X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community!

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Free MLB Betting Picks - Today's Best Bets, Expert Predictions, Odds (5/24/22)

Pete Alonso - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Draft Sleepers, MLB Injury News

Sometimes your bets don't go your way, but it's for a good cause. Yesterday, we weren't on the right side of the Blue Jays-Cardinals game, yet it's hard to not have fun watching Paul Goldschmidt, the league's top-performing hitter in May, work magic right now. The race between him and Freddie Freeman for the National League first baseman for the All-Star Game is going to come down to the wire.

Welcome back, RotoBallers! In this article, I'll be providing my favorite betting picks MLB games on Tuesday, May 24, 2022, for the 15-game 6:35 PM EST slate. Personally, my approach stems a bit more on the analytical side; I utilize a projection model I created utilizing projections from THE BAT X and Fangraphs Depth Charts to estimate the true talent of each lineup and pitching staff, adjusting for the team's pitcher. Based on the expected run differential each team is supposed to have in a game, we can compare this to see how much a team should theoretically win by, which allows us to translate that into a win probability, which leads to an adjusted money-line. For game totals, the implied runs scored and runs allowed for each team (with today's starting pitcher) are used, along with Baseball Savant park factors. This is not the "end all by all," but having some objective system to identify potential sources of value can be extremely helpful!

Today, we will be looking at the best side and total bets for today's slate. Although we have a full slate of games, this isn't the best day in terms of there being a substantial amount of value. That being said, there are still some intriguing games with value opportunities to take a close look at. What sides/totals should you have your eye on? Let's dive right into today's action!

Featured Promo: Get any full-season Props Premium Pass for 10% off using code BALLER. Win big with our two new Props Optimizer tools -- one for PrizePicks Props, and one for Sportsbook Betting Props. Find optimal prop bets and get our recommended picks daily! Go Premium, Win More!

 

MLB Betting Projection Model Results

*NOTE: Negative Diff indicates that the home team is projected to win, and vice versa.

 

New York Mets @ San Francisco Giants

O/U: 7 | Moneyline: SF -130
NYM: Chris Bassitt | SF: Logan Webb

Mike Petriello of MLB.com tweeted this yesterday, and I couldn't agree more:

If you watch one game today, it should be this one, and not just for the aesthetically-pleasing reasons. For starters, these are two playoff contenders with plenty of interesting players, and with a matchup of Chris Bassitt and Logan Webb on the mound, you know it'll be a well-pitched game. That's exactly what we're looking for!

That being said, at plus money, the Mets certainly are the team that offers value here. For starters, we shouldn't gloss over how productive Chris Bassitt has been this season. In eight starts this season, the 33-year-old has an 18% K-BB ratio with a 3.44 skill interactive ERA (SIERA) and has a career-high 30.4% called-strike + whiff rate (CSW%). Notably, by throwing fewer sinkers and more sliders (39.1% whiff in 2021), he's unlocked even more with his arsenal, leading to a career-high 24.8% whiff rate, while he's averaging over six innings per start so far. In a contract year, he's setting himself up nicely for a strong free-agent contract.

The Giants lineup remains without Brandon Belt and LaMonte Wade Jr., who arguably are their top-two hitters versus right-handed-hitting pitching. The Mets, on the other hand, are a fringe top-five team against righties this year based on weighted-runs-created-plus (wRC+), and are the best team in the league against changeups (16.8 runs above average). Why is this important? Well, that's Logan Webb's most-used pitch.

Based on defensive runs above average, the Mets are also a top-ten defense, whereas the Giants are in the bottom-five, which is notable for two pitchers who tend to pound the zone frequently. Based on xFIP and SIERA, the New York's bullpen ranks in the top five as a bullpen, while San Francisco's ranks in the bottom ten. Shall we go on? Whenever you can get simply the better overall team without a massive expected pitching gap as a notable underdog, it is something to take advantage of. That's the Mets winning this game to a tee.

Pick: Mets Moneyline (+115), Caesars Sportsbook

 

Attention fellow sports bettors! We have some exciting news to share as we are now officially partnered with various sportsbooks and have some sweet sports betting promo offers! Get your deposit bonus, as well as a year of free RotoBaller Premium access, when you sign up with a new account today! After you're signed up, use our picks in this article for spreads, totals, and props to win big.

 

Detroit Tigers @ Minnesota Twins

O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: MIN -250
DET: Beau Brieske | MIN: Sonny Gray

Is it just me, or does every Tigers-Twins game seem to end on a Minnesota walk-off? Just me? Oh well.

Anyways, this game, as evidenced by Minnesota's moneyline, is not expected to come down to the wire. Considering this is a matchup between a top-ten team in run differential and a bottom-five team, that shouldn't be a surprise, though with the Twins' run line at (-119) and Detroit very unlikely to come out victorious (anything can happen in baseball, though!), it's hard to find value on either side here.

Of course, the total is a different story. Anytime you can fade the league's worst-performing offense based on wRC+, it's hard to pass, and that's what you're doing with a Tigers lineup that still is without outfielder Austin Meadows. No team is hitting for less power (.095 ISO) than them, while they rank in the bottom-three in walk rate. This is fantastic news for Twins starter Sonny Gray, who has been comfortably sitting around 92 MPH with his sinker and fastball since coming back from injury, and with his one main flaw being the tendency to walk batters, facing a team that chases certainly helps matters.

Remember, Gray is a pitcher who has been superb (2.72 SIERA) in his limited sample size (3 starts) since coming back from injury and had a 3.90 SIERA with a 19% K-BB ratio in the three seasons before this one. Against the struggling Detroit offense, it's hard to see him not continuing to flourish; the fact he was stretched out to six innings in his last start is also a very positive sign, and a quality start of similar length should be in order.

From there, we'll look for Tigers starter Beau Brieske to hold in his end of the bargain, which is difficult to trust considering he has a 5.43 SIERA and 3.5% K-BB in his first five career starts. For what it's worth, he does rank slightly above-average in Eno Sarris' pitching+ model (100.5), which holds plenty of predictive value. Brieske is probably not going to allow so much contact out of the zone (77.8%) or walk as many batters considering he's pounding the zone at a 52.7% rate. Again, with Gray facing Detroit, we're really looking for a non-blow-up outing here, which is a chance worth taking.

Does this hold some risk? Yes. Is it worth taking the under in this run-scoring environment with the league's worst offense involved? Also yes. As they say, it takes two to tango, and with this game, we're looking at a standard freestyle during a middle school dance. On a Sonny day, go low for Beau!

Pick: Tigers Twins Under 8.5 Runs (-110), FanDuel Sportsbook

 

Good luck, RotoBallers! Stay tuned for more great DFS and betting content throughout the week! For more betting/fantasy content, you can follow me at @talkmvp.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Fantasy Baseball Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Gleyber Torres11 mins ago

Wants "To Be A Yankee For Life"
Brayan Bello22 mins ago

Red Sox's Extension Talks With Brayan Bello May Be Heating Up
Maverick McNealy25 mins ago

Trending Upwards Ahead Of Mexico Open
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.27 mins ago

Feeling Great
Tim Anderson34 mins ago

Marlins Offer Tim Anderson A Starting Job
Michael Kim1 hour ago

In Good Form Heading To Mexico
Davis Thompson1 hour ago

Set For Mexico Open Debut
Cameron Champ1 hour ago

Looks To Continue Success In Mexico
Aaron Rai1 hour ago

Heads To Mexico In Poor Form
Kyle Connor4 hours ago

Registers Third Consecutive Multi-Point Effort
Alex Ovechkin4 hours ago

Pushes Point Streak To Nine Games
Aaron Ekblad4 hours ago

Makes Scoring Return For Panthers
Zach Bogosian5 hours ago

Hurt In Tuesday's Loss
Nic Dowd5 hours ago

Taken Out By An Upper-Body Injury
Viktor Arvidsson5 hours ago

Injured On First Shift
Mark Stone5 hours ago

Exits With Injury Tuesday
De'Aaron Fox5 hours ago

Dealing With Shoulder Injury
Mitchell Robinson5 hours ago

Ditches Walking Boot
Aaron Nesmith5 hours ago

Limited In Practice But Injury Not As Bad As Feared
Patrick Williams6 hours ago

To Remain Out On Thursday
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope6 hours ago

