RADIO
Between Sunday's Course Preview piece (found right here on RotoBaller), and last night's podcast on Flag Hunting (currently posted on our Twitter page), we've given y'all every possible trend, key stat, and player take needed to make the most educated betting decisions possible in the opening week of the 2024 PGA Season. This Wednesday article will now serve as a final bow to wrap up a jam-packed week of PGA content at Flag Hunting. No fluff, no rants or superfluous soliloquies, just the entirety of our 2024 Sentry outright betting card.
The five names on this betting card are aimed at returning ~6.5 times our investment in a given week (including projected live adds). Because of the inflated odds associated with the outright market, it becomes even more imperative to remain disciplined when setting your unit allocations from this article's picks. Golf outright betting is a notoriously fickle beast, and multiple month-long droughts are very much within the range of outcomes. However, at these prices, one single hit can pay off many weeks of bad luck or poor decision-making.
In the two-year history at Flag Hunting, we've been fortunate enough to cash a total of 21 outright winners (a 21.9% hit rate), for a profit of over $15,000 (betting roughly $350 per week), and an aggregate ROI of 44.6%. The volatility of the sport means I can't promise you a winner in any given tournament, but if you're willing to bet methodically and stick with the process, the outright golf betting market has the potential to be one of the most profitable (and enjoyable), betting sweats in the business. But I suppose I'd better keep my word about the necessary rants, so with no further ado, here's every bet I've made for the 2024 Sony Open!
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American Express Betting Card
Tom Kim (+3000)
Tom Kim with a dart at the fifth! 🎯
Looking for his third birdie in four holes and stretch his lead to three. #CazooOpenDeFrance pic.twitter.com/MnZCRMvAFO
— DP World Tour (@DPWorldTour) September 22, 2023
I was a big purveyor of Tom Kim stock heading into the New Year, and although his 45th-place finish at Kapalua was far from the start we were hoping for, I'm not any less bullish on his profile as we head into start number two.
Most of the struggles we saw in Hawaii came from an unexpected source, as Tom lost over five shots on the greens over his four days at the Sentry. That mark sits as the fourth-worst performance of his entire career, and broke a run of ten consecutive positive putting performances from July to November in the process.
The good news is that Tom beat the field average on Approach over the four days (continuing a run of 9/10 tournaments with a positive SG: APP rating), and now returns to a venue where gained over four shots in two recorded rounds with his irons and putter in a sixth-place finish last year.
The positional layout of PGA West should work wonders for Kim's profile, as Tom ranks third in this field in driving accuracy, sixth in Birdie or Better percentage, sixth in Par 5 scoring, and second in SG: Total in Easy Scoring Conditions. With eight straight top-25 finishes to end his 2023, don't let four days of poor putting deter you -- Tom Kim should still be considered one of the hottest commodities in the game.
J.T. Poston (+3750)
J.T. Poston sets up birdie with a fantastic approach from the rough 132 yards out on the 13th. 🎯
📺: Golf Channel and @peacock pic.twitter.com/To8KpMeDoH
— Golf Channel (@GolfChannel) August 3, 2023
As another week passes on the PGA Tour, it becomes more and more difficult to deny the resurgence of the 30-year-old from Hickory, North Carolina. With a Sunday 61 catapulting him to 6th on the final Sony Open leaderboard, J.T. Poston has officially recorded SEVEN finishes of seventh or better over his last 11 Tour starts.
I don't believe it is a coincidence that this run has coincided with the schedule transitioning to shorter, more positional setups, as Poston has historically made his biggest mark as a professional on these sorts of venues. His two career victories have come at Sedgefield and TPC Deere Run (both easier, wedge-intensive layouts where driver is often taken out of the hands of many of the preeminent power players), and this six-month run has seen Poston perform at courses that profile extraordinarily similarly to those two stops (TPC Summerlin, Wai'alae, Kapalua, etc).
With venues like Torrey Pines, Riviera, and Bay Hill quickly approaching, the friendly confines of PGA West might be the best chance Poston will have in a few months to pay off this career-best stretch with his third PGA Tour Title. Statistically, it's hard to find a better course fit (even in a field this loaded at the top), as J.T. ranks first in SG: Putting, second in Birdie Chances Created, fifth in wedge proximity <125, and ninth in SG: Approach over his last 40 rounds. He's recorded two finishes of 7th or better here since 2019, and comes into the week on the back of the sixth-best single-round performance (+6.9 SG: Total), of his entire career (608 recorded rounds). I'm more than happy to ride the hot hand at almost 40-1.
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Chris Kirk (+5200)
Fourth birdie of the day gets Chris Kirk to -9 and 1 back ⬆️ pic.twitter.com/tSXJSY58Um
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) January 14, 2023
Talking about a hot hand, there can't be many players in the world feeling better coming out of the Aloha Swing than Chris Kirk. After conquering some of the biggest names in the sport on Maui to start the year, Kirk entered the very next weekend as one of the favorites to go back-to-back on Oahu. Closing rounds of 67-70 weren't quite enough to keep pace with the likes of Murray, Bradley, or An, but from a statistical standpoint, it's hard to imagine Chris is too upset with the state of his game as the Tour moves Stateside.
Kirk gained an eye-popping 11.97 shots as a ball-striker over four rounds at Wai'alae, ranking 4th in the field last week off-the-tee, and 1st in the field on approach. To put that into perspective, in his two wins at Honda and Sentry within the last 10 months, Kirk has gained a cumulative total of 11.8 shots between his driver and iron play in eight total rounds.
The forward momentum doesn't seem likely to stop this week either, as Kirk recorded a 3rd place finish here at PGA West last season -- leading the field from tee to green over his two rounds on the Stadium Course in the process. He rates out 2nd in this field in Birdie Chances Created, 3rd in Proximity from inside 125 yards, and 7th in SG: Total in Easy Scoring Conditions. It may be hard to believe Chris Kirk could open 2024 on a Jon Rahm type of run, but that skepticism is the only reason I can fathom why he sits above 50-1 on the outright odds board.
Si Woo Kim (+5750)
Birdie to take the outright lead ...
... Bang! 💪
Si Woo Kim leads by 1 heading to 18. pic.twitter.com/SaTZQBF9sL
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) January 24, 2021
If there are two things we know about Si Woo Kim, it's that he loves himself a Pete Dye design, and when the ball-striking begins to fire, he's capable of taking down any tournament on the PGA Tour. The 28-year-old Korean has made a living on short, positional tests just like the one on tap this week, notching victories at TPC Sawgrass, Sedgefield, and Waialae to go with his 2021 triumph at PGA West.
He routinely rates out as one of the most reliable drivers on the entire PGA Tour -- ranking fourth in this field over his last 50 rounds, and although his title defense on Oahu last week didn't go quite as planned (8-under-par; tied for 42nd), the 6.2 strokes he gained with his ball-striking were the best he's hit it since last year's FedEx Cup playoffs.
Kim has recorded finishes of 1st, 9th, 11th, and 22nd in five career appearances at PGA West, which makes it all the more puzzling why he's being priced as a relative afterthought on outright oddsboards. Perhaps more encouraging than the results is the fact that Kim has never lost strokes putting on these surfaces in any of those five starts. When you combine his recent play at Sony with this positive history on these greens, an outright number >50-1 is too big to ignore.
Simply put, I've seen this movie too many times to ignore. A confident Si Woo at a golf course he's comfortable on spells nothing but trouble for the rest of this field. I'll gladly take any number over 50-1 as he attempts to repeat the trick from three years ago.
Tom Hoge (+15050)
Tom Hoge strikes a precise approach from the fairway to set up a tap-in birdie. 🎯
📺 Golf Channel and @peacockTV
💻 https://t.co/FajkyVIz0F pic.twitter.com/VGy9aMtz7U— Golf Channel (@GolfChannel) September 15, 2022
It's not often you can find one of the truly elite ball-strikers in the field listed alongside players making their first trip around the sun as PGA Tour members. But at 150-1, that's exactly what we've got in Tom Hoge this week. His overall profile is far from perfect, but the things Hoge excels at are perfectly suited for the questions asked by the three courses at PGA West.
Hoge doesn't just lead this field, he leads the entire PGA Tour in Birdie or Better Percentage from <125 yards since the start of last year. He ranks 2nd in Proximity on approach shots from that range and has rated out above field-average in driving accuracy in every start he's made here since 2018.
The reason for this severe price reduction likely has to do with the rough start he's had in the New Year. Tom finished 38th out of just 59 entries at Kapalua two weeks ago before missing the cut on the number last week at Wai'alae. However, in those six recorded rounds, Hoge gained a total of 4.5 shots on approach, and the short, easy setup we have on tap this week should be the perfect spot for him to get his year back on track.
Hoge's recorded finishes of 2nd, 6th, and 32nd here at the AmEx since 2020, and when searching through his top career finishes, you'll notice a lot of courses that profile as PGA West's top corollaries.
- 1st at Pebble Beach, 2022: short, positional, wedge-intensive. Fairly easy scoring conditions without wind.
- 4th, 7th, 14th, 24th at TPC Summerlin since 2020: Short desert golf course in a similar part of the country. Expect a lot of wedge shots and birdies
- 4th at RSM Classic, 2021: Similar to Pebble, Sea Island is more prone to inclement weather with its proximity to the coast, but is still extremely wedge-intensive with winning scores deep into the 20's.
- 3rd at PLAYERS Championship, 2023: Quite literally the blueprint by which this week's Stadium Course was built. Pete Dye design with a ton of water -- key emphasis on positional driving acumen and approach play.
Keep in mind that just 12 months ago, we were all lining up to bet Hoge at 35/40-1 here at PGA West. This year, at nearly 4x the outright number, I don't believe the profile has changed nearly enough to warrant this sort of drastic price drop. If this run of longshot winners on the PGA Tour is truly destined to continue, Hoge is the one name >100-1 I'm comfortable tying my money to pre-tournament.
Best of luck guys, and Happy Hunting!
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