Matt Miller's 2026 PGA Championship Longshot Bets

May 13, 2026

Matt Miller dives into his top longshot bets for the 2026 PGA Championship sleeper plays, value bets, and under-the-radar golf betting insights.

Welcome to my weekly longshots article! The purpose of this piece is to identify players further down the board who are low-risk, high-reward wagers. For purposes of this article, I am considering longshots to be players over 100-1 on the odds list.

The wagers listed below might have playability in various sectors of the market. Please search your shops to see if you can find anything enticing.

If you have any additional questions for me, you can find me on X @MattyMillz85. I am always more than happy to answer any questions you might have. Also, stay tuned for additional announcements from me here in 2026. Big things are on the way!

Sepp Straka (105-1 DraftKings)

Sepp Straka is hitting the ball exceptionally well on approach in 2026. In 11 starts since the beginning of the new year, Straka has lost strokes on approach just one time. He's gained in each of his last four starts and has gained over a stroke per round on average against the field in three of the four. This season he ranks 13th on tour in strokes gained approach.

The 33-year-old has also found success in this region in the past. Straka won last year's Truist Championship, held at Philadelphia Cricket Club. In addition to it's proximity to this year's PGA Championship, the Cricket Club also has a similar course setup to what we will see this week at Aronimink.

Sepp Straka's hat tan line is incredible 🧢 pic.twitter.com/PxnixJv6yV

— Golf on CBS ⛳ (@GolfonCBS) May 3, 2026

While Straka's overall major track record leaves much to be desired, we have seen some success at majors on his resume. In 2023 the Austrian posted Top 10 finishes at both the PGA Championship and the Open Championship. His Open Championship result was a T2.

Joaquin Niemann (100-1 FanDuel)

While Niemann is having a bit of a down year thus far in 2026, I believe that there has been an overadjustment on his odds this week. The 27-year-old is simply too good to go off at triple digit odds. Despite the down year, he is also not playing THAT bad.

Joaquin Niemann if LIV folded: “I’d love to keep playing golf. It would be nice to one day play DPWT. Then one day we could go back to the PGA Tour. I would love to play on the PGA Tour. But that scenario’s not likely to happen for LIV disappearing.”

Chat:https://t.co/Go8G6cocvn pic.twitter.com/yIOKMMM5Ot

— BeyondTheClubhouse Podcast (@BeyondClubhouse) May 10, 2026

For as loud as the poor play narrative surrounding Niemann is, he still has produced three T12 or better finished in his last four starts. Niemann has also not lost strokes off the tee since the U.S. Open last June. The iron play and putting have both been inconsistent to begin 2026 but I don't believe Niemann is as lost as he may seem on the surface.

This is a player who won FIVE times last year in the LIV Golf League. Since the start of 2024, he has won seven times, the most in league history. The upside for Niemann is enormous. When he brings his "A" game, he can compete with anyone in the world.

At the 100-1 price point, I think it is worth taking a shot at Niemann and hoping he puts the iron play and putter together this week.

Wyndham Clark (195-1 DraftKings)

Full disclosure, I am a bit of Wyndham Clark truther. That said, this number is absurd, even for the biggest Clark skeptics. Clark has won three times on the PGA Tour since May of 2023. Two of his three wins came in signature events at Pebble Beach and Quail Hollow, and his third came at the U.S. Open. It's safe to say the 32-year-old has the ability to close out a big event.

I believe Clark's profile is a sneaky nice fit at Aronimink this week. If the course ultimately favors distance off the tee, Clark has no issue getting it out there with the driver. The heavy driver approach at Aronimink also doesn't require Clark to be incredibly accurate off the tee. The Scottsdale native is known to get a little loose with his driving accuracy, which theoretically shouldn't hurt him on many holes here.

Despite being known as a big hitter, Clark actually possesses nice approach numbers from inside 150 yards. This will be a key stat profile to look for this week at Aronimink, which only measures around 7,300 yards. If Clark can hit his wedges well this week as his profile suggests he can, I believe he can find himself in the mix over the weekend.

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