Hitter Fantasy Baseball Breakouts - Risers To Watch and Waiver Wire Outlooks (Week 3)

April 11, 2025

Jarod's hitter fantasy baseball breakouts, sleepers and risers to watch for Week 3 of 2025. His list includes waiver wire outlooks and underachieving hitters so far.

Welcome to the second edition of my Fantasy Baseball Breakout Hitters series as we head into Week 3 of the 2025 MLB season! For those who are new to this article, I try to illuminate players whose recent stats suggest a breakout is coming or that perhaps they are on the verge of a cold spell.

In today's edition, we'll take a look at players like Brice Turang, Kyren Paris, and Jeremy Pena. Checking in on who's hot (or not) can bring to light some interesting names. Some of those names could then become potential waiver wire targets for you or sneaky DFS plays (or avoids) to use before the rest of the fantasy community catches on.

With less than two weeks of data, the sample size is small, but we'll still see which players own the longest current hit streaks, highest batting average, and highest ISO over the last seven days, as well as some regression candidates and more.

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Hit Streak Leaders

Data through 4/9

Jacob Wilson has the longest streak at 13 games, but I wrote about him in last week's Breakout Watch article and before that in my Fantasy Prospects With The Best Hit Tools article, so if you want to read more about him, all the points made in those articles are still valid. Oh, and for those not sold on his power potential, he hit another home run last week.

Brice Turang (12 games)

Brice Turang's hit streak sits at 12 games, although it is technically 15 games long if you go back to the end of last season (and Wilson's would be 14 games in that case).

Not only does he have a hit in each game he's played this season, the left-handed hitter is 5-for-13 (.385) with a double, a home run, two RBI, and six runs scored over the last three.

Also, he's playing against left-handed pitchers and holding his own with a .222 batting average (6-for-27), but is cruising against righties, hitting .455 (10-for-22) against them.

What is surprising is that he's only got two steals thus far in 53 plate appearances (26.5 PA per steal) compared to last season when he stole 50 bags in 619 PA (12.38 PA per steal).

Brice Turang's hot start continues with a 444-foot blast! pic.twitter.com/a2tiBRyV2w

— MLB (@MLB) April 9, 2025

Still, with a spike in barrel rate, perhaps fantasy managers will end up with an unexpected number of home runs and fewer steals as a trade-off from the former first-round draft pick.

While he's the second-highest scoring second baseman in fantasy right now, it may not last, as the 25-year-old is making less contact in 2025 (79.4 percent contract rate, 10.0 swinging-strike rate) than he was a year ago (88.0 percent contact rate, 5.6 percent swinging-strike rate) when he hit just .254.

Highest Batting Average Last Seven Days

Minimum 13 AB, data through 4/9

Zach McKinstry (.615)

Zach McKinstry is currently riding a seven-game hit streak that includes three multi-hit efforts and a .455 average. Over the last week (five games), though, it looks even better, as he's gone 8-for-13 (.615), including a triple and a home run.

This season, he's also getting on base via the walk and isn't striking out much, now with a 6:5 BB:K through his first 11 games. With a career BA of .224, the left-handed hitter isn't going to hit .371 all season, so you may want to play him in DFS with the right matchups while he's hot.

In redraft leagues, if you're looking for a hitter that is on a roll that you can plug into your lineup, give McKinstry some consideration as he also owns 2B, 3B, SS, and OF eligibility on Yahoo! and is available in over 80 percent of leagues.

Sal Frelick (.435)

It seems every Brewers hitter is seeing the ball well right now, and Sal Frelick is one of them. With a 0.0 percent barrel rate, he isn't going to help you with home runs or even provide many extra-base hits for DFS, but he can boost your batting average in redraft leagues.

The former first-rounder stole 18 bases last year in 524 PA, and he's on pace for 30 this season, so he could also help boost that category or earn points in DFS that way. The 24-year-old is available in about 80 percent of leagues.

Highest ISO Last Seven Days

Minimum 13 AB, data through 4/9

When it comes to fantasy, especially DFS, we want to see power. More big hits mean more points. Big hits usually drive in more runs, which means more points. Doubles and triples put hitters in a better position to score, which means? You guessed it -- more points! So, who's hitting for extra bases over the past week?

Kyren Paris (.750)

There may not be many hitters hotter than Kyren Paris right now. Over the first five games of the season, the former second-round draft pick made the most of his sporadic playing time in the outfield, going 4-for-9 with a triple, a home run, three RBI, five runs scored, and three stolen bases.

However, since starting at second base on April 4, the 23-year-old has gone 7-for-16 with four home runs in his last three games while tallying another five RBI, six more runs, and a stolen base.

