X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community!

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


LINEUP RESOURCES

Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Pickups & Streamers
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Joe Musgrove to the Padres - Fantasy Impact

The San Diego Padres have made yet another trade for starting pitching, as news broke on Monday of a three-team, seven-player deal that will send Joe Musgrove back home to sunny Southern California. Here's how the deal breaks down:

Padres receive: RHP Joe Musgrove
Mets receive: LHP Joey Lucchesi
Pirates receive: (from Padres) OF Hudson Head, RHP David Bednar, LHP Omar Cruz, RHP Drake Fellows; (from Mets) C/OF Endy Rodriguez

So the Padres bolstered an already stacked starting rotation, the Mets take a chance on a back-end starter coming off a down year, and the Pirates restock their farm system with five prospects — including four who slot into the team's Top-30 prospect list. Out of all the guys involved in this deal, Musgrove will likely be the only one with any impact in fantasy in 2021. We'll focus on what to expect out of him, but we'll also take a look at the potential from Lucchesi for this year as well as the long-term dynasty implications from the Pirates' haul. But first, what will Musgrove do in the NL West?

Featured Promo: Want a free RotoBaller Premium Pass? Check out these sports betting promo offers from the top sportsbooks! All new sign-ups get a free bonus offer on their first deposit, and a free year of RotoBaller's Premium Pass for all sports ($450 value)! Sign Up Now!

 

Musgrove in San Diego

Throughout his five-year career, Musgrove has been a solid back-of-the-rotation starter with good strikeout numbers. The 4.33 ERA leaves something to be desired, but he has maintained a career 22.3 percent strikeout rate and has never posted a single-season rate below 20.5 percent. His first full season of work came in 2019, where he went 11-12 for the Pirates with a 4.44 ERA and 157 strikeouts over 170.1 innings. Musgrove's 3.82 FIP, 4.31 xFIP and 3.50 SIERA suggest he pitched better than his ERA showed, but his 6.2 percent barrel rate was the worst of his career and his 38.6 percent hard-hit rate was the second-worst of his career.

Things really seemed to click for Musgrove in 2020, as he had a career-year with a 3.86 ERA, 33.1 percent strikeout rate, 14.4 percent swinging strike rate and 68.9 percent contact rate. His Statcast numbers also showed improvement in 2020, with his 85.1 mph average exit velocity and his 32.3 percent hard-hit rate career-bests while his 5.4 percent barrel rated tied for second-best in his career.

But one area of concern managers should keep an eye on with Musgrove is his increasing launch angle and home run per fly ball rate:

Launch Angle HR/FB
2017 9.9 16.4%
2018 10.6 10.2%
2019 11.7 11.7%
2020 12.5 17.2%

Now keep in mind, Musgrove did have career-high marks despite the increasing launch angle and HR/FB rate. But it is something managers should take note of when looking at his potential future value.

Along with that, there should be some concern with Musgrove going up against tougher opponents in the NL West. Since 2019, Pirates divisional opponents have averaged 4.56 runs per game with the 2019 Cubs the only team to average more than five runs per game. Over that same span in the NL West though, Padres divisional opponents have averaged 4.96 runs per game with the 2019 Rockies and Diamondbacks averaging over five runs per game while the Dodgers hit that mark in both 2019 and 2020.

On the plus side though, Musgrove will go from being supported by the worst offense in the majors to a top-five offense in San Diego. Considering the fact he went 1-5 in 2020 despite allowing more than three runs in only two of his eight starts, a boost in team offense will be a welcome sight for Musgrove and fantasy managers alike.

 

Lucchesi in New York

After showing some promise in his first two seasons, Lucchesi struggled in 2020 — making just three appearances and spending most of the year at the Padres' alternate site. Take it with a grain of salt due to small sample size, but over 5.2 innings, Lucchesi posted a 7.94 ERA with hitters teeing off him to the tune of a .448 batting average. His .542 BABIP suggests he was extraordinarily unlucky in his limited time on the mound, but his .362 xBA doesn't exactly make managers feel much better. There was no noticeable dip in his velocity, and his 13.8 percent swinging strike rate, 70.2 percent contact rate and 20.8 percent hard-hit rates were all career-bests. So all of that suggests that 2020 was somewhat fluky for Lucchesi.

As of right now, Fangraphs RosterResource is projecting Lucchesi to likely start the year at Triple-A, but if he breaks the Mets' roster there should be no doubting his strikeout potential as he averaged 150 strikeouts over his first two years with a 24.6 percent strikeout rate in that time. He would also get the benefit of going against the slightly weaker NL East, as Mets' divisional opponents averaged 4.87 runs per game over the last two seasons compared to the Padres' divisional opponents that averaged 4.96 runs per game in that span.

 

Pirates Prospect-Palooza

The Pirates are in rebuild mode and they got quite a bit of help in their future plans with this trade. Head is the centerpiece in this deal for Pittsburgh, as he now ranks as the No. 6 prospect in their system according to MLB Pipeline. A third-round pick out of Winston Churchill High School in 2019, Head slashed .283/.383/.417 with three triples, a home run, 12 RBI and three steals in the Arizona League while posting a 20.6 percent strikeout rate and 10.6 percent walk rate. Scouts like his raw power and his speed, which could bode well for future fantasy value. Pittsburgh has some solid outfield prospects in its system, but Head could quickly climb the ladder and potentially reach the majors within the next four years if he can translate that potential into results.

The other three guys to crack MLB Pipeline's Top-30 list for Pittsburgh are Cruz, Rodriguez, and Bednar. Cruz has been a strikeout machine in his two seasons in the minors, posting a 32.5 percent strikeout rate across 98.1 innings in 22 starts. He doesn't throw hard, but he has solid command of his pitches and is projected to be a back-end starter or potentially a bullpen arm.

Rodriguez has yet to play above Rookie level, slashing .276/.389/.452 over two seasons with four homers and six steals while playing behind the plate and in the outfield.

The only player Pittsburgh acquired in this deal with major league experience, Bednar has a 6.75 ERA with a 23.8 percent strikeout rate over 17.1 innings with San Diego. Bednar pitched solely out of the bullpen in his minor league career, posting a 2.70 ERA and a 33 percent strikeout rate over four seasons. Unlike the other players Pittsburgh received, Bednar is projected to make the Opening Day roster this season.

Rounding out the Pirates' haul is Fellows — a sixth-round pick in the 2019 Draft out of Vanderbilt who has yet to toss an inning of pro-ball. Fellows led the SEC with 13 wins and was second with 133 strikeouts in 2019, but there were some command issues too as he also led the conference with 17 wild pitches and 17 hit batters.

 

Fantasy Bottom Line

Out of all the players involved in this deal, Musgrove will most likely be the only one relevant in any format in 2021. Based on what we've gone over, managers should expect Musgrove to post an ERA somewhere close to 4.00 along with a strikeout rate of about 22 percent — or about 160 strikeouts in a full season. His current ADP sits at 144, which is about where managers should look to target him, but the argument could be made to grab him over some starters who are currently going ahead of him like Sandy Alcantara (134 ADP) or Charlie Morton (132).

Lucchesi is essentially not being drafted with an ADP of 678. The move to the Mets could bring a slight boost to his fantasy value when he pitches, but for now best case scenario he looks to be a high-upside streaming option if and when he gets a start.

