason, being wrong is inevitable. With the All-Star break approaching, let's look back at some of my worst calls this spring and try to learn from the experience.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Players I Liked Too Much

Adam Frazier, 2B/OF, Pittsburgh Pirates

What I said: "After three seasons as a utility player, Frazier is finally getting a shot at everyday at-bats in Pittsburgh...[a] plus average, double digits in HR/SB, and 80+ runs scored are all realistic possibilities. He deserves a look at the end of many drafts."

What's actually happened: Frazier is indeed around an 80-run pace because he has managed to stick in the leadoff spot for the majority of the season. The pop and speed haven't really been there, though, as he's hit just four home runs and stolen only three bases in five attempts. And .275 isn't a bad batting average at all, but it won't move the needle much for fantasy squads.

Chances this might pan out anyway: Frazier hasn't been bad, and could still hit all these benchmarks with a few modest hot streaks. But he's also seen less and less time as the leadoff man in recent weeks, and simply isn't that dynamic of a player. (Okay, but nobody expected much of Frazier. This one isn't that bad. Let's get serious.)

Joey Votto, 1B, Cincinnati Reds

What I said: "I may be in the minority here, but I expect Votto to bounce back to pretty much where he had been [before 2018]. For 2019, I might actually prefer him to Cody Bellinger." Oof...yeah, that's the good stuff.

What's actually happened: We all know how fantastic Bellinger has been. Unfortunately, Votto has much more closely resembled the 2018 model than the hitting machine he used to be. Not only has his power remained depressed, he's on track for the worst batting average and highest strikeout rate of his career.

Chances this might pan out anyway: To be fair, Votto has shown some signs of life recently as he hit .299/.390/.506 in June. However, even that surge has left him with a .271/.366/.416 overall line. If he can keep it going, the end-of-year numbers may wind up respectable, even good. But he won't return a profit on his draft price, and he damn sure isn't going to be better than Bellinger.

Yu Darvish, SP, Chicago Cubs

What I said: "Very surprised at how little love Darvish [is] getting based on early ADP. Fairly high on him...great rebound candidate. Would be comfortable with him as a #3, could be a #2."

What's actually happened: Darvish was never a control artist in the best of times, but he couldn't buy a strike for the first six weeks of the season. He walked seven in his debut and six in a May 9 start against the friggin' Marlins, who rank dead last in walk rate at present. Over that span of eight starts, he issued an astounding 33 free passes in 36 innings.

Chances this might pan out anyway: Darvish has gotten it together with just 16 walks in his last 60 frames, and he continues to rack up strikeouts. Unfortunately, what has also continued is his inability to prevent home runs; despite a career best ground ball rate, he's allowing 1.9 HR/9 after clocking in at 1.3 and 1.6 the prior two seasons. Gonna go ahead and say he's probably not opting out of his contract after the season.

 

Players I Didn't Like Enough

Josh Bell, 1B, Pittsburgh Pirates

What I said: I can't actually find a single instance of me discussing Bell this spring, either in columns or the weekly Monday AMA on Reddit. That's how little I thought of the guy.

What's actually happened: Only four hitters in MLB have a higher weighted on-base average than Bell - Bellinger, Mike Trout, Christian Yelich, and Charlie Blackmon. The Pirates' slugger ranks fourth in the league with 26 homers, which is already tied for his career high in just 84 games. He leads baseball with 81 RBI, and his 67 runs scored is tied for third. Oh, and he's also hitting over .300, no big deal.

Chances this might pan out anyway: Unless Bell is stricken by whatever mysterious ailment has caused Jose Ramirez to turn into a scrub, this will stand as an egregious oversight. Hell, it still might even then.

Fernando Tatis Jr., SS, San Diego Padres

What I said: "The power and speed are legitimate, though the average shouldn't be counted upon given the high strikeout rates he has routinely run in the minor leagues. I don't think he'll be up before Super 2."