With a 63.8 percent contact rate, 17.0 percent swinging-strike rate, and unsustainable .429 BABIP, it seems regression could be on the horizon.

Given a ridiculous 63.2 percent hard-hit rate and elite 26.3 percent barrel rate, the right-handed hitter could still continue producing some gaudy power numbers. Paris is still available in over 60 percent of Yahoo! leagues for managers interested in his services.

Kyren Paris is a player that you need to be watching!

He is hitting .455 with 4 HR, 4 SB, and a 1.647 OPS

His revamped swing is something he worked on this offseason and it’s paying off big time in 2025!pic.twitter.com/qU7fGTDOtL

— Running From The OPS (@OPS_BASEBALL) April 9, 2025

Kerry Carpenter (.632)

Like Paris, Kerry Carpenter has four home runs over the past week (6 games). Unlike Paris, Carpenter hasn't done much else of note, with those four home runs being his only four hits during that time.

Still, the left-handed hitter's BABIP sits at the other end of the spectrum from Paris' at .154, leaving him with an xBA of .273 compared to his actual batting average of .216.

With at least 18 home runs each of the last two seasons in no more than 118 games, the power is legit and should continue to produce long balls.

Currently owning the best contact rate and lowest strikeout rate of his career, the career .274 hitter should see an increase in batting average, so his arrow appears to be pointing up.

Most Steals Last Seven Days

Data through 4/9

The list for steals leaders over the past week is kind of... what's the word... wonky? Tyler Tolbert had four steals, but with only two plate appearances, and Jon Berti had three in only five plate appearances. Pete Crow-Armstrong had four, but with just five total bases on five singles. Victor Robles had three but will be on the IL for the next few months. Trea Turner and Jazz Chisholm Jr, well, you already know all about them, right?

Leody Taveras (3)

So, let's take a look at Leody Taveras. He's appeared in 12 games so far and is hitting just .250, but much of that is due to the 26-year-old's poor start, going 5-for-28 (.178) over his first 10 games.

Over the last two, however, the Dominican is 4-for-8 (.500). The switch-hitter has at least 12 home runs in each of the last two seasons, and with zero so far in 2025, he'll need to pick up the pace in that regard.

But Taveras has five steals on the season now in 37 plate appearances, which is a 67-steal pace if he can earn 500 PA like he has the last two seasons.

With Wyatt Langford heading to the IL, the Rangers are thin in the outfield now, and Taveras should continue to get playing time.

Managers in need of steals may consider picking up the sixth-year big leaguer, just know it might be at the cost of batting average. If his bat continues to pick up steam like it has in the last two games, then he could be more widely considered in more leagues.

xBA Underachiever

Data through 4/9

Below are a couple of hitters with some of the most significant differences between their current and expected batting averages, or xBA. While this is often a good exercise to see who is on the verge of turning things around, it's not certain.

Sometimes, hitters over- or underperform their xBA throughout their career, so regression to the xBA may not happen. Let's discuss a well-known player who is underachieving according to xBA.

Jeremy Pena (.186 vs. .340)

Jeremy Pena has gotten off to a terrible start if you were simply looking at his batting average of .186, but if you saw he had a career BABIP of .305 compared to 2025's .182 and an xBA of .340, you might feel differently.

It's still early in the season, but the 27-year-old is registering the best hard-hit rate, barrel rate, chase rate, swinging-strike rate, and strikeout rate of his career, but doesn't have much to show for it.

The former AL Rookie of the Year is also posting the best walk rate of his career and is on pace for over 20 stolen bases again, currently with four steals on the season.

Fantasy managers should stay patient with the 6-foot-1 slugger, as he looks due for a breakout.

Honorable mention: Andrew Vaughn (.139 vs. .280)

xBA Overachiever

Data through 4/9

We'll touch on a hitter below who might eventually cool off. In this case, the BA is much higher than the xBA, and some regression should be expected. Note that players usually exhibit a gradual decline rather than a steep drop-off, but we should be vigilant nonetheless.

Pavin Smith (.400 vs. .285)

What, you thought Pavin Smith would be the first player since Ted Williams to hit .400 in a season? No, of course you didn't, so based on his current batting average, we need to expect some regression. With a BABIP of .647, a lot has gone his way. But how much regression should we expect?

Well, if he regressed to his xBA of .285, that'd probably be acceptable for anyone using him in season-long leagues. It may sink further than that if he doesn't reduce his 34.3 percent strikeout rate and increase his 68.3 percent contact rate.

The former seventh-overall draft pick has played in the majors in portions of each of the last five seasons and has been a .248 career hitter, so there could be a lot further to fall.

Regardless of how much, look for signs of him starting to cool down, and you'll know it may be time to start looking elsewhere for waiver wire help.

Also: Kyren Paris  (.440 vs. .332)

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