Head and Cruz are the two prospects that dynasty league managers should focus on for the time being, but they likely are several years away from actually contributing. Rodriguez and Fellows are worth keeping an eye on, but their ETA is likely even further in the future than Head and Cruz. Bednar should get playing time in the majors this year, but his value is extremely limited outside of the deepest of formats.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Fantasy Baseball Analysis




LINEUP RESOURCES

Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Pickups & Streamers
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

ROTOBALLER PLAYER NEWS

Bruno Fernando10 mins ago

Questionable On Thursday With Illness
Josh Christopher15 mins ago

Tagged As Questionable Against Spurs
Nikola Jovic21 mins ago

Available To Play Against Clippers
Duncan Robinson27 mins ago

Probable For Thursday's Game
San Francisco Giants1 hour ago

Giants Acquire Blake Sabol From The Reds
Austin Brice1 hour ago

Diamondbacks Sign Austin Brice To Minor-League Deal
Jason Heyward1 hour ago

Dodgers Sign Jason Heyward To Minor-League Deal
Trevor Williams2 hours ago

Mets Could Reunite With Trevor Williams
Baker Mayfield2 hours ago

Expected To Be Active, Could Start
Marcus Mariota3 hours ago

Benched For Desmond Ridder
Andrei Kuzmenko6 hours ago

Heating Up Again
Josh Jacobs6 hours ago

Expected To Play Thursday Night
Mika Zibanejad6 hours ago

Enjoys A Three-Point Night Versus Vegas
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins6 hours ago