What's actually happened: Tatis broke camp with the Padres and, despite missing over a month with a hamstring injury, has produced 12 homers, 13 steals, and a 1.006 OPS. Were it not for Pete Alonso, he'd be the clear favorite for top rookie honors in the National League.

Chances this might pan out anyway: This one might actually turn. Tatis is almost certainly not going to keep running a BABIP well over .400 or keep hitting homers on nearly 30 percent of his fly balls, and as great as he's been so far, he's still striking out a ton. The usual concerns with rookies - pitchers making adjustments, the grind of a longer season than they're used to - are present as well. Like everyone else, I had no qualms about Tatis long-term - I just didn't see this explosion coming this soon, and at the risk of further egg on my face, am expecting a second-half fade.

 

The Friday Meta is Kyle Bishop's attempt to go beyond the fantasy box score or simple strategic pointers and get at the philosophical and/or behavioral side of the game. It is hopefully not as absurd, pretentious, or absurdly pretentious as that sounds.

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REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Nolan Arenado

Ready for Second Half
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Eugenio Suarez Back in Action to Begin Second Half
Yordan Alvarez

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Jake Burger

to Miss an Additional 2-3 Weeks
TreVeyon Henderson

Signs Rookie Contract
Christian Watson

Goes on PUP List
Austin Riley

Hopes to be Activated Next Week
Ketel Marte

Lands on Restricted List After Burglary
Ricky Pearsall

Heads to PUP List
Brandon Aiyuk

Placed on PUP List
Luther Burden III

Signs Rookie Deal
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Eli Willits Expected to Sign Contract on Saturday
Grayson Rodriguez

Being Shut Down Again - Will We See Him Again This Year?
Ezequiel Tovar

Activated and Back in Lineup on Friday
Max Fried

"Hopeful" to Pitch Next Week - Looks Like He'll Avoid IL Stint
Steven Kwan

Receives Injection in Wrist, Considered Day-to-Day
CJ Abrams

Back to Start Second Half
Alec Bohm

Back From Rib Injury on Friday
Trey Hendrickson

Holdout to Spill into Regular Season?
Jalen McMillan

Bucs Offensive Coordinator Not Forgetting About Jalen McMillan
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Luis L. Ortiz

to Remain on Leave for Another Month - Will he Pitch Again?
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Looks For Third Win In A Row
Kevin Holland

Set For His Fourth Fight This Year
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Patricio Freire Set For His Second UFC Fight
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Set To Open Up UFC 318 Main Card
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Looks For Third Consecutive Win
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Yegor Chinakhov

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Maple Leafs Acquire Dakota Joshua
Lukas Dostal

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Shemar Stewart

Not Practicing With College Team
Eugenio Suárez

Eugenio Suarez Expected Back Friday
Damian Lillard

Returning to Portland
Paul Skenes

Pirates Could Preserve Paul Skenes in Second Half
Brooks Barnhizer

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Jeremiah Fears

Scores 22 Points in Summer League Loss to Thunder
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Collects 17 Points In Summer League Win
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Erupts for 25 Points in Summer League Loss
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Leaky Black Logs Double-Double in Loss to Jazz
Connor Norby

Undergoes Surgery, Expected to Miss 6-8 Weeks
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Tallies 25 Points in Losing Effort
Johni Broome

Records Second Consecutive Double-Double
Jahmir Young

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Rob Dillingham

Plays Big Role in Wednesday's Win
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Erupts for 35 Points Against Kings
Cody Williams

Leads Jazz to Victory Against Wizards
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Mavs Not Interested in "Gutting its Roster" For LeBron James
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Undergoes a Procedure on Right Finger
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Goes on 10-Day Injured List With Quad Strain
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Dealing With Grade 1 Hamstring Strain, TBD for Start of Second Half
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Bradley Beal Heading to Los Angeles to Join Clippers After Contract Buyout
Rayan Rupert

Scores 24 Points in Summer League Win
Derik Queen

Collects Third Consecutive Double-Double in Summer League Loss
GG Jackson II

Records 13 Points in Summer League Action on Tuesday
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Logs Double-Double Against Wizards
DaRon Holmes II

Records Double-Double in Summer League Loss to Raptors
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Takes Stellar 2025 Performance to The Open Championship
Aldrich Potgieter

Seeks Better Result in Northern Ireland
Cameron Young

Likely to Hang Around at The Open Championship
Cameron Smith

Just Trying to Make the Cut at Royal Portrush
Jordan Spieth

Is Jordan Spieth Still a Natural for Links Style Golf?
Patrick Reed

a Viable Option at The Open Championship
PGA

Sungjae Im Wants to Rebound from Last Experience at Royal Portrush
Xander Schauffele

Looks to Defend His Claret Jug at Royal Portrush
Tony Finau

Trying to Turn Tide at Royal Portrush
Daniel Brown

Seeks a Rebound at The Open Championship
Rory McIlroy

Will be the Most Watched Player This Week at Royal Portrush
Daniel Berger

Trending Poorly as The Open Championship Looms
Robert MacIntyre

Hoping to Bounce Back at Open Championship
Shane Lowry

Hopes to Repeat at Royal Portrush
Brian Harman

Hopes to Rekindle Some Magic at the 153rd Open
UTA

Michael Carcone Returns to Utah on One-Year Contract
Bowen Byram

Signs Two-Year Deal with Sabres
Morgan Barron

Jets Re-Sign Morgan Barron for Two Years
PGA

Chris Gotterup Punches Ticket to Royal Portrush With Win at Scottish Open
Bryson DeChambeau

Hopes to Reverse Links Golf Struggle at the 153rd Open
Keegan Bradley

Needs to Find The Weekend at Royal Portrush for Ryder Cup Hopes
Justin Thomas

Finishes Tied For 22nd at Genesis Scottish Open
Scottie Scheffler

Finishes Tied For Eighth at Genesis Scottish Open
Jon Rahm

Finishes in Second at LIV Andalucia
Tallison Teixeira

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Derrick Lewis

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Stephen Thompson

Loses Controversial Split Decision
Gabriel Bonfim

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Calvin Kattar

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Steve Garcia

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Nate Landwehr

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Morgan Charrière

Morgan Charriere Scores Third-Round Knockout
Austen Lane

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Chase Elliott

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Finishes Second With his First Career Road-Course Top-Five at Sonoma
Christopher Bell

Rollercoaster Day Ends With Top-5 Finish at Sonoma
William Byron

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Kyle Busch

Earns A Hard-Fought Top-10 Finish At Sonoma
Alex Ovechkin

Not Thinking About Retirement
PIT

Penguins Acquire Arturs Silovs
NHL

Nikolai Kovalenko Returns to Russia
Tyler Reddick

Evades Near Upset to Remain Alive in In-Season Challenge
Ty Gibbs

One of Three Tylers to Make In-Season Challenge Semifinals
Kyle Larson

Curiously Mediocre at Sonoma Before Late-Race Crash
NASCAR

John H. Nemechek Edges Out Teammate to Make In-Season Challenge Semifinal
Alex Bowman

Ty Dillon Bumps Alex Bowman to Advance to In-Season Challenge Semifinal
Shane Van Gisbergen

Can Anyone Beat Shane van Gisbergen at Sonoma?
Tyler Reddick

Better at Sonoma Than Record Shows
Chase Elliott

a Prime DFS Option at Sonoma
Michael McDowell

Struggling a Bit at Sonoma
NASCAR

Christopher Bell Has Never Finished Better Than Ninth at Sonoma
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Has Top-10 Upside at Sonoma
NASCAR

Sunday at Sonoma Will Likely Be a Long Race for Bubba Wallace
Kyle Larson

Is A Likely Top-Five Contender for Sonoma
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Points Position Could Affect Race at Sonoma
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Struggling to Find Speed at Sonoma
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May be an Underrated Favorite to Compete for the Win at Sonoma
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