Cleared For Action
Jamal Murray6 hours ago

Good To Go Thursday
Washington Wizards6 hours ago

Justin Champagnie Signs 10-Day Contract With Wizards
Thomas Detry7 hours ago

Looking For Driver To Deliver
Liam Hendriks12 hours ago

Expects To Pitch By Trade Deadline
Luis Arraez12 hours ago

No Extension Talks Yet For Marlins, Luis Arraez
Gary Sánchez14 hours ago

Gary Sanchez's Deal With Brewers Is Back On
Mikal Bridges15 hours ago

Committed To Brooklyn
Thaddeus Young15 hours ago

Officially Signs With Phoenix
Isaiah Stewart15 hours ago

Might Play On Thursday
Lester Quinones15 hours ago

Getting A Standard Contract
Torrey Craig15 hours ago

Out At Least A Few Weeks
PGA16 hours ago

Chris Gotterup Is Struggling So Far In His Rookie Season
Chesson Hadley16 hours ago

Makes Debut At Mexico Open
Austin Eckroat16 hours ago

Looks To Bounce Back
Charley Hoffman16 hours ago

Heads To Mexico Open
Doug Ghim16 hours ago

Heads To Mexico In Good Form
Ryo Hisatsune16 hours ago

Making Mexico Open Debut
Andrew Novak16 hours ago

Looking To Keep A Good Thing Going At Mexico Open
Nicolai Hojgaard16 hours ago

Offers Course-Fit Choice
Robert MacIntyre17 hours ago

Is A Shiny Name That Should Be Avoided
Emiliano Grillo17 hours ago

Continues To Improve Putting
Tyler Duncan17 hours ago

Is A Risky Pick With Upside In Mexico
Tony Finau17 hours ago

The Top Pick In Mexico
Erik Jones18 hours ago

Shows Speed At Daytona Despite Disappointing Run
Ross Chastain18 hours ago

Hail Mary Attempt Falls Short
Shohei Ohtani18 hours ago

Wants To Get 50 At-Bats This Spring
PGA18 hours ago

K.H. Lee Slumping Ahead Of Mexico Open
Carson Young18 hours ago

A Potential Contender At Vidanta
Matt Wallace18 hours ago

Seeking PGA Tour Success At Mexico Open
Michael Rasmussen19 hours ago

Inks Four-Year Extension With Red Wings
John Hunter Nemechek19 hours ago

Scores Career-Best Daytona Finish To Start 2024
Ryan Lindgren19 hours ago

Good To Go Tuesday
Brad Keselowski19 hours ago

Promising Daytona Run Ruined By Lap 191 Wreck
Matt Duchene19 hours ago

A Game-Time Call Tuesday
Miro Heiskanen19 hours ago

Back In Action Tuesday
Morgan Rielly19 hours ago

Suspension Upheld
Shea Theodore19 hours ago

Returns To Golden Knights Lineup
Pittsburgh Steelers20 hours ago

Cameron Heyward Undergoes Offseason Surgery
Alex Cobb20 hours ago

Throws Off Mound
Sonny Gray20 hours ago

To Start On Opening Day
Zay Flowers20 hours ago

Baltimore County Police Suspends Investigation Of Zay Flowers
Riley Greene21 hours ago