Piles Up Three Points Wednesday
Connor McDavid6 hours ago

Goes Off For Another Four Points
Linus Ullmark6 hours ago

Shuts Out Colorado
Taylor Hall6 hours ago

Grabs Three Points In Wednesday's Win
Patrik Laine6 hours ago

Nets Two Goals Wednesday
Alex Tuch7 hours ago

Posts Career-High Four Points
Kirill Kaprizov13 hours ago

Extends Point Streak In Loss
Alex Ovechkin13 hours ago

Scores Twice In Victory
Joe Jiménez13 hours ago

Braves Acquire Joe Jimenez From Tigers
Xander Bogaerts14 hours ago

Padres Agree With Xander Bogaerts On 11-Year Deal
Tage Thompson14 hours ago

Scores Five Goals In Dominant Victory
Tyler Herro15 hours ago

Probable For Meeting With The Clippers
Buddy Hield15 hours ago

Scores 26 Points In Loss
Tyrese Haliburton15 hours ago

Plays Well In Return From Injury
Giannis Antetokounmpo15 hours ago

Has Game-High 35 Points In Win
Kevin Durant16 hours ago

Nearly Misses A Triple-Double On Wednesday
Kyrie Irving16 hours ago

Scores 33 Points On Wednesday
Julius Randle16 hours ago

Dominant In Win Over Hawks
Romeo Langford18 hours ago

Probable For Thursday
Dansby Swanson18 hours ago

Four Teams Showing Serious Interest In Dansby Swanson
Andrew Wiggins18 hours ago

To Miss Next Two Games
Dejounte Murray18 hours ago

Won't Return On Wednesday
Chris Paul18 hours ago

Returns On Wednesday
Dejounte Murray18 hours ago

Questionable To Return On Wednesday
Xander Bogaerts18 hours ago

Six Teams Talking With Xander Bogaerts
Myles Turner19 hours ago

To Play Wednesday
Tyrese Haliburton19 hours ago

Available On Wednesday
Javonte Green19 hours ago

Ruled Out For Wednesday
Mike Conley19 hours ago

Won't Return On Wednesday
Alex Caruso19 hours ago

Available On Wednesday
Pittsburgh Pirates20 hours ago

Pirates Take Jose Hernandez In Rule 5 Draft
Ryan Noda20 hours ago

A's Pluck Ryan Noda Away From The Dodgers
Boston Red Sox20 hours ago

Red Sox Reel In Masataka Yoshida On Five-Year Deal
Cole Hamels20 hours ago

Wants To Pitch In 2023
Josh Jacobs20 hours ago

Questionable For Thursday Night Football
New York Mets20 hours ago

Mets Remain Involved With Kodai Senga
Carlos Rodón20 hours ago

Yankees Remain In On Carlos Rodon
Mike Williams20 hours ago

Set To Practice This Week
Carlos Correa20 hours ago

Giants Have Talked With Carlos Correa
Thad Ward21 hours ago

Nationals Select Thad Ward With First Rule 5 Pick
Zach Hyman21 hours ago

Set To Return Wednesday
James Van Riemsdyk21 hours ago

James van Riemsdyk Returns To Flyers Lineup
Craig Smith21 hours ago

Back For Bruins Wednesday
James Reimer21 hours ago

Misses Another Game
Nico Sturm21 hours ago

Back In Action Wednesday
Jack Eichel21 hours ago

Sits Out A Second Game
Filip Chytil21 hours ago

Ready To Go Wednesday
Jimmy Garoppolo22 hours ago

A Long Shot To Return In Playoffs
Joe Mixon22 hours ago

A Full Participant In Practice
Los Angeles Rams23 hours ago

Aaron Donald Ruled Out For Thursday Night
Trevor Lawrence23 hours ago

Expects To Play In Week 14
Brooks Raley24 hours ago

Mets Acquire Brooks Raley From Rays
Casey Sadler24 hours ago

Mariners Sign Casey Sadler To Minors Deal
Tucker Barnhart24 hours ago

Pirates Interested In Tucker Barnhart
Seth Lugo1 day ago

Drawing A Lot Of Interest To Start
Courtland Sutton1 day ago

Unlikely To Play In Week 14
Xander Bogaerts1 day ago

Red Sox In Heavy Discussions With Xander Bogaerts
David Njoku1 day ago

Ready To Play
Buffalo Bills1 day ago

Von Miller Undergoes Surgery, Out For The Year
Mark Ingram II1 day ago

Likely Done For The Season
Trevor Lawrence1 day ago

Up In The Air For Week 14
Tua Tagovailoa1 day ago

Expected To Be Limited In Practice
Davis Mills1 day ago

Texans Going Back To Davis Mills At QB
Magomed Ankalaev1 day ago

Can Realize His UFC Dream
Jan Blachowicz1 day ago

Set For Title Redemption
Jared Gordon1 day ago

Has An Opportunity For A Huge Victory
Paddy Pimblett1 day ago

Set To Showcase In UFC 282
Matt Murray1 day ago

Records A 44-Save Shutout
Pierre-Luc Dubois1 day ago

Extends Hot Streak With Three Assists
Anze Kopitar1 day ago

Collects Three Assists
Dricus Du Plessis1 day ago

Hoping To Continue To Rack Up Wins
Darren Till1 day ago

Looking For A Key Victory At UFC 282
Ilia Topuria1 day ago

Meets Fellow Top-15 Undefeated Featherweight
Bryce Mitchell1 day ago

Set To Open UFC 282 Main Card
Greg Dortch2 days ago

Cardinals Hopeful Rondale Moore, Greg Dortch Return This Week
Jimmy Garoppolo2 days ago

Will Avoid Surgery, Could Return In Playoffs
Baker Mayfield2 days ago

Claimed By The Rams
David Njoku2 days ago

Browns Expect David Njoku To Play In Week 14
Lamar Jackson2 days ago

Dealing With PCL Knee Sprain
Kevin Holland3 days ago

Takes The Loss In Saturday's Main Event
Stephen Thompson3 days ago

Earns Victory In Main Event
Bryan Barberena3 days ago

Unable To Secure A Win Saturday
Rafael Dos Anjos3 days ago

Rafael dos Anjos Takes Co-Main Event By Submission
Matt Schnell3 days ago

Matthew Christopher Schnell Takes The Loss Saturday
Matheus Nicolau3 days ago

Continues Run With TKO Victory
Tai Tuivasa3 days ago

Suffers Second Straight Loss
Sergei Pavlovich3 days ago

Earns Fifth Straight Victory With Knockout Win
Jack Hermansson3 days ago

Ends 2022 With Losing Record
Roman Dolidze3 days ago

Makes Most Of Opportunity With TKO Victory
Kyle Daukaus3 days ago

Has His Night Come To An Early End
Eryk Anders3 days ago

Gets It Done With A Second TKO Performance
Kevin Holland5 days ago

Hoping To Rebound With Main-Event Victory

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP