RADIO
After a one-week hiatus, the PGA Tour is back in action for its final four-week stretch of the calendar year. Last time, we saw Collin Morikawa deliver a vintage Sunday performance to capture the ZOZO Championship by six shots! We've been touting Collin's inevitable return to the winner's circle since the inception of these weekly articles, and for those of y'all who kept the faith, you were rewarded with a 14-1 outright winner - the second straight hit for Flag Hunting and its followers!
Our quest for a third consecutive winner takes us to Mexico's western coast - Cabo San Lucas. El Cardonal is a brand new venue for us that follow the PGA Tour, and brings with it a historical significance as the first ever Tiger Woods design to be used in Championship competition. While the true stars won't be out until Tiger's annual invitational in the Bahamas at the end of the month, this year's field in Cabo features an exciting selection of young stars looking to break into the exclusive club of the game's elite.
Without further ado, here's everything you need to know about El Cardonal Golf Course and the 2023 World Wide Technology Championship!
The Golf Course
El Cardonal at Diamante - Par 72; 7,452 yards
After a 15-year stint in Mayakoba, the World Wide Technology Championship has found a new home on Mexico's opposite coast. El Cardonal at Diamante Resort was the first-ever project in the history of TGR Design, and will hold the distinction of being the first Tiger Woods-designed venue to host a professional event.
But although Tiger made his name by conquering some of the toughest tests this sport has to offer, he'd be the first to admit that El Cardonal isn't quite built to those standards:
“We designed this place more for the weekend warrior-types coming down from LA and such”
“Originally, it wasn’t designed for Championship play”
"You could see good scores but it would still be a little bit challenging"
“There are some courses that are built for championships, but this development is for those looking for wide-open fairways, where guests can have a great time, and get as many rounds in as they possibly can.”
Take one look through the course specs, and these sentiments become even more abundantly apparent: as El Cardonal features one of the most forgiving layouts you'll ever see on the PGA Tour. The fairways measure over 60 yards wide on average - the second widest landing areas we've seen since 2015 (trailing only the Old Course at St. Andrews), and the green complexes measure a whopping 8,300 sq. feet (nearly 40% larger than Tour average).
Although there aren't any regular Tour stops that can boast 60-yard-wide fairways, there are a few courses we can reference that present similarly generous landing areas and easy overall driving tests. The Plantation Course at Kapalua and Vidanta Vallarta both profile more in the "resort course" genre and play as the 1st and 6th easiest course on Tour to gain strokes off the tee.
Looking back at some of the driving metrics at these two courses through the years, it's clear to see that players who possess elite distance off the tee have held a substantial leg up when it comes to gaining strokes with their opening salvo.
Over the last three seasons at these two venues, 8 of the 10 most successful drivers of the ball also happen to currently rank inside the top 25 in Driving Distance on the PGA Tour (Jon Rahm, Patrick Rodgers, Luke List, Cameron Champ, Brent Grant, Cameron Young, Will Gordon, Gary Woodland). With fairways on tap this week that we presume to be even more forgiving, there won't be many impediments in front of the longest hitters in the field to send driver off of nearly every tee box.
As we move into the second shot, one thing that can be said for El Cardonal is the hole-to-hole variety we have on the scorecard. The four Par 3's here measure from 154-208 yards, and similarly to Narashino Country Club we saw at the ZOZO, the Par 4's are largely split into two distinct demographics: with half of the ten two-shotters playing over 460 yards and another four playing under 430.
Combine this diversity of Par 3's and Par 4's with four Par 5's on property that all measure over 550 yards, and we can project a pretty even distribution of approach yardages for players this week. Unlike recent swing venues in Summerlin and Napa that saw a disproportionate number of short irons and wedges into the greens, I've mapped out a potential split of 6 long irons, 5 mid-irons, and 7 short irons/wedges on tap for players this week.
This even distribution of approach yardages disincentivizes the use of specialized proximity splits, and in turn, puts more of an emphasis on general approach stats like Strokes Gained: Approach and Birdie Chances Created. The greens here are quite a bit larger than the PGA Tour average (meaning our projected GIR rates will climb as well), but you'll still need to fire at pins if scoring is as low as we expect.
If anything, the room afforded to players on their second shots puts more of a damper on the role I expect around the green and scrambling stats to play this week. The best ball-strikers in this field will be hitting 80% of their greens in regulation (or more), this week - so if a player is continually having to rely on their short game to save par, they won't be keeping pace with the leaders for very long.
There is a case to be made for stats like three-putt avoidance and approach-putt performance with greens this large, since I'd expect many more par saves to be generated by two-putting from 50-60 feet than from missing a green entirely.
In fact, putting as a whole will be the second most weighted metric in my modeling (after iron play). We've talked about this numerous times throughout the swing season, but as venues get easier and winning scores climb well into the 20s, it becomes much more difficult to sustain a winning charge purely on the back of elite ball-striking. We don't have strokes gained data for the ZOZO Championship, but in the first three events of the Fall Swing (Fortinet, Sanderson Farms, Shriners Children's Open), the eventual champions have gained 8.9, 6.0, and 5.8 strokes putting respectively. I don't expect that formula to change much in this week's shootout - particularly when the field lacks in players that carry elite ceilings with both their driver and iron play.
In terms of the greens themselves, El Cardonal features the first instance we've seen of Paspalum greens since the Mexico Open last May. Paspalum is traditionally a slower, grainier surface seen primarily in tropical climates, and over the last few years, it's gained a reputation for propping up some pretty middling putters when it makes an appearance.
Brandon Wu, Emiliano Grillo, Cameron Champ, and Akshay Bhatia all ranked outside the top 80 in SG: Putting in 2023, yet in a two-year sample at Vidanta Vallarta, the four of them have combined to gain an eye-popping 36 shots on the greens in seven starts. With limited Strokes Gained data sets to draw from, time will tell if these Paspalum specialists truly have a leg up on these surfaces or if we're being asked to pay up for a classic small sample size trap. I do have a small weight towards a player's history on these types of green complexes, but I also don't believe these surfaces to be nearly difficult enough to befuddle players who have shown a repeated aptitude for putting in general.
While this is the part of the handicap that I believe is most up for interpretation, you will need to form some sort of upside case for a player's capability on the greens. If there is one thing we can all agree on, it's that losing strokes putting in a shootout of this magnitude is practically a death sentence for an outright ticket.
Key Stats Roundup:
- With such generous landing areas around El Cardonal, it’s difficult to weigh driving too heavily, but I’ve got a substantial lean to distance over accuracy this week
- Good, all-around iron play will be crucial to continually generate the birdie chances needed to keep the breakneck pace we anticipate. I won’t be factoring in many specialized proximity ranges due to the variety of this layout, but general iron stats like SG: APP and Birdie Chances Created will be among my most weighted single stats
- In terms of direct comps to El Cardonal, Vidanta Vallarta (host of the 2022 and 2023 Mexico Opens), would figure to be the most straightforward given its wide-open layout and similar agronomy. Previous success at other Paspalum courses such as Corales, Cocoa Beach, and Mayakoba will also be weighted, as will a player's general acumen in easier scoring conditions
- Given the fact that we project a winning score well into the 20s, putting will be weighted extremely heavily as well. Bonus points for recent success on the greens in Vidanta, but given the overall lack of data on Paspalum surfaces, I’ll be looking at players coming in with recent momentum on the greens (SG: Putting over a player's last 12, 24, and 36 rounds). I don’t imagine these surfaces being overly difficult to figure out for the best players in the world, but I’d like to see at least some incoming life from the flat stick if I’m going to trust a player to reach the lofty score it will take to capture this Championship
Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium DFS PGA subscription? Like what you read today? You can show your support for Ian by using the discount code BALLER when purchasing a PGA Premium Pass. You get 10% off and full access to all of our Premium PGA articles, DFS tools, and Lineup Optimizer! You also get access to weekly betting picks from Spencer Aguiar, one of the top betting minds in the industry.
End of the Season Totals: @rotoballer @BettorGolfPod
2017 +54.26 Units
2018 +55.88 Units
2019 +27.743 Units
2020 + 37.015 Units
2021 + 68.846 Units
2022 +67.485 UnitsTotal Winnings: +311.229 Units
Total Outright Wins Since 2017: 36
H2H Totals Inside Thread… https://t.co/pNQrSK1rFE
— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) December 12, 2022
WWT Championship Betting Card
Ludvig Aberg (10-1)
I’ve admittedly been a bit later than most on the Aberg bandwagon, as although he showed very early on in his professional career that he had the tools to be one of the best drivers of the ball on the planet, there were also many inconsistencies to be found in the rest of his game that plagued his finishes over his first two months on Tour. Since the end of the 2023 regular season, however, Aberg has swiftly answered any questions his detractors had about his current prospects.
It all started when Ludvig ventured to Europe during the month-long PGA offseason. He first finished 4th at the D+D Real Czech Masters (gaining strokes in all three strokes gained categories for the second time in his career). One week later, he captured his first ever professional victory at the Omega European Masters (chasing down two-time Champion Matt Fitzpatrick on the final day). And two weeks after that, he entered the final round of the European Tour’s flagship event (BMW PGA Championship at Wentworth) as the solo-leader by two. A final round 76 eventually dropped him into a tie for 10th, but at a golf course like Wentworth, in a field headlined by some of the best players on the planet, the 23-year-old Swede proved he really did have the game to eventually conquer some of the biggest championships this sport has to offer.
The last month hasn’t given his supporters reason to stop believing either, as after Ludvig won 2 points for Team Europe as a Ryder Cup rookie, he lapped the field from tee-to-green at the Sanderson Farms - losing in an eventual playoff to Luke List, and fired a Sunday 62 at TPC Summerlin to sneak his way into a T13 finish - his sixth consecutive worldwide Top 15.
Perhaps more important than the results sheet has been the underlying metrics that have carried him on this run. Aberg hasn’t lost strokes on Approach since the Wyndham Championship at the start of August, and leads this field in Birdie of Better %, Birdie Chances Created, and Total Driving over his last 36 rounds. He also ranks 6th in Par 5 Scoring, 6th in Driving Distance and 25th in SG: Putting in that span. Simply put, there are no longer any glaring flaws or inconsistencies I can point to in his current skillset.
The generous fairways at El Cardonal will allow the Swede to play offense all week long, and given the recent progression we’ve seen in his approach play, the flags this week may as well be bulls-eyes for this Scandinavian sharpshooter. After less than six months as a professional, Aberg seems well past due for his first win on U.S. soil, and should enter this championship with the confidence that he’s the man to beat should his recent run of form continue.
Cameron Champ (50-1)
The 60-plus yard-wide fairways here in Los Cabos will mean one thing for a driver of Cam Champ's caliber: offense. Champ has made a living tearing apart golf courses without proper protection for off-line tee shots, and some of his most recent stints in contention have come at El Cardonal's closest Tour comparable: Vidanta Vallarta. Champ has finished 8th and 6th in two starts across the Gulf of California, and has found a particular comfort on the same Paspalum surfaces we'll see this week.
He's gained nearly 9 strokes putting in 8 recorded rounds around Vidanta, and comes into Los Cabos on the back of a run of seven consecutive starts in which he’s gained strokes on approach. I don't anticipate Cam having any trouble bringing El Cardonal's benign layout to its knees with one of the most powerful weapons in the game, and if the putter can recapture some of its familiar magic south of the border, don't be at all surprised if he's gunning for his 4th PGA Tour win on Sunday afternoon
Callum Tarren (65-1)
Although Callum can't quite boast the same lofty numbers as Cam in the distance department, the 33-year-old Englishman has proven himself to be a much more well-rounded ball striker. In addition to being one of the 20 longest hitters on the PGA Tour, Tarren rates out 19th in this field in SG: APP and 6th in Birdie Chances Created over his last 36 rounds.
He's currently on a string of five straight tournaments in which he's gained strokes to the field with his iron play, and although his acumen on Paspalum isn't as extensive as Cam's, he does come into the week noticeably more confidence on the greens: having gained strokes putting in five of his last six recorded starts. With his enticing ball-striking splits, two top-15s since the start of August, and a 5th-place finish last year at another paspalum course in Puerto Rico, Tarren has all the tools I'm looking for in a longshot contender at Diamante.
Erik Van Rooyan (80-1)
In a field largely devoid of reliable outright options, sometimes the best course of action is to latch onto the hot hand. Erik Van Rooyan certainly fits into this category, as the South African has put together a stellar run of play to start his 2024 campaign. Not only has he placed 30th, 16th, and 23rd over his first three swing season starts, but in two of the European Tour's marquee fall events (the Irish Open and Omega European Masters), Van Rooyan recorded finishes of 8th and 16th in fields that included some of the top names in world golf (Rory McIlroy, Matt Fitzpatrick, Shane Lowry, Ludvig Aberg, Min Woo Lee, etc). Over this five-start stretch, EVR has gained an average of 3.57 shots on Approach per tournament - rating out as the 2nd best overall ball-striker in this field since the start of August.
Now Van Rooyan gets to see a golf course that should mitigate one of his greatest long-term weaknesses (driving accuracy), and return to a part of the world where he put together rounds of 64-66 to enter the weekend in a tie for 2nd last spring (2023 Mexico Open at Vidanta). For a player who has already won 4 times around the world since 2017, 80-1 is an awfully generous number when he's showing this type of form.
Chesson Hadley (90-1)
I'll admit that this one is a bit of a curveball given the general ethos of my card to this point, but no matter what adjustments I made in the modeling, my numbers continue to love Chesson Hadley at Diamante. The 2014 Champion in Puerto Rico (paspalum wink, wink), has put together quite a run of iron play over the last few months. In five starts since the end of July, Hadley's gained an average of 3.38 strokes on Approach per tournament (4th in the field in that span). The 7.6 strokes he gained at the Shriner's earlier last month was the fourth-best mark of his entire career (dating over 11 years and 244 starts), and like Van Rooyan, the generous landing areas on offer at El Cardonal should mitigate one of his biggest long-term flaws (driving accuracy).
If the iron play can stay hot, Chesson's always been known as one of the PGA Tour's most prolific putters - having not ranked outside the top 30 in SG: Putting since 2019, and he comes into Los Cabos as the 4th best putter in this field over his last 36 rounds. It's been some time since I entered a week with any sort of expectation on the Raleigh, NC native, but at 90-1, I'm more than willing to trust my numbers and back my fellow Carolinian.
Best of luck guys, and Happy Hunting!
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