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John Brubaker's top MLB betting picks and best bets for today's MLB games on 8/5/22. His free picks against the spread, teasers, parlays, and MLB player props.
Happy Friday, RotoBallers! Make sure you're following my Twitter, as I can't guarantee that I'll always be able to get the added plays written here in the article, but I will typically add whatever else I'm playing throughout the day. The entire RotoBaller team has been working around the clock to make sure we can get you guys the best betting picks, props, and lineups throughout the season. We're happy you're here with us and are looking forward to an extremely profitable 2022 season!
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If you're new, or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting MLB baseball games for four years now, and this is my second MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and money lines. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Friday, August 5, 2022. I'm continuously working to improve my models to make them more accurate, and as the season progresses, I'll share the data I have on my personal Twitter @LucidMediaDFS. Feel free to give me a follow if you haven't already, and do not hesitate to ask any questions! My DMs are always open. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games.
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LucidMedia's 2022 MLB Betting Picks
- Season to Date: 45-54-2, -19.58 units
- Sides: 29-33-1, -14.45 units
- Totals: 15-21-1, -6.83 units
- Props: 1-0 +1.70 units
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Blue Jays @ Twins
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: MIN +108
TOR: Jose Berrios | MIN: Tyler Mahle
We're finally back after two weeks of vacation, as the All-Star Break and trade deadline pass by, let's hope for a more successful second half than the first. To begin to turn the tide, I'll head out to Minnesota and take a look at the over. Minnesota will be sending Tyler Mahle (5-7, 4.40 ERA) out for his Twins debut. While Mahle has been relatively unlucky this year, given his 29.1% hard contact allowed and his 3.96 xFIP, I'm not optimistic he'll show any positive regression tonight. He's projected to have a 3.99 xFIP while allowing 38.93% hard contact.
After a runaway victory last night, the Blue Jays will look to keep forward the post-deadline momentum, sending Jose Berrios (8-4, 4.96 ERA) to the mound. Like Mahle, Berrios has been relatively unlucky this season, but I don't expect to see any positive regression today. He's allowing 31.2% hard contact on the year but is projected to allow 38.33% hard contact tonight. He's 2-1 with a 3.66 ERA against his former club, and I expect they get to him today.
I certainly wish I could've gotten to this line a bit sooner, as FanDuel Sportsbook has the total set at 8.5 (-120). My model gives this game nearly a 60% chance of going over, so we're getting solid value here. Including last night, these two teams have gone over 8.5 runs in four straight. Despite deadline moves, neither bullpen is particularly impressive either. I'll take the over.
Pick: Over 8.5 (-120) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Red Sox @ Royals
O/U: 9 | Moneyline: KC -102
BOS: Josh Winckowski | KC: Zack Greinke
I'll stay in the AL Central in terms of home venues this evening, this time out in Kansas City, where I'll be looking at a first inning under. The visiting Red Sox will send Josh Winckowski (4-5, 5.00 ERA). Despite the poor run prevention overall, Winckowski has been very good in the first inning. He's a perfect three-for-three in the first on the road and has held opponents scoreless in eight out of nine first innings overall.
He'll take on veteran Zack Greinke (3-6, 4.41 ERA). Similar to Winckowski in terms of run prevention, he's been very solid in the opening frame. He's definitely found solace in Kauffman Stadium, where he's yet to allow a first-inning run in eight starts at his home ballpark. For what it's worth, he hasn't been bad on the road either, allowing a first-inning run in just two of 19 starts overall.
The Sox have scored in the first inning in just over 30% of games on the road, and in just 26% of games overall. Conversely, the Royals have scored in the first in just over 25% in both their home games and overall games. Before putting up two runs each in the first last night, both teams had gone ten straight without scoring. FanDuel Sportsbook is giving us great value on the under at -111. My model gives the under a 71.5% chance of hitting, so we'll happily take the value here.
Pick: Under 0.5 First-Inning Runs (-111) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
Good luck, RotoBallers, and make sure to follow my Twitter for more plays. See you tomorrow!
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