Faces Live Pitching Tuesday
Tarik Skubal22 hours ago

Throwing Gas In Camp
Amed Rosario22 hours ago

Agrees With Rays On One-Year Deal
Aaron Judge22 hours ago

Likely To Require "Constant Maintenance"
Michael McDowell23 hours ago

Daytona 500 Race Marred By Mechanical Issue
Denny Hamlin23 hours ago

Has One Of Those Days At Daytona
Chase Elliott23 hours ago

Ends Up 14th At Daytona
Kyle Busch23 hours ago

Exceeds DFS Value In The Daytona 500
Kyle Bradish23 hours ago

Plays Catch Tuesday
Andrew Benintendi23 hours ago

Dealt With Hand Injury Last Year
Ryan Blaney23 hours ago

Late Wreck Derails Ryan Blaney's Strong Start In Title Defense
Francisco Alvarez23 hours ago

Close To Extension With Mets
Matt McLain24 hours ago

Out 5-7 Days With Oblique Injury
Marquise Brown24 hours ago

Set To Leave In Free Agency
Justin Fields1 day ago

Mike Tomlin A Big Fan Of Justin Fields
Christopher Bell1 day ago

Starts Off 2024 With Third-Place Finish At Daytona
Russell Wilson1 day ago

Not Expected Back In Denver
Matthew Slater1 day ago

Hangs Up His Cleats
Logan Thompson1 day ago

Posts First Shutout Versus Sharks
Evan Bouchard1 day ago

Records Three Assists In Monday's Win
Evander Kane1 day ago

Lights The Lamp Twice Monday
Nazem Kadri1 day ago

Picks Up Three Points As Flames Take Down Jets
Jared McCann1 day ago

Scores Twice In Losing Effort
Mathieu Joseph1 day ago

Puts Two Pucks Past Lightning
Connor Bedard1 day ago

Posts New Franchise Record With Three-Point Effort
Trae Young1 day ago

Remains Committed To Hawks
Christian Braun1 day ago

Confident Of Playing Better After Break
Kyle Lowry1 day ago

Saw 76ers As Best Fit For Him
Donte DiVincenzo1 day ago

On Track To Return Versus Philadelphia
Bojan Bogdanovic1 day ago

Ready To Rejoin Action Thursday
Isaiah Hartenstein1 day ago

Expected Back Right After Break
Bradley Beal1 day ago

On Track To Return Thursday
Hyun Jin Ryu1 day ago

Reportedly Signs With Former KBO Team
Sean Monahan2 days ago

Scores Hat Trick In Loss
Jeremy Peña2 days ago

Jeremy Pena Bringing Quieter Batting Stance To 2024
Matt Chapman2 days ago

Mariners Have Discussed Pursuing Matt Chapman
William Byron2 days ago

Wins Daytona 500 As Wrecks Break Out Late
Isaiah Stewart2 days ago

Gets Court Date For Assault Charge
Stephen Curry2 days ago

Doesn't Think He's "Anywhere Close" To Retirement
Noah Gragson2 days ago

Starts Comeback Season With Top-10 At Daytona
AJ Allmendinger2 days ago

Earns Fourth Straight Daytona 500 Top-10 Finish
Alex Bowman2 days ago

Narrowly Misses Out On Daytona 500 Victory
Joey Logano2 days ago

Wrecks Out Of Daytona 500 But Leads Most Laps
Tank Dell2 days ago

Expects To Be Back For OTAs
Joe Mixon2 days ago

Could Be A Salary Cap Casualty
Calvin Ridley2 days ago

Jaguars Plan To Bring Back Calvin Ridley
Tyler Boyd2 days ago

Bengals Expected To Let Tyler Boyd Walk
Deshaun Watson2 days ago

On Track In Rehab From Shoulder Surgery
Ilia Topuria2 days ago

Becomes The New UFC Featherweight Champion
Alexander Volkanovski2 days ago

Loses Title At UFC 298
Henry Cejudo2 days ago

Merab Dvalishvili Defeats Henry Cejudo By Unanimous Decision At UFC 298
Henry Cejudo2 days ago

Takes Decision Loss
Roman Kopylov2 days ago

Gets Submitted At UFC 298
Ross Chastain3 days ago

Aggressiveness Could Pay Dividends at Daytona
Kyle Larson3 days ago

Searching for First-Ever Top 5 in Daytona 500
Chris Buescher3 days ago

No Worries About Chris Buescher Missing Daytona 500 Practice
NASCAR3 days ago

Bubba Wallace: 'The Best I've Felt Mentally'
Michael McDowell3 days ago

Avoid Michael McDowell in DFS for Daytona
Jimmie Johnson3 days ago

Sneaks Into Daytona 500 Field Despite Wreck
Anthony Hernandez3 days ago

Gets Submission Win At UFC 298
Geoff Neal3 days ago

Drops Split Decision At UFC 298
MMA3 days ago

Ian Machado Garry Remains Undefeated
Paulo Costa3 days ago

Loses Entertaining Fight At UFC 298
Robert Whittaker3 days ago

Edges Out Competitive Decision At UFC 298
Pittsburgh Steelers4 days ago

Steelers Appear To Have Internal Division Over QB Position
Kansas City Chiefs5 days ago

Chiefs Pick Up Chris Jones' Option
Saquon Barkley5 days ago

Giants Considering Letting Saquon Barkley Test Free Agency?
Las Vegas Raiders5 days ago

Raiders In The Market For A QB In 2024
Jimmy Garoppolo5 days ago

Suspended Two Games For PEDs
Alexander Volkanovski5 days ago

Set For Sixth Title Defense At UFC 298
Ilia Topuria5 days ago

Has A Chance To Become The New UFC Featherweight Champion
Henry Cejudo5 days ago

Looking To Return To Win Column
Merab Dvalishvili5 days ago

A Favorite At UFC 298
San Francisco 49ers6 days ago

Dre Greenlaw Has Successful Surgery
Cody White6 days ago

Bears Release Eddie Jackson, Cody Whitehair
Daniel Jones6 days ago

Says Rehab Is Going Well
Rhamondre Stevenson6 days ago

Wants To Be Featured Back
Anthony Hernandez6 days ago

Gets Short-Notice Opponent At UFC 298
Geoff Neal6 days ago

Gets Rebooked Against Ian Machado Garry At UFC 298
MMA6 days ago

Ian Machado Garry Gets Top-10 Opponent At UFC 298
Paulo Costa6 days ago

Ends Layoff At UFC 298
Robert Whittaker6 days ago

Looking To Return To Win Column At UFC 298
Geno Smith6 days ago

Seahawks Lock In Geno Smith For 2024
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF

MORE RECENT ARTICLES

 

2024 NFL Draft Top 10 QB Rankings: Pre-Combine Rookie Quarterback Analysis

The Super Bowl might be over, but football never sleeps at RotoBaller! The countdown is on for 2024 fantasy football drafts and NFL teams are preparing for the Combine and upcoming Draft. Matt Donnelly discusses his favorite quarterback in the 2024 NFL Draft class and ranks his top-10 QBs. The season may be over but... Read More


Sam LaPorta - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Breakout Fantasy Football Tight Ends From The 2023 Season

The tight end group is always one of the hardest positions to navigate in fantasy every year. That continued during the 2023-2024 season because taking a tight end early might not have been the right strategy. Travis Kelce, who was a top-seven overall pick in fantasy drafts, was arguably one of the biggest busts at... Read More


Joe Flacco - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Is Joe Flacco A Free Agent? Which Teams Would Be The Best Fit? Fantasy Football Outlook

Veteran quarterback Joe Flacco has played for multiple teams during his 16-year NFL career. He started with the Baltimore Ravens, playing 11 years with the franchise. The former first-round pick had over 38,000 passing yards and 136 touchdowns with the Ravens. Flacco has played for three different teams over the past five years. He spent... Read More


Tee Higgins - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups

Top Landing Spots For Tee Higgins In Free Agency: 2024 Offseason Outlook

Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Tee Higgins is one of the better young wide receivers in the NFL. The star receiver totaled at least 900 receiving yards and six touchdowns in each of his first three career years. Unfortunately, he had a disappointing 2023 season. Higgins set career lows in receptions (42), targets (76), receiving yards... Read More


Saquon Barkley - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

Top Landing Spots For Saquon Barkley In Free Agency: 2024 Offseason Outlook

New York Giants running back Saquon Barkley is one of the most talented players in the NFL. The superstar running back has had at least 960 rushing yards in four of six career seasons, including back-to-back years. The former Penn State star has struggled with injuries in his career. He missed at least three games... Read More


Blake Corum - Fantasy Football Rankings, College FB, RB, NFL Draft Sleepers

Early Look At The 2024 RB Rookie Class For Fantasy Football Dynasty Leagues

The 2024 rookie running back class isn't as good as last year's class. After two running backs were picked in the top 12 in 2023, some analysts are projecting there won't be a single running back picked in the first round. There's no clear-cut number one like Bijan Robinson was last year. Rankings are fluid.... Read More


Dak Prescott - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

Biggest Positional Needs for All 32 NFL Teams - NFC East Edition

Following the 2023 NFL Season, it's quite easy to make the argument that every fanbase for each of the four teams in the NFC East is disappointed with how the season went. The Eagles imploded in the last two months of the season. Hard. The Cowboys got blown out at home in the first round... Read More


Malik Nabers - Fantasy Football Rankings, College FB, WR, NFL Draft Sleepers

2024 NFL Mock Draft Round 1 Predictions (February Update) - Picks from All 32 Teams

That first dreaded Sunday of the year without football arrived and there's no doubt many of you all across the country needed something to fill the void over the weekend. Have no fear, NFL Mock Draft Season is here! While we are still about seven months away from official 2024 NFL action, the good news... Read More


Marvin Mims Jr. - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL DFS Picks

Fantasy Football Dynasty Sleepers Heading Into 2024: Undervalued Wide Receivers

With the 2023 NFL season officially in the books, it's time to turn our attention to the future. The weeks before the 2024 NFL Draft are a busy time for fantasy football managers in dynasty leagues as they wheel and deal in an attempt to improve their position during the offseason. Often, certain players will... Read More


josh allen fantasy football rankings NFL injury news DFS lineup picks

Biggest Positional Needs For All 32 NFL Teams - AFC East Edition

The AFC East was expected to have three teams vying for a playoff spot -- the Bills, Dolphins, and Jets -- but only two of them were able to accomplish those goals. The Jets were forced to pivot very early in the season when star quarterback and offseason acquisition Aaron Rodgers tore his Achilles in... Read More


Jordan Love - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Targets, NFL Injury News

Biggest Breakouts of the 2023 NFL Season: Quarterback

The value of quarterbacks in the fantasy football realm has never been higher. Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts, and Lamar Jackson are or have been in the MVP conversation more often than not. The next generation of signal callers are all pushing to have their names listed among the best. First, they have to... Read More


Raheem Mostert - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups

Fantasy Football Dynasty Sleepers Heading Into 2024: Undervalued Running Backs

With the 2023 NFL season officially over, it's time to turn our attention to the future. This pre-draft time is a busy one for fantasy football managers in dynasty leagues as they wheel and deal in an attempt to improve their position during the offseason. Often, certain players will go under the radar in dynasty... Read More


Kirk Cousins - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Biggest Positional Needs for All 32 NFL Teams - NFC North Edition

The NFC North featured two playoff teams - the Packers and the Lions - from this past season. This division looks to be one of the strongest in the NFL. Detroit is already seen as a Super Bowl and major NFC contender. The Packers started to take steps toward that last season. With the expected... Read More