Matt Miller's 2026 John Deere Classic Longshot Bets

July 1, 2026

Matt Miller dives into his top longshot bets for the 2026 John Deere Classic sleeper plays, value bets, and under-the-radar golf betting insights.

Welcome to my weekly longshots article! The purpose of this piece is to identify players further down the board who are low-risk, high-reward wagers. For purposes of this article, I am considering longshots to be players over 80-1 on the odds list.

The wagers listed below might have playability in various sectors of the market. Please search your shops to see if you can find anything enticing.

If you have any additional questions for me, you can find me on X @MattyMillz85. I am always more than happy to answer any questions you might have. Also, stay tuned for additional announcements from me here in 2026. Big things are on the way!

Ben Kohles (82-1 DraftKings)

Ben Kohles is not the most household name on the PGA Tour but the 36-year-old's form is hard to deny at the moment. Two weeks ago, Kohles led the field on approach at the U.S Open. Yes, you read that correctly.

I have to give a shoutout to Rotoballer's own, Ian Mcneill, for pointing the above stat out to me. However, the U.S. Open approach numbers are not a one-off. Kohles finished 16th in the field for the week at the RBC Canadian Open in strokes gained approach. He also gained over 1.5 strokes per round on approach against the field at the Charles Schwab Challenge despite missing the cut.

Grind doesn't stop.

Immediately after his @BMWCharityProAm victory, Ben Kohles had to drive to Charlotte to try and catch a flight for his U.S. Open Qualifier tomorrow morning. pic.twitter.com/FaqI7A2U0K

— Korn Ferry Tour (@KornFerryTour) June 8, 2026

While not being the longest player off the tee, Kohles is an extremely accurate driver of the golf ball. This is a perfect profile for TPC Deere Run, a course that does not require distance off the tee but rather puts an emphasis on playing out of the fairway.

The putter has been the club that has held the 36-year-old back recently. The good news for Kohles is that Deere Run is a course with fairly easy greens. Historically bad putters have found some success on the green complexes at this event which gives me hope that poor putters are still live to win this week.

Austin Smotherman (100-1 FanDuel)

Anybody who has been following me this year knows that I am the driver of the Austin Smotherman bandwagon. Smo came up just short for me in early March at the Cognizant Classic and the results haven't quite been there since.

Austin Smotherman got ROBBED on this chip @CSChallengeFW 🫢 pic.twitter.com/vSK2JvL08h

— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) May 31, 2026

Despite the pedestrian results over the past few months, I like Smotherman's profile a lot this week. He is an accurate driver of the golf ball who can spike with his irons and is often held back by poor putting. TPC Deere Run is a course that requires accuracy off the tee, strong approach play, and has easy greens that often allows poor putters to putt well.

While the year has been a bit of a rollercoaster for the 32-year-old, he ranks out statistically well in a few key categories. Smotherman ranks 14th this season on the PGA Tour in strokes gained approach and ranks 22nd this season on the PGA Tour in driving accuracy.

Luke Clanton (170-1 DraftKings)

Luke Clanton has been one of the biggest disappointments for me so far in 2026. After bursting onto the PGA Tour scene with a handful of top ten finishes and a few legitimate chances to pick up a victory, Calnton has been mediocre at best.

The 22 year-old looks like a shell of himself off the tee and the approach numbers over the past year are nothing compared to what we saw out of Clanton when he debuted on tour. Despite all the negatives, the talent is undeniable.

Over his last five starts, Clanton has gained strokes on approach four times. While nothing jumps off the page with the approach numbers, he's been consistently solid. He also hasn't missed a cut since March. This may seem minor, but it's a step in the right direction for Clanton who started his 2026 with four missed cuts in six events.

Clanton is starting to gain confidence again and he now heads to a course where he finished T2 in 2024. Is he ready to break through this week? I don't know. But the signs are there that Clanton is starting to round back into form.

More PGA Analysis and DFS Lineup Picks

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