X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Hitter Fantasy Baseball Breakouts - Risers To Watch and Waiver Wire Outlooks (Week 3)

Brice Turang - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Draft Sleepers, MLB Injury News

Jarod's hitter fantasy baseball breakouts, sleepers and risers to watch for Week 3 of 2025. His list includes waiver wire outlooks and underachieving hitters so far.

Welcome to the second edition of my Fantasy Baseball Breakout Hitters series as we head into Week 3 of the 2025 MLB season! For those who are new to this article, I try to illuminate players whose recent stats suggest a breakout is coming or that perhaps they are on the verge of a cold spell.

In today's edition, we'll take a look at players like Brice Turang, Kyren Paris, and Jeremy Pena. Checking in on who's hot (or not) can bring to light some interesting names. Some of those names could then become potential waiver wire targets for you or sneaky DFS plays (or avoids) to use before the rest of the fantasy community catches on.

With less than two weeks of data, the sample size is small, but we'll still see which players own the longest current hit streaks, highest batting average, and highest ISO over the last seven days, as well as some regression candidates and more.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Hit Streak Leaders

Data through 4/9

Jacob Wilson has the longest streak at 13 games, but I wrote about him in last week's Breakout Watch article and before that in my Fantasy Prospects With The Best Hit Tools article, so if you want to read more about him, all the points made in those articles are still valid. Oh, and for those not sold on his power potential, he hit another home run last week.

Brice Turang (12 games)

Brice Turang's hit streak sits at 12 games, although it is technically 15 games long if you go back to the end of last season (and Wilson's would be 14 games in that case).

Not only does he have a hit in each game he's played this season, the left-handed hitter is 5-for-13 (.385) with a double, a home run, two RBI, and six runs scored over the last three.

Also, he's playing against left-handed pitchers and holding his own with a .222 batting average (6-for-27), but is cruising against righties, hitting .455 (10-for-22) against them.

What is surprising is that he's only got two steals thus far in 53 plate appearances (26.5 PA per steal) compared to last season when he stole 50 bags in 619 PA (12.38 PA per steal).

Still, with a spike in barrel rate, perhaps fantasy managers will end up with an unexpected number of home runs and fewer steals as a trade-off from the former first-round draft pick.

While he's the second-highest scoring second baseman in fantasy right now, it may not last, as the 25-year-old is making less contact in 2025 (79.4 percent contract rate, 10.0 swinging-strike rate) than he was a year ago (88.0 percent contact rate, 5.6 percent swinging-strike rate) when he hit just .254.

 

Highest Batting Average Last Seven Days

Minimum 13 AB, data through 4/9

Zach McKinstry (.615)

Zach McKinstry is currently riding a seven-game hit streak that includes three multi-hit efforts and a .455 average. Over the last week (five games), though, it looks even better, as he's gone 8-for-13 (.615), including a triple and a home run.

This season, he's also getting on base via the walk and isn't striking out much, now with a 6:5 BB:K through his first 11 games. With a career BA of .224, the left-handed hitter isn't going to hit .371 all season, so you may want to play him in DFS with the right matchups while he's hot.

In redraft leagues, if you're looking for a hitter that is on a roll that you can plug into your lineup, give McKinstry some consideration as he also owns 2B, 3B, SS, and OF eligibility on Yahoo! and is available in over 80 percent of leagues.

Sal Frelick (.435)

It seems every Brewers hitter is seeing the ball well right now, and Sal Frelick is one of them. With a 0.0 percent barrel rate, he isn't going to help you with home runs or even provide many extra-base hits for DFS, but he can boost your batting average in redraft leagues.

The former first-rounder stole 18 bases last year in 524 PA, and he's on pace for 30 this season, so he could also help boost that category or earn points in DFS that way. The 24-year-old is available in about 80 percent of leagues.

 

Highest ISO Last Seven Days

Minimum 13 AB, data through 4/9

When it comes to fantasy, especially DFS, we want to see power. More big hits mean more points. Big hits usually drive in more runs, which means more points. Doubles and triples put hitters in a better position to score, which means? You guessed it -- more points! So, who's hitting for extra bases over the past week?

Kyren Paris (.750)

There may not be many hitters hotter than Kyren Paris right now. Over the first five games of the season, the former second-round draft pick made the most of his sporadic playing time in the outfield, going 4-for-9 with a triple, a home run, three RBI, five runs scored, and three stolen bases.

However, since starting at second base on April 4, the 23-year-old has gone 7-for-16 with four home runs in his last three games while tallying another five RBI, six more runs, and a stolen base.

With a 63.8 percent contact rate, 17.0 percent swinging-strike rate, and unsustainable .429 BABIP, it seems regression could be on the horizon.

Given a ridiculous 63.2 percent hard-hit rate and elite 26.3 percent barrel rate, the right-handed hitter could still continue producing some gaudy power numbers. Paris is still available in over 60 percent of Yahoo! leagues for managers interested in his services.

Kerry Carpenter (.632)

Like Paris, Kerry Carpenter has four home runs over the past week (6 games). Unlike Paris, Carpenter hasn't done much else of note, with those four home runs being his only four hits during that time.

Still, the left-handed hitter's BABIP sits at the other end of the spectrum from Paris' at .154, leaving him with an xBA of .273 compared to his actual batting average of .216.

With at least 18 home runs each of the last two seasons in no more than 118 games, the power is legit and should continue to produce long balls.

Currently owning the best contact rate and lowest strikeout rate of his career, the career .274 hitter should see an increase in batting average, so his arrow appears to be pointing up.

 

Most Steals Last Seven Days

Data through 4/9

The list for steals leaders over the past week is kind of... what's the word... wonky? Tyler Tolbert had four steals, but with only two plate appearances, and Jon Berti had three in only five plate appearances. Pete Crow-Armstrong had four, but with just five total bases on five singles. Victor Robles had three but will be on the IL for the next few months. Trea Turner and Jazz Chisholm Jr, well, you already know all about them, right?

Leody Taveras (3)

So, let's take a look at Leody Taveras. He's appeared in 12 games so far and is hitting just .250, but much of that is due to the 26-year-old's poor start, going 5-for-28 (.178) over his first 10 games.

Over the last two, however, the Dominican is 4-for-8 (.500). The switch-hitter has at least 12 home runs in each of the last two seasons, and with zero so far in 2025, he'll need to pick up the pace in that regard.

But Taveras has five steals on the season now in 37 plate appearances, which is a 67-steal pace if he can earn 500 PA like he has the last two seasons.

With Wyatt Langford heading to the IL, the Rangers are thin in the outfield now, and Taveras should continue to get playing time.

Managers in need of steals may consider picking up the sixth-year big leaguer, just know it might be at the cost of batting average. If his bat continues to pick up steam like it has in the last two games, then he could be more widely considered in more leagues.

 

xBA Underachiever

Data through 4/9

Below are a couple of hitters with some of the most significant differences between their current and expected batting averages, or xBA. While this is often a good exercise to see who is on the verge of turning things around, it's not certain.

Sometimes, hitters over- or underperform their xBA throughout their career, so regression to the xBA may not happen. Let's discuss a well-known player who is underachieving according to xBA.

Jeremy Pena (.186 vs. .340)

Jeremy Pena has gotten off to a terrible start if you were simply looking at his batting average of .186, but if you saw he had a career BABIP of .305 compared to 2025's .182 and an xBA of .340, you might feel differently.

It's still early in the season, but the 27-year-old is registering the best hard-hit rate, barrel rate, chase rate, swinging-strike rate, and strikeout rate of his career, but doesn't have much to show for it.

The former AL Rookie of the Year is also posting the best walk rate of his career and is on pace for over 20 stolen bases again, currently with four steals on the season.

Fantasy managers should stay patient with the 6-foot-1 slugger, as he looks due for a breakout.

Honorable mention: Andrew Vaughn (.139 vs. .280)

 

xBA Overachiever

Data through 4/9

We'll touch on a hitter below who might eventually cool off. In this case, the BA is much higher than the xBA, and some regression should be expected. Note that players usually exhibit a gradual decline rather than a steep drop-off, but we should be vigilant nonetheless.

Pavin Smith (.400 vs. .285)

What, you thought Pavin Smith would be the first player since Ted Williams to hit .400 in a season? No, of course you didn't, so based on his current batting average, we need to expect some regression. With a BABIP of .647, a lot has gone his way. But how much regression should we expect?

Well, if he regressed to his xBA of .285, that'd probably be acceptable for anyone using him in season-long leagues. It may sink further than that if he doesn't reduce his 34.3 percent strikeout rate and increase his 68.3 percent contact rate.

The former seventh-overall draft pick has played in the majors in portions of each of the last five seasons and has been a .248 career hitter, so there could be a lot further to fall.

Regardless of how much, look for signs of him starting to cool down, and you'll know it may be time to start looking elsewhere for waiver wire help.

Also: Kyren Paris  (.440 vs. .332)



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Fantasy Baseball Advice




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Anthony Rizzo

Retires
Cameron Champ

the Ultimate Wild Card at Procore
Cameron Young

Looks to Extend Momentum in Napa
Davis Thompson

Searching for a Spark at Procore
Sahith Theegala

Looking to Reignite Form at Procore
Mackenzie Hughes

Aims for Another Strong Showing at Procore
Luke Clanton

Brings Ball-Striking Upside to Napa
Seamus Power

Looking to Overcome Poor Course History at Procore
Joe Highsmith

Hoping to Find Form in Napa
Jadeveon Clowney

Visiting With the Cowboys on Wednesday
Masyn Winn

Will Require Offseason Knee Surgery
Kristaps Porzingis

Reportedly Still Not Completely Healthy
Kelly Oubre Jr.

Reportedly on the Trade Block
Andre Drummond

Future in Philadelphia in Doubt
Giannis Antetokounmpo

Helps Greece Reach Semis at EuroBasket
Alperen Sengün

Alperen Sengun Posts Historic Triple-Double
Joel Dahmen

Finishes Tied For 15 at Wyndham Championship
Bud Cauley

Finishes Tied for 33rd at BMW Championship
Justin Thomas

Finishes Tied for Seventh at Tour Championship
J.J. Spaun

Finishes Tied for 25th at Tour Championship
Collin Morikawa

Finishes Tied for 19th at Tour Championship
Keith Mitchell

Misses Cut at Wyndham Championship
Ben Griffin

Finishes Tied for 10th at Tour Championship
Patrick Cantlay

Finishes Tied for Second at Tour Championship
Gary Woodland

Could Hang Around at Procore Championship
Ranger Suárez

Ranger Suarez Strikes Out 12, Earns 12th Win on Tuesday
Karl Vilips

Ready for Napa Valley This Weekend
Taylor Montgomery

Heating Up at the Right Time
Jackson Koivun

May Be a Little Rusty at Procore Championship
Doug Ghim

Looking to Rise Up at Napa Valley
Christian Watson

Agrees to One-Year Contract Extension
Josh Giddey

Re-Signs With Bulls for Four Years
Shakir Mukhamadullin

Joins Informal Skate
William Eklund

Skates With Sharks
Owen Power

Back at 100 Percent
Tyler Seguin

Cleared for Action
Mathew Barzal

Good to Go for Season Opener
Will Smith

Returns to Dodgers Lineup on Tuesday
Dustin Wolf

Signs Seven-Year Extension
Kyle Stowers

Dealing With Strained Side
Kyle Tucker

Placed on Injured List With Calf Strain
Jauan Jennings

Considered Day-to-Day, has a Chance to Play in Week 2
Jalen Carter

Receives One-Game Suspension, Will be Eligible for Week 2
Bo Bichette

Goes on Injured List With Knee Sprain
George Kittle

Placed on Injured Reserve
Tyreek Hill

Accused of Domestic Violence
Jauan Jennings

Avoids Serious Shoulder Injury
Garrett Crochet

Shuts Out the Athletics
Royce Lewis

Launches Two Homers Monday Night
NBA

Mason Jones Takes His Talents to Australia
NBA

Talen Horton-Tucker Joins Reigning EuroLeague Champions
New York Knicks

Malcolm Brogdon on Knicks' Radar
Andrew Wiggins

Attracting Interest From Lakers
Miami Heat

Heat Interested in Reunion With Precious Achiuwa
Tyler Glasnow

Fans 11 in Seven No-Hit Innings Monday
Slade Cecconi

Takes No-Hitter Into Eighth Inning Monday
Max Muncy

Batting Cleanup in Return to Dodgers
New York Knicks

Ben Simmons Reportedly Declined Knicks' Contract Offer
Younghoe Koo

Falcons Auditioning Kickers, Could Replace Younghoe Koo
Denver Broncos

Sean Payton Says Broncos Need to be Better With Run-Pass Balance
Tank Bigsby

Eagles Acquiring Tank Bigsby From Jaguars on Monday
George Kittle

Likely Out 3-5 Weeks, Could Land on Injured Reserve
Chase Burns

to be Activated on Friday
Brock Purdy

Dealing With Multiple Injuries, Could Miss Week 2
Tyler Glasnow

Cleared to Start on Monday
Logan O'Hoppe

Placed on Concussion Injured List
Christian Yelich

Returning on Monday
Elias Pettersson

Feeling "Good" Ahead of Season
NHL

Alex Formenton Rejoins Swiss Team
NHL

Grigori Denisenko Heads Back Home
CAR

Kevin Labanc Joins Hurricanes for Tryout
Ross Colton

Healthy for Start of Season
Daniel Palencia

Cubs Place Daniel Palencia on Injured List With Shoulder Strain
Pete Crow-Armstrong

Returning on Monday
Sean Murphy

Done for the Year With Hip Labral Tear
Alec Bohm

Lands on Injured List With Cyst in his Shoulder
Trea Turner

Going on Injured List, Phillies Hope to Have him Back for Playoffs
Brock Bowers

Considered Day-to-Day With Knee Injury
Jonathan Taylor

is "Good" After Taking a Hit to his Neck in Week 1
Caio Borralho

Suffers His First UFC Loss
Nassourdine Imavov

Extends Win Streak
Mauricio Ruffy

Gets Submitted
Benoît Saint Denis

Benoit Saint Denis Taps Out Mauricio Ruffy
Russell Wilson

Remains the Giants Starter
Paul Craig

Retires After UFC Paris Loss
Denny Hamlin

Earns his First Cup Victory at Gateway
Kyle Larson

Damage Ruins Kyle Larson's Chance At a Top Finish at Gateway
Christopher Bell

Scores his Third Top-10 Finish at Gateway
Joey Logano

Maintains his Perfect Top-Five Streak at Gateway
Ryan Blaney

Struggles and Recovers for a Top-Five Finish at Gateway
Modestas Bukauskas

Scores First-Round Knockout
Bolaji Oki

Suffers Second-Round TKO Loss
Xavier Worthy

Week-to-Week with Dislocated Shoulder
Mason Jones

Scores Comeback Win
Rhys McKee

Suffers Third-Round TKO Loss
Axel Sola

Successful In His UFC Debut
Robert Ruchała

Robert Ruchala Unsuccessful In His UFC Debut
William Gomis

Bounces Back In The Win Column
Derrick Henry

Scores Twice but has Costly Fumble on Sunday
Lamar Jackson

Shines With Three Total Touchdowns in Loss to Bills
Keon Coleman

Leads the Team With 11 Targets on Sunday
Josh Allen

Totals Four Touchdowns in Win Over Ravens
Chase Elliott

Gets Lucky but Still Has Best Run at Gateway
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace Wins Stage 2, but Was Let Down by Strategy
Tyler Reddick

Despite Bad Luck, Tyler Reddick Does What he Needed to Do
Chase Briscoe

Recovers from Incident with Daniel Suarez to Finish Second
William Byron

Late Caution Foils William Byron's Shot at Gateway Victory
Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Dominates Targets in Seattle, Records 124 Receiving Yards in Week 1
Jayson Tatum

"Moving Around Way Better"
Ryan Blaney

Should Contend at Gateway
Denny Hamlin

Fastest in Qualifying, the Favorite to Win at Gateway
Christopher Bell

Looking for Redemption at Gateway
Joey Logano

Has Been Elite at Gateway
Austin Cindric

Should Be On Your Radar at Gateway
AJ Allmendinger

Could Be a Sleeper Again at Gateway
Tyler Reddick

Southern 500 Near-Miss Makes Tyler Reddick a Stronger Option for Gateway
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace a Likely Gateway Contender
Alex Bowman

a Long Shot to Advance in Playoffs
Austin Dillon

Richard Childress Racing Looks Slower at Gateway, Which Will Hurt Austin Dillon
Shane Van Gisbergen

Starts 18th in Gateway Debut
Jeremy Swayman

Ready to Get Back on Track
Connor McDavid

Aiming for More Goals
NJ

Luke Glendening Signs Tryout Deal With Devils
Dylan Harper

Hoping to be Ready for the Opener Versus Dallas
EDM

Derek Ryan Retires From Hockey
Connor Zary

Agrees to Three-Year Deal With Flames
Carey Price

Canadiens Trade Carey Price to Sharks
Caio Borralho

Set For A Title Eliminator Bout
Nassourdine Imavov

Looks To Earn A Title Shot
Mauricio Ruffy

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Benoît Saint Denis

Benoit Saint Denis Set For UFC Paris Co-Main Event
Modestas Bukauskas

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Paul Craig

In Dire Need Of Victory
Mason Jones

Set for Main-Card Bout
Bolaji Oki

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Rhys McKee

Set To Open Up UFC Paris Main Card

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP